It is rare for Sudan Infonet to distribute information on the
neighboring countries in the Horn of Africa.  However, the
unfolding events in Ethiopia and Eritrea have a direct impact on
events in Sudan.  The IRIN (Integrated Regional Information
Network) has an excellent reputation for its ability to bring together
information in an objective and helpful manner.  Therefore, we in SI
pass this on to you as an attempt to help the public understand the
regional context of Sudan and the conflicts that are inter-related.
Regards,
SI Administrator

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
U N I T E D   N A T I O N S
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Integrated Regional Information Network
for Central and Eastern Africa

Tel: +254 2 622147
Fax: +254 2 622129
e-mail: irin@ocha.unon.org

[This report is issued as a background document for the benefit of
the humanitarian community only. It draws on a wide range of
publicly-available sources and interviews conducted by IRIN in
Ethiopia and Eritrea, but cannot be said to represent the views of
the United Nations. It should not be directly quoted by media.]
 
ERITREA-ETHIOPIA: IRIN Special Background Report October
26 1998

1. INTRODUCTION

"Senseless". "Appalling". "Completely unexpected". These are a
few of the reactions from senior figures interviewed by IRIN in
Ethiopia and Eritrea as their border war reaches a six-month
stalemate. If they are surprised, their countries' friends, neighbours
and investors are stunned.  Profiled as dedicated strategists of
African self-reliance, the two leaders, Eritrean President Isaias
Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi are now
locked in a dangerous military showdown, anaylsts and diplomats
say. 

Last ditch diplomatic efforts are underway to avert a renewed
outbreak of hostilities which flared up last May. A key OAU
meeting in Burkina Faso has been shifted back several times to 7
November at the earliest, diplomatic sources say. A news blackout
shrouded an early October mission to both capitals by US envoy,
former US national security official Anthony Lake. 

This paper from the IRIN network attempts to place the current
situation in context, as a background report. As tensions remain
high, and both sides reportedly are mobilising for war, it tries to
draw attention to the potential impacts of a failure to reach a
peaceful conclusion to the crisis.

2. BACKGROUND

The armies of Ethiopia and Eritrea clashed on their common border
in May and June this year. The two countries had close ties, due to
their historical links - Eritrea became officially independent from
Ethiopia in 1993 - and the personal relationship between their two
leaders.  Isaias and Meles were fellow rebel leaders, heading two
liberation fronts which in latter years cooperated to overthrow the
military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Despite periods of
ideological and tactical disagreement, Isaias' Eritrean People's
Liberation Front (EPLF) and Meles' Tigray People's Liberation
Front (TPLF), both formed in the mid-seventies, were the heart of
the forces that defeated sub-Saharan Africa's then largest army in
1991. 

The TPLF is the core of the multi-ethnic Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) which now dominates
the Ethiopian political scene. After Eritrean independence,
overwhelmingly approved by a referendum in 1993, peacetime
relations seemed set to remain firm.

Relations, however, noticeably deteriorated last year, when Eritrea
launched its own currency and Ethiopia responded by insisting that
cross-border trade be conducted in hard currency. Officials now
claim that there had been other minor economic and political
problems between the two sides, while Eritrea has recently revealed
details of a hushed-up 1997 border clash at Bada in July 1997.
Other causes of friction were new maps of Ethiopia's northern
Tigray region, and an allegedly enlarged Ethiopian national map on
the re-issued Ethiopian currency, the birr. Ethiopia's spokesperson,
Selome Tadesse, however, dismissed earlier differences between the
two as minor, saying "we had bigger issues to focus on."

Conflict broke out in May this year after disagreements over several
points on the common border worsened, despite the creation of a
joint border commission. Despite intensive peace efforts led by US
and Rwandan facilitators, events escalated to a peak in early June,
at which point land forces clashed heavily on three fronts (Badme,
Zal Anbessa and Bure) and both sides exchanged air strikes. 

Hundreds of soldiers were killed, up to 300,000 civilians have been
displaced, schoolchildren were killed in an Eritrean air raid on
Ethiopia's northern Tigray provincal capital of Mekelle and
economic activity on both sides of the border has been disrupted. In
the lull that has followed the June clashes, both sides have abided
by a US-brokered moritorium on air strikes. Military clashes on the
border have been kept to occasional artillery exchanges. Diplomatic
efforts to broker an agreement are in a stalemate. The US-Rwanda
plan originally asked the Eritrean forces to withdraw pending a final
settlement, but Eritrea refused, saying it would only withdraw if the
territory were demilitarised and controlled by a third force. 

The mood in both countries is one of apprehension mixed with
considerable anger and bitterness. The conflict-related migration of
tens of thousands of civilians from each side has raised allegations
of widespread human rights abuse and "ethnic cleansing". Military
mobilisation has been accompanied by antagonistic propaganda
from both sides. As the conflict drags on towards a sixth month, the
prospects for peace are dim.  Diplomatic rhetoric about an "African
renaissance", led by younger leaders such as Meles and Isaias, is
fatally undermined by the conflicts in the Horn and the Democratic
Republic of Congo. 
 
3. CURRENT SITUATION

3.1 Humanitarian situation

Several hundred thousand people may already be displaced along
both sides of the border, and official statistics say over 50,000 have
migrated between the countries. Hundreds of thousands are
considered affected - caring for or accomodating relatives displaced
by war or conflict-related migration. The government institutions
on each side are seeking a total of well over US $30 million to cope
with the humanitarian impact.  Humanitarian needs on each side
have been met by a combination of local community resources,
national, church, NGO and government institutions, and the efforts
of international NGOs, UN agencies and donors. 

Trade between the two countries has come to a halt. Ethiopia has
yet to suffer shortages or significant price rises as a result of using
ports other than Assab for its supplies, but a transport industry
source says that Djibouti is likely to become "congested" with
Ethiopian imports in coming months. The governor of the Eritrean
port of Assab, cut off from the Ethiopian hinterland, says there is a
"general shortage of supplies in the market", despite supplies
arriving by sea.

3.2 Eritrea

The Eritrean Relief and Refugee Commission (ERREC) has
appealed for US $20 million for war-affected Eritreans - about half
of which is a six-month food ration for affected people. While
displaced and directly affected people are numbered at 100,000, a
further 160,000 are classified by ERREC as having "fragile
livelihoods worsened by the general state of war". A 4 September
ERREC health and water supply appeal for both migrants and
war-affected Eritreans is costed at an additional $5.6 million. The
UN's September appeal for Eritrea amounted to $8.9 million. The
UN's assessment of needs was the result of field visits by two teams
of aid officials, and seeks food rations for about 100,000 affected
people.

An ERREC official told IRIN the priority at present was to secure
cash to supply migrant families with funds and food to repay
borrowings from the Eritrean Grain Board. The three biggest
international donors to the ERREC appeal so far are the US, the
EU and Italy. ERREC is not only seeking to cope with the needs of
the temporarily affected, but also is allocating land to migrants who
are not returning to Ethiopia. Food distributions within Eritrea have
included Ethiopian beneficiaries. A food distribution under the
auspices of ERREC in Assab helped feed 10,000 Ethiopians and
4,500 Eritreans, local officials told IRIN.

3.3 Ethiopia

The Ethiopian Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission
(DPPC)  reports that a total of 188,690 people are displaced due to
the war in northern and eastern Ethiopia. Its 25 September appeal
indicates needs for the next six months - until February 1999, which
include 28,242 mt of food aid. Non-food needs are costed at 80
million Birr, about US $11.1 million.  Following a week-long
inter-agency assessment of needs, the UN agencies in Ethiopia
devised a complementary response to part of the overall need in
both food and non-food sectors. UN agencies are seeking US $4.1
million for emergency aid, complementary to the DPPC appeal. In
Ethiopia, UN commitments already total $3.1 million. 

Contributions from the public at home and abroad have been
important for both countries, but observers say it is not always clear
whether public donations are earmarked for humanitarian purposes
or the more general war effort. The Ethiopian DPPC said that 71
million birr's worth of cash and goods had so far been donated -
about US $10 million - but told donors that the breakdown between
military and humanitarian fundraising could not immediately be
provided.

3.4 Other humanitarian issues

About 64,000 mt of food aid cargo was in the Eritrean port of
Assab at the start of the conflict in May, UN and diplomatic sources
say. "It is not clear" where that food aid is now, a diplomat told
IRIN. All of the food was destined for Ethiopia, some four million
of whose citizens this year were due to receive some form of food
assistance. WFP alone has 11,000 mt to account for - valued at US
$2.2 million. US officials confirm 43,000 mt of their shipment was
also in the port. So far, the Eritrean government has not clarified
their policy towards the cargo. In the high temperatures of Assab,
WFP is concerned the food "can't last much longer". 

Ethiopia has insisted, through the International Maritime
Organisation and the regional trade grouping COMESA, that
Eritrea release all "import-export" goods that were in the ports. 

3.5 Conflict-related migration

The conflict-related migration of Ethiopians and Eritreans arriving
back in their home countries has become the most emotive issue of
the war. When referring to a variety of population movements
ranging from voluntary departures to forcible expulsions, IRIN may
use in this and other reports the general term "conflict-related
migration". 

Both countries host large minorities of the other's citizens. About
130,000 Eritrean adults were registered in Ethiopia at the time of
the independence referendum in 1993, but estimates of the total
Eritrean population in Ethiopia range from 250,000 up to 500,000.
The number of Ethiopians in Eritrea is estimated at around
100,000.

While the exact figures and the degree of coercion are disputed on
both sides, it is clear that large numbers of people have been
uprooted, repatriated, and are now living in temporary shelter or
with relatives, disorientated and angry. The ICRC has been
involved in "ensuring safe passage" of the migrants across the front
lines on at least 18 occasions, but a carefully worded statement,
issued last week, alluded to "recurrent humanitarian problems". 

The Eritrean foreign ministry has announced that 30,000 Eritreans
have come back from Ethiopia as of 21 October while Ethiopia says
27,000 of its citizens have returned as of 25 September, AP reports. 

Human rights groups have criticised both governments for their
treatment
of civilians, but Ethiopia has come in for harsher criticism. Human
Rights Watch (HRW) urged both governments to stop the
"harassment and targeting"  of civilians in a 17 June statement.
HRW noted that the Ethiopian government had made an official
demand on 14 June for Eritrean members of political and
community organisations to leave. No such formal demand has been
made by the Eritrean authorities on Ethiopians. A statement from
the Eritrean ministry of foreign affairs on 25 September says,
"Eritrea has no policy of expulsion of Ethiopian nationals". Ethiopia
retorts that Eritrea makes life "intolerable for them [Ethiopians]
while refusing them permission to leave". Both sides regard the
treatment of migrants to be violations of human and economic
rights, complaining of arrests, beatings and seizure of money and
assets.

The ICRC also reports that it is able to visit civilian detainees in
both countries, but regularly has access to prisoners of war only in
Ethiopia.  Reuniting unaccompanied minors with their families is
part of the ICRC's work, while 700 Red Cross messages have been
passed in and between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights is proposing a
human rights monitoring mission in both countries, perhaps in
conjunction with the OAU, a UNHCHR official in Geneva told
IRIN.


4. POLITICAL/MILITARY

4.1 Mobilisation and arms expenditure

Officials from both countries accept estimates that a minimum of
200,000 armed soldiers have been mobilised altogether. A very
significant military buildup has been continuing for months. Neither
side denies that a process of rearmament has begun, with imports of
weapons costing tens of millions of dollars, according to
investigations by news organisations and arms trade lobby groups.
Aid officials say it is inevitable that funds will be diverted from
peacetime development efforts.

The threat of air attacks has raised public fears that the war will
reach Asmara and Addis Ababa. The most notorious incident
involving civilians in the war so far was an Eritrean bombing of a
school in Mekelle. Eritrean spokesman Yemane Ghebre Meskel told
IRIN "it was a mistake ... we regret it."

Particularly controversial has been the agreement, reported by the
'Jerusalem Post', of the Israeli government to allow Elbit Systems to
supply upgraded MiG-21 fighter jets to the Ethiopian air force
within one year. A 1995 report from 'Military and Arms Transfer
News' estimated the cost of simliar upgrades on Romanian MiG 21
aircraft - which Elbit is exchanging for Ethiopian aircraft - at about
$300 million for 100 aircraft. 

Eritrea has been importing weapons from eastern Europe, and a
Sudanese opposition source told IRIN that Eritrea, in any case, had
inherited "mountains and mountains" of arms from the defeated
former Ethiopian forces. "If you need them [arms], you buy them,
that's obvious" said a senior Eritrean official. The Eritrean air force
has six Aermacchi MB-339CD training jets purchased for $45
million in 1996. The 'Indian Ocean Newsletter' reporting the deal in
1996, said the MB-339CD "can easily be transformed into [an]
attack aircraft".

4.2 Dangers of propaganda

Another fear of diplomats and observers is related to the level of
propaganda on both sides. Neither side has yet dropped to the level
of Rwanda-style "hate media", but in news broadcasts, commentary
and state-sanctioned illustrations, both sides "demonise" the other.
Three journalists in Ethiopia were arrested in July after publishing
an article in their paper 'Nishan' warning against encouraging ethnic
animosity, reports a press freedom watchdog, IFEX.  Media
sources said the three were recently released on bail. An Ethiopian,
married to an Eritrean, said he and others in similar circumstances
particularly feared the power of propaganda to "poison the mind". 

5. DIPLOMATIC SITUATION

5.1 Shifting regional alliances

"Ethiopia doesn't want surprises on its borders", a diplomat told
IRIN in Addis Ababa. A number of signs have emerged that
Ethiopia is strengthening relations with those it may need during a
war or those it needs to keep at bay. Political support and alleged
military help has gone to Somaliland, relations with Khartoum are
improving, and in Somalia, Ethiopia's involvement took a new turn
when Hussein Aydeed visited Addis in August.

Keeping potential supporters of the armed Islamic Al-Itahad
movement, known to have harassed Ethiopia from Somalia, is said
by observers to be the motive of the rapprochment with Aydeed,
who was formerly not included in Ethiopian-sponsored
negotiations. Ethiopia has also helped Djibouti with finance to
improve its port operations.

Eritrea too, has been glad to reach agreement with Yemen over the
disputed Red Sea Hanish islands - although its claims were largely
denied. Eritrea has announced new trade deals with Libya, which
had in the 1980s been  accused of supporting anti-EPLF Eritrean
groups. An African diplomat in Asmara said the "permutations are
changing". The re-alignments resulting from the latest rebellion and
intervention in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would also
"change the configuration", the diplomat said.

5.2 My enemy's enemy is my friend?

If conflict or even the current low-level dispute continues, there is
an increased likelihood of each side helping its neighbour's rebels as
part of attempts to undermine and destabilise the enemy. This has in
the past, often involved the use of neighbouring states as rear bases
for the rebels. 

Ethiopia's stand-off with Eritrea has warmed relations between the
ruling EPRDF and some "unity"-oriented opposition groups, but
others may take advantage of the current conflict to seek support
from Eritrea or elsewhere, analysts say. Ethiopia-Sudan relations
are coloured by the ability of both sides to foster rebellion, analysts
say.

A Horn of Africa analyst told IRIN that a consolidation within the
splintered Eritrean armed opposition, might also be encouraged by
Addis Ababa. An exiled Ethiopian opposition figure has told IRIN
that Ethiopian officials visited an Eritrean rebel faction in Germany
earlier this year. Officially, Ethiopia says it has refused to allow
Eritrean opposition groups to open offices in Addis Ababa, while
Eritrea will admit only that the Eritrean rebel group known as Jihad
makes "occasional incursions" into western Eritrea from time to
time.

Ethiopia says Eritrea is supporting rebel movements, one being the
Oromo Liberation Front - a veteran of opposition to Addis Ababa
since 1974. The OLF, briefly in a transitional government with the
EPRDF in 1991-1992, is a "mercenary group serving the EPLF",
according to Ethiopian president Nagasso Gidada speaking on
VOA radio in July.  In interviews with IRIN, spokespersons from
both sides will admit the possibility of giving help and
encouragement to each other's rebels only if the situation worsens.
The prospect of dormant internal disputes breaking into armed
conflict could greatly complicate the political, military and
humanitarian situation, aid workers say. 

5.3 Prospects for negotiated settlement

Diplomatic efforts have been deadlocked for months, as the original
4 June US-Rwanda four-point peace plan remains on the table (full
text available from IRIN on request). Since then the OAU Council
of Ministers (on 5 June)  and OAU Assembly of the Heads of State
and Government (on 10 June 10) have to varying degrees backed
the plan. UN Security Council resolution 1177 (1998) stops short
of endorsing the US-Rwanda plan. The Security Council resolution
"notes" the OAU Council of Ministers resolution and "expresses its
strong support" for the more cautious OAU Heads of State
resolution. A team of OAU-mandated ambassadors after a
fact-finding mission agreed that some areas under dispute had been
under Ethiopian administration before 6 May. 

However, an Eritrean government official told IRIN that the full
OAU report was over 80 pages long, and had not been released.
The upcoming OAU meeting in Burkina Faso is to consider the
whole report. Eritrea, according to spokesman Yemane Ghebre
Meskel, does not deny that Eritrean forces presently occupy
locations previously controlled by Ethiopia, but says the flaws of
the US-Rwanda 4 June peace plan, which most observers say was
made public prematurely, were many - it was "incomplete", he said. 

The most serious sticking point for both sides has been the
"re-deployment"  - read withdrawal - of troops from contested
areas. Ethiopia demands the unconditional withdrawal of Eritrean
troops and the re-establishment of the status quo ante, while Eritrea
refuses, unless the contested areas are then patrolled by a neutral
force, pending arbitration. Other parts of the US-Rwanda plan,
such as the demarcation of the border and arbitration mechanisms
are held up by the issue of re-deployment. 

About five areas along the common border are disputed. A key
difference in public statements so far has been Eritrea's emphasis on
colonial boundaries, and Ethiopia's repeated mention of effective
administration and historical precedent. A telltale section of the
disputed border is the section marked (on maps issued by both
sides) as a straight line between the Tekezze and Mareb-Gash
rivers. Leaders on both sides have said they have no broader
territorial ambitions, but analysts and media reports speculate that
in the event of an all-out conflict, Ethiopia would covet Assab,
Eritrea's southern Red Sea port that had served landlocked Ethiopia
with most of its imports. Humera, on Ethiopia's border with Sudan
and Eritrea, is mentioned as a possible strategic target for Eritrea. 

Neither side has substantively modified its negotiating position
since June, while no new diplomatic initiative has been launched
publicly. Ethiopia, satisfied with the US-Rwanda plan, resists the
idea of new "tracks", while an Eritrean diplomat, contacted by
IRIN, suggests that the latest US mission by Anthony Lake might
yet bear fruit and mentions other low-key efforts by African and
European to break the deadlock.  There have been contacts
between the two Orthodox church leaders of each country, and
diplomatic sources say a meeting of Christian and Muslim religious
leaders is being planned in Norway.

6. CONCLUSION

A senior UN official told IRIN that a war between the former close
allies, once started, would be hard to stop, saying "it's not a fire you
can light and put out quickly." Humanitarian contingency planning
is going on in both countries. A UN official said "it could go either
way.  But whether or not there's further fighting, there will have to
be serious thinking about the new relationship between the
countries." 

Humanitarian aid, military expenditure and disrupted economic
activity have already cost some US $100 million, but the historical
and cultural links between the countries is a source of hope for
some: "You can't permanently create a wall between these people",
says Yemane Ghebre Meskel. "Both leaders are looking for a way
out", a senior African commentator said.

A long-term analyst of the Horn of Africa told IRIN that in
Ethiopia there was "very considerable pressure to fight" from a
range of political directions. Emergent Eritrea too, can ill afford to
lose face. 

Even if peace is established, it will take time to undo the damage to
civilian livelihoods, patch up damaged infrastructure and restore
trade - politics and bruised pride permitting. Longer-term damage
will be in the fields of foreign investment and tourism - where
confidence has been badly rattled.  However, the conviction on
both sides is that they regard war - if it comes - to be just.
Ethiopia's Selome Tadesse said it would be "as acceptable as war
gets". UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and UN officials in the
Horn point out that the war could be the first interstate conflict in a
decade, and that such an event has not taken place in Africa since
the Ethiopia-Somalia war of 1977-78. 

[ENDS]
  
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10/26/98   11:55 AM