The UMNO youth leader, Dato' Seri Hishammuddin Hussein, revealed an
unexpected truth when he challenged the PAS youth leader, Haji Mahfuz
Omar, to a televised debate on CNBC:  the hope that the PAS leader would
reject it.  For unbeknowst to him, the ground and focus of UMNO's
political target changed.  The UMNO reaction was unexpected:  the Wanita
chief, Dr Siti Zaharah, was cutting in her comments about wasting time
on inconsequentials;  the euphoric UMNO support he expected did not go
beyond a feeble statement from the Prime Minister.  It was, in short,
ignored even by UMNO.  So, Hishammuddin's call to Mahfuz to resign for
rejecting it is farcical to say the least;  why did he not when he
refused to turn up at the UKM campus last month?  This episode revealed
an unexpected change of electoral strategy in UMNO.  Suddenly, the
target is not PAS, which it once believed to be more dangerous than
Keadilan.  The months proved it wrong:  Keadilan burrowed into UMNO
strongholds so thoroughly and in stealth, its public statements often a
diversionary exercise to mask the reality that UMNO was fooled.  UMNO
now scrambles.  It now gears up to address the Keadilan threat.  I was
surprised by the UMNO reaction to Keadilan Wanita chief Nell Onn's
reported threat -- which incidentally she said she did not make -- to
stand against her nephew, Hishammuddin Onn.  That sent shivers down the
UMNO spine, especially in Johore and the Tenggaroh parliamentary
constituency.

     Keadilan proves to be a more determined opponent to UMNO than
Semangat '46 ever was.  The DAP and PAS, despite their public affront at
the newcomer into their ranks, think so too.  The difficulties in
getting an opposition front working has as much to do with this as the
narrowing of party positions that are rooted in its rhetoric.  Keadilan
news has gone off the media, with UMNO attacks, especially by the Prime
Minister, ignored by the party high command.  UMNO's nervousness is
clear.  The PAS's emphasis on an Islamic code re-emerges with a
vengeance:  the Kelantan mentri besar's promise to appoint only ugly
women into the civil service is not as silly as it seems on the surface.
If it was silly, UMNO, the National Front component parties, the women's
organisations and NGOs would have excoriated him.  But none has.  He has
framed the debate in Islamic terms to throw a spanner in the works in
the Malay vote bank.  The government's minister in charge of Islam, IKIM
and other government-sponsored Islamic bodies kept quiet.  Why?  Because
they cannot challenge this without upsetting the government's vote bank.
It is also an attempt to wean the ground away from Keadilan.  The DAP
debate is caught in this so much that it cannot come to an electoral
pact with PAS without its ground angry at having "sold out".

     In this confusion, Keadilan remains in the news with its well-aimed
cannons lobbed at UMNO and the National Front.  The jailed deputy prime
minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, has filed a police report accusing
the Prime Minister, the Attorney General and the DPP Abdul Gani Patail
of corruption -- the same charge for which he was jailed for six years.
The government does not react, but the object of his attack -- Datin
Rafidah Aziz, the minister for international trade and industry, is
nervous;  she says she had been cleared;  but the issue is not whether
she has been cleared or not;  the issue is that the Prime Minister would
not allow the prosecution to proceed when the Attorney-General Chambers
recommended a clear case of corrupt practice on the part of the cabinet
minister.  Another police report along the same lines but involving
another cabinet minister is in the works.  Keadilan appears unconcerned
with the havoc caused against them, but its refusal to react to these
charged attacks begins to have an impact:  the public ignores them.  As
one old UMNO hand said to me today:  "If the opposition cannot get its
act together, why then is the Prime Minister and UMNO attacking them
without relent, not giving them a chance to respond?"

     Even more worrisome for the National Front and UMNO is that it has
to contain two conflagarations:  the Anwar finger-pointing questions the
public integrity of the Prime Minister and senior members of his
cabinet;  and the other extreme of defining the political debate in
Islamic terms.  Either can scuttle the political debate.  The UMNO
machine still gives it an edge in the coming elections:  the DAP's
belief that its two-thirds majority is safe appears correct at this
stage, although I am not sanguine about that now as I was a month ago.
The non-Malay National Front partners are running for their lives: their
candidates depend on Malay support to win;  with the Malay ground
insecure, they cannot be sure.  The support the opposition would or
would not get from Sabah and Sarawak could well be crucial to the
National Front retaining its two-thirds majority.  But UMNO cannot be
written off:  it knows only too well that a spell on the opposition
benches could well be its end.  Its life-long loyal friends cannot
either, but they have a choice to join the winning side.  The UMNO
dalang's actions are less sure than it has been.  I am inclined to
believe that if UMNO does not obtain its two-thirds majority, it could
well lose;  and if it does retain its two-thirds majority, several of
his key figures would have to find other employment than members of
parliament.  But this assessment excludes the elections in the 13
states.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my