by
M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my

However much the Prime Minister denies it, this year's UMNO General Assembly is on the defensive, Dr. Mahathir's presidential speech underlining it starkly against continued worry about the "Anwar factor".
He devoted an inordinately long part of his speech to it, and attacking PAS, to suggest that both have eaten into its traditional Malay heartland.  He cleverly diverted the import of his remarks to an alleged "surprise" announcement, which he later modified to suggest that the surprise announcement is that there is no surprice.  But the theme of the Assembly is to spout hellfire and brimstone at foreigners who back the former UMNO deputy president, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, now serving a six-year jail sentence in Sungei Buloh prison.  

His speech, as UMNO presidential speeches go, was ho-hum.  Nothing new, nothing shocking, nothing brilliant, a restatement of his previous speeches, with special emphasis on what his protege did and does to destroy the nation.  That this UMNO general assembly harps on this underlies its insecurity, even if no one believes UMNO and the National Front is about to learn how to behave as opposition members in the next Dewan Rakyat.  It could even get its two-thirds majority, but the Malay cultural ground certainly does look for an alternative to represent its interests.  In the absence of one, UMNO would remain.  The Malay cultural heartland is conservative, and while the Anwar factor has damaged that linkage, it would remain for the moment.

UMNO lost the public relations edge once again.  Promising a surprise, and not producing it, appears to be an attempt to keep the UMNO ground waiting for it.  The Prime Minister has -- at last --brought the Tengku Razaleigh faction into the centre of the party:  they can now be considered for posts in the government and as candidates in the coming general elections.  The Tengku, like Dato' Seri Anwar, had independent support within UMNO, and whose opposition has dogged and almost derailed the Prime Minister.  Numerous UMNO stalwarts told me yesterday that the Parti Keadilan Negara factor would not impact upon UMNO, and that it would be a matter of time before they returned to the fold.  But the Tengku Razaleigh revolt in 1987 was a revolt of a chief
who could easily be contained.  The Anwar revolt ignored the chiefs and went to the Malay ground for support, and hence more serious.  The Tengku represented the second generation of UMNO leaders and Anwar the
third.  The Prime Minister wooed the second generation back into the fold, but the Anwar supporters, with a view of UMNO as a political party and not a movement, is less amenable to blandishments that their elders
would heartily accept.  Dr Mahathir's hurt comment that he, and not Anwar, is the victim of a conspiracy unfortunately remains unbelievable to most.  And he understands only too well he needs the Tengku Razaleigh
crowd to protect him from the Anwar crowd. 

Dr Mahathir's predicament stems from a widely held view within the Malay community that his days as feudal overlord are numbered.  It is no more the mechanics of what Anwar did or did not do that is at stake.  He
tries hard to paint Anwar as the man who should be excoriated, but this fall on deaf ears.  Whether Anwar is guilty or not is no more the issue; he probably is fatally damaged, the movement he initiated takes a life of its own, challenging the government from a different premise.  No one seriously believes that Anwar would not be convicted of the present charges, whatever mistakes the prosecution makes and continues to make which, in neutral eyes, inhibits a fair trial.  Dr Mahathir's praise for the soundness of Malaysia's judicial system is neither here nor there.

He cannot plead ignorance at the black eye his Inspector-General of Police inflicted on his recently dismissed deputy prime minister:  he was minister for home affairs, and he takes full responsibility for what happened, whether he knew of it or not.  As one high commissioner of a foreign country told me last night:  "I delegate my authority but not responsibility."  And in the official attempt to demonize Dato' Seri Anwar, it is Anwar that has the edge.  The black eye Tan Sri Rahim Noor dealt him placed Dr Mahathir and his administration on the defensive, locally and overseas;  forced him to leave the home ministry, forced him to appoint a commission of inquiry, forced him to charge Tan Sri Rahim. Even UMNO members remain queasy at what happened. 

This UMNO General Assembly is Dr Mahathir's first in which he is on the defensive.  Every action of his is framed within an uncertainty on how the Anwar faction would react.  Releasing a second list of Anwar's
cronies would be of no relevance unless a list of the government cronies and the prime minister's children list of what they got is also included;  otherwise, this is a continuation of the exercise to damn the deputy who dared challenge him.  It must gall him that there is not the steady stream of Keadilan members who cross over to UMNO convinced of Keadilan's unscrupulousness and lack of commitment to the Malay race. Instead, the last I heard is that at least 38 MPs and state assemblymen in UMNO may or may not cross over to Keadilan, with another 18 doubtful; denying them seats in the coming general elections could well force them to challenge UMNO candidates.  The importance of the Anwar revolt is that it struck right into the centre of UMNO but not by attacking it -- as Tengku Razaleigh did -- but by getting the Malay heartland to revolt. In many ways, UMNO remains as solid in its commitment to the Malay heartland as it always has been.  But the heartland itself has its perception that UMNO under Dr Mahathir is not as committed to their interests as it once was.  This accounts for the unusual space provided in the UMNO president's speech to destroy Anwar and PAS.  The euphoria that marked previous assemblies was much devalued this year.  The UMNO delegate this year puts on a brave front of renewed unity amidsts fears this could well be wishful thinking.  The ground is fractured, but the Mahathir speech yesterday underscored the cracks papered over for the impending general elections, likely within two months, than an attempt to resolve the underlying fundamental differences with the Malay cultural community.  The uncertainty cann only continue, even with a two-thirds majority.