As we are closing in on 30 November there will inevitably be new articles about the King's death. The latest issue of the historical magazine Populär historia 2018:9 boldly leads the way. The editor asked Peter Englund to write about the present state of research.
Englund, who has never been a friend of the assassination theory, dismisses it quickly, He then goes on to deal with the other two - Norwegian musket ball and Norwegian case or canister shot. Englund declares that the most simple and most logical is the one presented by the engineer Svante Ståhl in 2005. According to Ståhl the King was hit by a small iron ball shot from the fortress Overberget some 600 meters away. It was previously assumed that there wasn't sufficiently small iron balls (18-20 mm) for this scenario to be possible, but Ståhl hade come in contact with the Norwegian officer and artillery expert Odd T. Fjeld, who in the 1990's had discovered that there were. Or had he?
Ståhls reasoning is based on an interpretation of a certain passage in one of the ammuntion records for the fortress. I focused on the weight "lod" and the meaning of "lödig". When it came to ammunition for muskets "lödig" in Denmark-Norway undoubtedly had to do with parts of a pund, i.e. a "10-lödig" lead ball weighed 1/10 of a pund, but did it mean the same when used about iron balls in canister and case shot?
Fjeld and Ståhl was sure it did, so Ståhl presented the following solution:
1. Danish-Norwegian case shot contained "20-25 or more wrought iron balls".
2. The case shot weighed about the same as the standard cannonball for a certain caliber.
3. The King was hit by a small iron ball fired from either an 6-pounder or an 18-pounder.
4.This small wrought iron ball had a diameter of 20 mm and weighed about 32 grams.
Englund deemed this the simplest and most logical solution. I'd say it is not, as there is a glaring weakness. Point 1 is correct, point 2 as well. Point 3 - OK, that's a theory. But no 4? A case shot for a 6-pounder should weigh about 3 kg and one for an 18-punder about 9 kg, but 25 iron balls at 32 grams à piece only weighs 800 grams!
So as no 1 and no 2 is correct, no 4 must be completely mistaken. Each iron ball in a case shot for a 6-pounder must weigh about 120 grams and in a case shot for an 18-punder about 360 grams - otherwise no 1 is incorrect (and it isn't).
So Ståhl's theory iis not the simplest and most logical - it is in fact the most illogical and the most unlikely.