A few predictions:

By the year 2020, population-stabilization will be the world's number one priority, and people will wonder why the issue was downplayed for so long. Today's staunch conservatives will finally see environmentalism as the key to survival, rather than an economic roadblock. The threat of war over oil, land, water and food will make constant headlines. Overcrowding in recreation areas, severe crime in major cities, and shrinking incomes will be a constant worry. Most of these things are already occurring. The main difference will be the scale and the perceived root cause. Concern over physical resource limits will replace our current obsession with dollar costs. Conservation will be mandated by necessity, not just law.

When the state of the world makes it clear to everyone that our grow-forever experiment is pointless, people will look back and wish that there had been more conserve-atives and fewer selfish money-grubbers making crucial decisions. Old Rush Limbaugh broadcasts (railing against conservation) will be replayed as reminders of Man's ignorance. Today's widely-held philosophy of "I got mine/get while the getting's good" will be shunned.

But if things do turn out better than expected, it will not be by chance. It will be due to the foresight of planners, biologists and environmentalists who realize that today's "radical" warnings are just based on common sense. Only by preparing for worst-case scenarios can we guarantee the best possible future. We can't just say "I'm tired of hearing bad news, bring back Ronald Reagan." Pessimism associated with environmental warnings will turn to optimism only if everyone kicks the growth habit and deals with reality.


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