Sunday, May 21, 2000, New Delhi

LTTE on a major psychological offensive
Colombo, May 20
(P K Balachanddran)

ALONGSIDE POWERFUL thrusts against Sri Lankan army positions east of Jaffna town, and the shelling of Palaly and Kankesanthurai, the LTTE is on a major psychological offensive against the minds of the 27,000 government troops defending Jaffna.

An offer of ceasefire and safe passage was followed by a sugar coated ultimatum which tantalisingly offered the carrots of life and safe passage out of the war zone even as it brandished the stick of annihilation in case the ultimatum was disregarded.

But observers say that the LTTE's "psy ops" is unlikely to yield the desired results because the security forces seem to have recovered their elan given the military support coming in from Israel, and the subtle moral support extended by India.

Military experts say that the psy ops have been necessitated by the fact that the LTTE does not have sufficient men and material to overwhelm the security forces in a classic clash of arms. The LTTE desperately needs to bring about a quick capitulation to reap the benefits of its doing so far, and avoid a costly retreat which a time lag might bring about. Capitulation can be brought about only if the military offensive is backed up by a war of nerves, to break the defenders' will power and elan. To play on the supposedly low morale of the defenders, the LTTE has so far sent two messages to them.

The first message offered a "temporary" ceasefire, monitored by a third party, to enable the army to quit Jaffna in honour. Addressing the decision making elite in Colombo, the message said that if the ceasefire and the evacuation took place, the LTTE would be ready to begin talks to end the ethnic conflict with third party mediation. But the Sri Lankan government spurned this offer.

The Tigers then turned their 122 mm guns on the strategic air port of Palaly and the sea port of Kankesanthurai north of Jaffna to sever communications, and simultaneously, they launched another psychological offensive. In an ultimatum, they told the government troops that their "vital links" had been cut and that their lives were in "grave danger".

Though Sri Lanka has set its face against surrender and evacuation because of the blow these will give to overall morale, unconfirmed media reports of India's having ships and aircraft ready for evacuation, keep fuelling speculation about evacuation. The UNP, Sri Lanka's main opposition party, also seems to be party to the bid to create a defeatist mentality by cynically or unwittingly becoming a conduit for LTTE-fed news.