CDnow


Week 1, September 6th

Late Play: Denver -7.5 New England
Denver has the phsychological(sp?) advantage, as well as a physical advantage here. Monday night in Denver has always been a terrible place to play for New England, especially with a overhauled offense, and no "set in stone" RB. Their defense is mediocre, but not strong enough to stand up to John Elway and Terrell Davis' offense. Denver has a great shot at the Super Bowl again, and New England isn't strong enough to contest Denver Tonight. I like Denver -7.5 and [I didn't bet it, so it won't count with/against my record] the UNDER 44.5

#1 Seattle (-3) Philadelphia
Seattle is comming off a great pre season, with three great Quarterbacks [Warren Moon, Jon Kitna, and John Friez]. The offensive line has gotten stronger with the addition of Brian Habib from Denver and a new Center from Detroit (can't think of his name right now!!!). The receivers have gotten strong with Joey Galloway leading the pack, and the offense has been running smothly (in the pre season). On defense, they're mediocre, with the secondary being the softer link. But, against Philadelphia, I don't think there will be to much of a problem. Philadelphia hasn't been cooperating as a team throughout the pre season. Their offensive passing is the only strong point (with their great Running back off to Seattle..), and can't lean on that all game. Their defense isn't good at all. With Warren Moon at the helm for Seattle, I think its a gift from the Books that the line is only (-3).

#2 Pittsburgh (-3) Baltimore / OVER 42
Again in this game the books are giving it a way. In the pre season Pittsburgh has showed signs of slipping down hill, but it's far from that. Pittsburgh's young talent is blossoming (but the loss of all the OLmen, and Yancey Thingpen really HURT), with Kordell Stwerert gaining more knowledge as his career progresses. The Bus is still operating smoothly (now heatly) and can still give a 100 yard rushing game (especially agaisn't Baltimore's DL). Baltimore lost one of its best receivers to Kansas City, and have a week link in the middle at center. The new center has caused some problems and allowed Jim Harbaugh to be sacked during the Pre Season, and I don't see why that won't continue. Otherwise, the Ravens OL is quite sturdy. The Books are giving this one away at (-3) because Baltimore has been able to put up points against other team's 2nd string defense (beat the Jets 33-0). However, come pre season, Coach Cowher will expect his team to play well.. and with the talent they have I don't see any reason they won't. I like Pittsburgh (-3)/OVER 42

#3 Tampa Bay +3 Minnesota
Minnesota has been the team in the spotlight, not letting the first two teams score any points against them in the pre season. However, their defense is no match for Tampa Bay's redesigned offense. With new WR Bert Emanuel, they will be red hot, and a possible super bowl contender. Minnesota is overrated in this game because of the way they've played in the pre season. They're a great team, but it was because the coach let the first team play longer in an agreement with the owner to get more people to come watch the game. QB Brad Johnson is physically able to play, but must be mentaly ready... I don't think he is. We'll see after the first hit he takes on Sunday. I like Tampa Bay (+3)

Atlanta +4.5 Carolina
Carolina's starting to look good, but not that good. They need more time. Atlanta isn't a good team recently, but showed a great effort going 6-2 the last 8 games to finish at 7-9. They've come together behind a top rated QB (if he can stay healthy) in Chris Chandler. I don't think Carolina can cover that many points... I like Atlanta +4.5

Tennessee +1.5 Cincinnatti
Another gift from the Books. Jeff Blake Lost his Job, the defensive backs are mediocre... Tennessee is looking good. With Yancey Thingpen, Steve "Air" McNair has another threat (not to mention Eddie George).I think Tennessee will win outright by a lot. I like Tennessee +1.5

New Orleans (+4) St. Louis
Tony Banks is still just a mediocre QB. His FB and RB are new, and the offense still doesn't have the depth it needs to get better. New Orleans looks good on offense, but it's their defense that needs more work. Their secondary is very thin, and can't hold to many teams on the passing game. Running is what ST L wants to establish. This would be the only way New Orleans has a way to stop them. St. Louis' defense isn't something people talk about either. I took this game because I think New Orleans can cover (and maybe win outright). Mike Ditka is still a mean as hell coach, and has had a great deal of time to whip his players in to men. I like NO +4.


Week 2 September 13

San Diego +7
Tampa Bay +7
Kansas City +4
Jets -5.5



Week 3 September 20

Baltimore +7.5
Minnesota -6.5
Indianapolis +9
Washington +8.5 OVER 43
Miami -2.5 UNDER 37
Chicago +7.5
NE/TEN OVER 38
AZ -4.5


Week 4, September 27th

#1 Kansas City -8 Philadelphia
This is a very good game, and there are many things that point to Kansas City. First, its good to point out it's one of the NFLs best defensive teams against the NFLs worst overall team. The Books are very generous giving this game at only 8.

Here are a few reasons I like KC:
The eagles have a 51.7 ypp average. This means for every point, they have to travel 51.7 yards. This is over half the field just to get one point. Since KCs defense is so good, this will probably be much more in tomarrow's game.
I like Kc(-8)

#2 Pittsburgh -3 Seattle
First of all, Seattle hasn't beat a +.500 team yet this season. Now they have a real test. They have to play against a very good, underachieving (as of right now) team that is looking for MAJOR revenge, after loosing an embarrassing game in a shut out, 21-0 against Miami last week. Plus, this isn't a game Seattle will put all their energy into, so to speak. Their next two games are division games and those games are what matters in the playoff race (the other ones do too, but the division games are what teams prepare for).

As for stats, Pittsburgh only gives up 3.6 yards rushing per game, while the Seahawks give up 4.7 yards rushing per game. This is a great chance for Jerome Bettis to have a huge game. If they can establish the running game, they can rip the Seattle secondary apart. Otherwise both teams are equally matched. Plus, Pittsburgh is playing at home (which doesn't mean much, but I thought I'd throw that in :).

I like Pittsburgh -3

#3 Dallas -5 Oakland
First, the stats.

Funny thing here, Deion Sanders worked at quarterback a couple of days. He plays defense CB, Offensive WR, Special team punt return, why not QB? Actually they worked him as an option quarterback for situations like 3rd and inches, 4th and inches, etc.

Dallas has a much stronger all around team, getting 144 yards per game (avg), while the Raiders give up 120.

Another point is Oakland has a 10.4 Dypp (defensive yards per point - 2nd to last). This just basically shows the whole defense (represented by a number) in which a team has to travel only 10.4 yards to obtain one point. While Dallas has a 12.1 yards per point average. Oakland also gives up a lot of penalties. Their offensive line obviously hasn't settled down.

I like Dallas -5

San Diego +1 NyGiants
The Giants still haven't come together. Either last year was a fluke, and they just need time or this team is a waste. Rookie quarterback Ryan Leaf for San Diego had a terrible game, going 1-15 passing, picked off twice, and a total of 4 yards passing. When a rookie QB has a game like this he will almost always come back strong. This is still a college football QB [and although I don't handicap college football] I know the QBs really take loosing hard. I think SD will kill the Giants. The Chargers also have a great defense. The Giants have to look forward to another road game, where they play the Bucs @ Tampa.

I like SD+1

I also like Tennessee +3.
I would rather not disclose my reasons for the information I have on this game is not known to the public (and I would like to keep it like that). I rarely do this, but this week I can't give an analysis on this game. I do like Tennessee though.

Week 5

#1 Miami +2 1/5 NYJets : OVER 39 1/2
This game means a lot to the Jets. They need to get back on track, after starting 0-2, then winning 44-6 in Week 3 before their bye week to go 1-2. The Jets have a few offensive weapons: Their passing (Rated #1 at 227 yrds/game), and their rushing (140 yrds/game). Only one problem, Miami excels in defense in those catagories. Miami is only giving up 99 yrds rushing and 143 passing. The Miami's defense has recorded 3 sacks a piece for Trace Armstrong, Jason Taylor and Lorenzo Bromel, while getting 2 interceptions a piece for Terrell Buckley and Sam Madison and having a +6 turnover ratio. This is a high powered Miami defense that brought Pittsburgh to their knees in week 3, killing them 21-0. In week three, with both teams killing their opponents, the stats are king of lopsided. But, if you take those stats out, Miami still excells in all positions.

Miami has gained a Rushing threat (FINALLY), averaging 121 yds per game, with 3.8 yrds/rush. The Jets defense isn't that good when it comes to rushing. They give up 150 yrds/game and 5.8 yrds/rush. You can sort of tell Miami has been pushing for a rushing game, averaging 32 rushing plays and only 24 passing plays a game. Jimmy Johnson really wants a ground attack, but they fall back to throwing when it doesn't work.

I like Miami and the points [2 1/5]

#2 Oakland +2 1/5 Arizona : OVER 41
The wrong team is favored here. I predict the Raiders to crush Arizona. Oakland has a strong all around game, getting 109 yrds on the ground, and 197 in the air. The other side of the ball is where this play comes into effect. Arizona is getting only 96yrds/game on the ground, while their defense gives up 129 (4.0yrds/att). Oakland is comming off a squeaker, beating Dallas IN DALLAS 13-12. Arizona barely beat St. Louis 20-17. Arizona's offensive line is the main problem for them. They give up 3.3 sacks a game, and cause Jake Plummer to hurry his passes. Although Oakland averages only 1 interception, with good pass defense from the defensive line, the CBs could come up with 3 or 4.

Another factor could come late in the game. If Arizona goes down early in the game, don't expect them to come back. When a bad team looses early, the fans get restless and sometime turn against their team. This may or may not happen, but regardless...
I like this game because, again, the wrong team is favored.

#3 San Diego +1 Indi : OVER 36
This game should probably be listed as the number one play, but after what happend last week (The got blown out by the Giants after I listed them as the #1 play), #3 is good for them. This is a solid pick, because SD has a Great RUN Defense! They only give up 2.8 Yrds/Rush, 93 yrds rushing, 2 interceptions a game, 7.1 points/100 yrds and average 2.5 sacks a game.

The 7.1 points/100yrds means that a team only averages 7.1 points every 100 yrds the go. They give up about 276 yards per game, so thats about 18-19 points a game. But, Indi only gains 3points/100yrds. So thats a big plus for SD.

San Diego has had a tough time getting on track after loosing the KC chiefs 24-7 in week 3. But now, against a bad defense in Indi, [giving up 181 yrds rushing, worst in the league] and 13.3 yrds per pass they have a great chance. The 1 point that Indi is giving is because they're at home. That works against them, however, if SD goes up early in the game.
I like SD +1

NYGiants +3 1/2 Tampa Bay : OVER 35 1/2
Jaquez Green is returning for Tampa Bay, but is this enough? Both teams have a non existent running offense. The Giants get only 78 yds on offense, while TB only gets 98. Both also have good run defense... With the Giants givin up only 101 and the Bucs 99. I like the over mainly because both team's strength is their passing, and thats what gets teams OVER the total. The Giants give up almost 250 yards passing per game and 20 yards per pass(But average 1.5 interceptions, and the Bucs give up 174.

The Bucs got ran over last Monday Night, therefor had a short and a painful week. But, I don't see any signs of them comming back strong. They give up 3 sacks per game, and can't contain the other teams whole offense.

The Giants meanwhile had an easy time last week, beating a young offense in San Diego, 34-16. The Giants see this as a very important game to win, so they can stay in the hunt for top seed in the NFC East.
I like the Giants and the Points.

New England -7 New Orleans : OVER 36 1/2
New Orleans an impressive 3-0 start will come to a screeching hault this Sunday when they take on the New England Patriots in New Orleans. This Hurt offense (NO) gives up 4 sacks a game, while they go up against a solid New England defense. The New England defense is weak in the rushing area, giving up 105 yards and 4 yds/cary.

New Orlean's backup Quarterback, Danny Wurffel, has a small injury and is questionable for Sunday's game, so this may have an affect on most area's of the game. They only get 146 yards passing, giving up .7 interceptions, and averaging 11 yards per pass.

New England has a mediocre passing attack, with an avg. of 203 yrds/gm, and 13.5 yrds/pass and Drew Bledsoe hasn't thrown an interception yet, nor has the team fumbled at any time this year. They do however get about 1.7 interceptions a game.

I think New England will show up and blast New Orleans, on the ground and in the air. After comming of a bye, this team is prepared and ready to go. I like NE -7.

Detroit +2 Chicago : UNDER 38 1/2
I got lucky finding this game, where Detroit is an underdog by two points. Last week, the Lions killed TB with rookie qb Charlie Batch. I really like the Under here, because the Bears give up 154 yards rushing (while Detroit gets 152) and Detroit only gives up 76 (Bears get 110). The Lions should looke to keep the ball on the Ground with one of the best RBs in History, Barry Sanders. He showed he could run a little bit against a powerful Tampa Bay rushing attack last week, and there's no telling what he can do with a weak defense.

The Bears however have put together a nice passing game, averaging 227 yards per game (Detroit gives up 210). The only downside to Chicago that has an effect on this game is that they only get 5.8points/100yards, which leads to an average of only 19.5 points a game (Their defense gives up 24.8).

The wrong team is favored. Chicago gets points because they're at home and individual stats. I like the Lions.

Dallas -1 Washington : UNDER 39
Washington is a very shakey team right now. I don't think they'll come back to life against a very mad cowboy team. The Cowboys lost 13-12 last week against Oakland.. which shows two things: They can be beat with good defense and luck, or Jason Garret really isn't that good. I think its both, with Garret being the key. If he screws up again, It will be an uphill battle Sunday. But, if he can perform like he did Monday Night against the Giants, the Cowboys will storm past the 'Skins.

The Cowboys average 26 points on offense, with 125 rushing [4.0/rush, leads NFL with 33 rushing 1st downs] and 222 passing [12.5/pass]. They have a pretty balanced attack, with 32 rushing attempts per game, and 31 passing - both of which work [AVG 348 yrds/gm]. The Dallas offensive line, which was the biggest hole last year, has really worked together to allow only .8 sacks so far. On defense, they average 2 sacks per game, 5.7points/100yards, and a pretty good secondary. Overall, they are even in their turnover ratio.

Washington however, gives up 34.5 POINTS per game - 160 on the ground, and 191 in the air - with a minus 11 turnover ratio. Although Trent Green hasn't spelled success, he will start for Washington this week. The washington offensive line, which was pretty bad in the preseason, is still bad, giving up 4 and a half sacks per game. Since the 'Skins tend to go down early in the game, they have to rely on their passing [261 yards/gm] which leads to a 37 pass plays and 24 run plays and 1.8 interceptions.

If those big defensive linemen did what they were paid to do, Dallas wouldn't have to much of a chance. I like Dallas -1.

Atlanta -3 Carolina : OVER 38 1/2
Atlanta -3 is the way to go.
Carolina gives up 25 points, 136yards rushing and get about 4.5 sacks a game.

Atlanta is comming off a big loss to San Francisco and is looking for revenge, especially against someone in their division. Home Field advatage may play a part in this game, because division games tend to be a plus for the home team.

The Falcons only give up 93 (Panthers only get 84 yards per game) rushing yards per game, even after playing SF. They have a pretty strong set of defensive linemen, but the secondary is thin (giving up 287 yards per game).

I like Atlanta - only giving 3 points.

Week 6

Comming up!

Week 7

#1 Dallas -3 1/2 Chicago
This is a major fault in the line. Although the game is played at Chicago, Dallas has the offensive and defensive power to blow this team out by 30. Chicago's strenth is it's passing offense. However, their defense gives up as much yards passing as its offense gets. There is still a major schuffling going on with Edgar Bennett and Curtis Enis at RB, and either player could be put in at any time. Bennett will start. Dallas has been cruising well, even though Aikman is still on the bench. I think this is for the best right now, because Garrett is in the swing of things, and has been playing well. Emmitt Smith is playing banged up a little, but If anything happens, Chris Warren will step up, and he is also a big time RB. NOTE: The bears have given up 14 fumbles this year, including 8 in the last 2 games.
I like Dallas -3.5

Jacksonville -3 Buffalo
Buffalo has been playing well, but aren't a match for Jacksonville. Jax comes in 5-0, and has the offensive power to trample Buffalo. The Bills have a tendancy to give up big plays to RBs, but JAX RB Fred Taylor is banged up. Flutie will start in the place of injured QB Rob Johnson and has a big hill to climb (the Jax defensive line) this Sunday. The Jaguars are ranked 3rd rushing against a Buffalo 16th rush defense. If (and when) the Jaguars take control of the line of scrimage, they will also control the rest of the game. The Buffalo secondary is really flimsy, and will have the challenge of guarding Jax WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.
I think this is also a deceicing line. I like Jax -3

#3 Tennessee -3.5 Cicinnati
Tennessee is starting to come together. Their offense has many weapons which in the past two weeks have proven deadly. McNair is starting to gain much more control over his team, but George needs to step up. The Oilers will be able to establish their passing against an non-existent Cincinnati Secondary(ranked 19th, but gives up huge plays late in the game) and maybe George will get things going against a terrible Cincy rush defense (ranked 29th). The Bengals really got lucky last week, a lot to do with Bettis leaving because of injury, but nontheless, they're on the road this week. The Bengals have a few weapons, but all are countered by Tennessee's defense. There is a huge possibility Cincy is suffering a Pittsburgh Hangover, after their impressive but lucky winning tuchdowns. Tennessee will focus their passing on their TEs and short outs to the WRs. Both teams will try and control the clock, but Tennessee has a major advantage because their defense is superior to Cincy's offense.
I like Tenn -3.5

New Englad Patriots -6.5 NY Jets
The Jets sputtered after loosing 30-10 last week against the St. Louis Rams. The Jets played terrible with QB Glenn Foley, who has been nothing but an overrated QB that has produced nothing for his team in the WIN column. Testaverde will take his place, but I don't think he is a match for the NE secondary. New England's all around tough offense squashed the Chiefs last week, 40-10! This offense certainly has enough talent and firepower to pu the Jets away fast. This is a division game, and is on MNF. Both tend to favor the Home Team. This will be a tough place for Curtis Martin to get his running going, because 1st, the whole place hates him now, and second.. the NE defense is ranked 3rd in rushing. On the other end, NE RB Robert Edwards has been playing very well, and goes up against a 22nd ranked NY rush defense.
I like NE giving ONLY 6.5 points

Miami/ST.Louis UNDER 40.5
Miami's offense is really struggling. Their defense is what keeps them in the game. St. Louis has a decent offense, but no match for the Dolphins defense. Last week, the Rams scored 30 points.. but against a terrible Jets defense. If someone scores it will be Miami.


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