London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Black Sea coasts zone of Ukraine.

"Black Sea Environmental Priorities Study. Ukraine".

ISBN 92-1-126094-9.United National Publications Sales

No. E.98. III.B.16 Black Sea Studies.

United Nations Publications, New York, 1998.

Population and Economy. Demographic and Employment Trends.

Since 1991, there has been a down hard population trend in Ukraine.

The rate of natural population growth is negative and since 1994.

Net migration has also turned negative.

Levels of unemployment are increasing.

Population of the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions

Regions

(administrative territorial units)

Population (millions of persons)

1970

1979

1989

1995

Ukraine

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Mikolayiv

Odessa

Kherson

ARC

CR, total

47.1

4.9

1.8

1.2

2.4

1.0

1.8

13.0

49.8

5.2

2.0

1.2

2.5

1.2

2.2

14.2

51.7

5.3

2.1

1.3

2.6

1.2

2.5

15.1

51.7

5.3

2.1

1.4

2.6

1.3

2.6

15.2

Source: Economy of Ukraine. 1994-1995

Mortality rates in Ukraine increased from 12,1 per thousand to 14,7.

Birth rates fell from 12,7 per thousand to 10,0.

Population density in the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions

Regions

Population density (person/km²)

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Mikolayiv

Odessa

Kherson

ARC

Ukraine

198.8

77.0

55.0

78.3

44.7

85.4

85.7

Source: Economy of Ukraine.

Thus, the general demographic situation in Ukraine including its coastal regions is not favourable and is worsening. Morbidity and mortality rates, especially infant's mortality is high. This situation has been brought on by factors such as the unfavourable demographic structure in herited from the former Soviet Union, the economic crisis, the unsatisfactory socio-economic conditions in many regions of Ukraine, and the low level of social development.

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Black Sea coasts zone of Ukraine.

"Black Sea Environmental Priorities Study. Ukraine".

ISBN 92-1-126094-9.United National Publications Sales

No. E.98. III.B.16 Black Sea Studies.

United Nations Publications, New York, 1998.

Economic Overview.

The Ukrainian economy is facing a serious and growing crisis.

Macroeconomic indices for 1990-1995 illustrate the economic crisis in Ukraine, one without parallel among developed countries since World War II except for the NIS.

GDP has fallen by 55%, national income by 59%.

Consumption has been reduced by 32%.

Major economic indices for Ukraine, 1990-1995

Indices

Years / % of previous year

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

GDP*

GDP**

National Income**

Industrial Output**

-4.0

-2.4

-0.1

-8.7

-13.5

-13.4

-4.8

-9.9

-16.8

-17.5

-6.4

-17.1

-14.2

-14.9

-7.6

-23.0

-24.5

-27.7

-10.3

-11.8

-11.5

* Official statistics and estimations of national economists.

** Estimations of the World Bank

Source: Real Economy and Its Sectors. 1996.

Major trends in the industrial sector.

From 1991-1995, industrial output of the coastal regions declined dramatically.

Indices of industrial output in coastal regions (1975=100)

Regions

Total industrial output

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Ukraine

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Mikolayiv

Odessa

Kherson

ARC

144

132

144

145

143

147

167

153

167

168

166

170

171

158

143

167

164

171

158

148

132

160

150

164

157

147

135

120

147

137

150

144

134

Source: Economy of Ukraine, 1994-1995.

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Black Sea coasts zone of Ukraine.

"Black Sea Environmental Priorities Study. Ukraine".

ISBN 92-1-126094-9.United National Publications Sales

No. E.98. III.B.16 Black Sea Studies.

United Nations Publications, New York, 1998.

Pollution. Municipal Sewage.

Municipal Sources of Liquid and Solid Waste of Selected Black Sea Regions

Liquid Waste

Source

Volume (m³/y)

BOD₅ Load (t/y)

TSS Load (t/y)

Total N Load (t/y)

Total P Load (t/y)

Oil Load (t/y)

Putresible Load (t/y)

Infection Load (t/y)

Total Mikolayiv region

Total Odessa region

Total ARC

TOTALS

36,401

88,343

139,197

263,941

2,523

10,570

5,547

18,641

4,518

20,023

9,301

33,843

892

3,737

4,211

8,840

416

1,021

1,140

2,577

4,831

5,167

14,139

24,138

199,763

445,438

619,050

1,264,252

2,334

4,506

2,395

9,235

Source: Assessment of Land-based Sources of water and Land Pollution in the Ukrainian Black Sea Coast. 1996.

Industrial Effluents. Aquatic Pollution

Concentration of 19 heavy metals frequently exceeds the MACs in all Black Sea coast areas. The most serious offenders are copper, zinc, cadmium, cobalt, nickel and chromium. The load from the industrial sources is the following.

Industrial Sources of Liquid Waste for Selected Black Sea Regions

Liquid Waste

Source

Volume (m³/y)

BOD₅ Load (t/y)

TSS Load (t/y)

Total N Load (t/y)

Total P Load (t/y)

Oil Load (t/y)

Total Mikolayiv region

Total Odessa region

Total ARC

TOTALS

1,343

101,833

15,157

118,333

669

29,858

6,003

36,531

2,637

13,048

54,743

70,428

26,113

4,813

30,954

1,683

1,699

210

62,700

62,918

Source: Assessment of Land-based Sources of water and Land Pollution in the Ukrainian Black Sea Coast. 1996.

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Black Sea coasts zone of Ukraine.

"Black Sea Environmental Priorities Study. Ukraine".

ISBN 92-1-126094-9.United National Publications Sales

No. E.98. III.B.16 Black Sea Studies.

United Nations Publications, New York, 1998.

Atmospheric emissions.

· The dynamics of air pollutant emissions by industrial in the coastal zones are similar to pollutant dynamics nationally.

· Air pollution there mainly comes from the metallurgical, energy, coal mining and chemical industries.

· Due to the sharp decline in industrial output throughout Ukraine and in these industries in particular, total emissions have decreased dramatically.

Pollutant emission loads in Black Sea and Azov Sea regions

Regions

Pollutant emission loads

1985

1990

1991

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

ARC

Mikolayiv

Odessa

Kherson

Total Ukraine

142,8

39,2

37,5

15,6

15,8

12,2

31,2

116,6

32,6

25,5

12,2

12,8

9,3

25,8

108,5

27,2

22,3

11,1

11,8

9,6

23,7

Source: National Report, 1992

Integrated Air Pollution Index for Selected cities in the Black Sea and Azov Sea Regions

Region		City	Major air polluting indastries	Integrated Air Pollution Index (IAPI)
Region		City	Major air polluting indastries	1991	1992	1993	1994
Donetsk	Donetsk Mariupol		Coal, energy, oil refinery, engeneering . Metallurgy, electronics, energy	163.2 133.7	186.2 108.0	87.7 NA	36.0 10.2
Zaporizhia	Zaporizhia		Metallurgy, energy, engineering, transport	156,3	63.7	19.9	15.4
Mikolayiv	Mikolayiv		Shipbuilding, electronics, energy	52.3	35.0	7.6	8.8
Kherson	Kherson		Energy, machine-building, oil refinery, construction	52.3	35.0	7.6	8.8
Odessa	Odessa Izmail		Oil refinery, machine-building, energy, constr. Marine transport, food	52.6 3.5	81.7 3.4	26.1 NA	26.6 5.5
ARC	Simferopol Yalta Kerch		Chemicals, energy, transp. Food, transport Metallurgy, construction	17.8 9.3 7.3	18.2 4.1 18.7	3.5 10.1 7.9	4.5 3.0 10.3

Source: Yearbook 1986,88,93.95, the State Committee of Hydrometeorology

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Black Sea coasts zone of Ukraine.

"Black Sea Environmental Priorities Study. Ukraine".

ISBN 92-1-126094-9.United National Publications Sales

No. E.98. III.B.16 Black Sea Studies.

United Nations Publications, New York, 1998.

Institutional and Legislative Changes.

Following the adoption of the new Constitution of Ukraine on 28 July 1996, considerable changes in the governmental institutional structure, including environmental bodies, are being planned.

The following will be among the key responsibilities of the Ministry for Environmental Protection and Nuclear Safety:

· Development of regional environmental monitoring systems and regional environmental information systems;

· Elaboration of compulsory rules, techniques, regulations directives and guidelines on environmental protection;

· Development, implementation and monitoring of specific environmental programs;

· Enhancement of environmental management capacity of State and local levels;

· Developing systems for environmental audits and environmental licensing;

· Creation of environmental funds in the State budget

· Organising competitive bidding on governmental contracts for environmental investments;

· Allocating permits for special use of natural resources, solid waste, disposal and discharges and emissions of pollutants, and;

· Creation of a system of environmental insurance.

Criteria for Setting Priorities.

Experience and analysis of the specific problems of the Ukrainian Black Sea coastal zone, the following criteria were chosen in rough order of priority:

1. Losses from environmental damage to human health or health costa. Estimated by child mortality, child pathology, morbidity, effect on life expectancy, ratio of mortality and birth rates in comparison to ecologically pristine areas;

2. Economic and ecological losses due to declining bio- productivity and bio-diversity of terrestrial and marine ecosystems caused by environmental pollution;

3. "hot spots" and danger of irreversible damage to the natural environmental;

4. low-cost environmental protection measures and "win-win" investments;

5. ecological benefits/cost ratio or net social benefits maximisation.

Those measures that result in equivalent degrees of environmental protection utilising fewer funds and in a shorter time period are preferable.

Also, the renovation and construction of water treatment facilities at "hot spots" are given high priority.

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

of Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

Short demographical report.

By the end of 1999 the population of the coastal zone was as follows;

Kherson area - 12371000

Mykolayiv area - 13099000

Odessa area - 25286000

Odessa city - over 1 mln.

For the 11 months of 1999 in Odessa area there were registered;

18300 -newborns.

32500 - deaths (the natural decrease of population - 14200 people.

The same period of 1999 - 13000).

The number of newborns for 100 dead - 56,2. (60 - for the same period of 1998).

The main causes of death in 1999 were;

· Heart and vassal diseases (60%);

· Oncology (14,7%);

· Accidents, murders, suicides and other external factors;

· 0,8% of all total deaths were in children up to 12 months old.

In 1999 there were 16.2 thousand of marriages and

8,2 thousand of divorces. (In 1998 -15.2 and 8,1 accordingly).

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

of Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

The Employment Sphere

The Dynamics of Labor Costs

By the 1998 the share of highly-paid positions had decreased 3 times,

of middle- paid positions - 4 times. At the same a share

of a low-paid positions had increased 7,5 times.

Simultaneously, we observe the decrease of the real wages.

The dynamics of the work positions with high, middle and low wages in %.

Work positions

High     (600 ukr. hrvn. and higher)

Middle (250-600)

Low      (250 and more low)

years

The disqualification of considerable population groups, the loss of social markers and moral principles are obvious.

The number of unemployed - 1,7 mln. for coastal area (24 per 1 position).

This year there will be 600 thousand people laid out in the sphere of industry.

All together there will be 3-7 mln. people looking for a job in the region.

In the group of young people (15-24 years old). the unemployment is 3 times higher than in the other age groups.

Dynamics of unemployment. Age structure.

All ages (15-70)

Youth (15-24)

Old (25-70)

years

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

of Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

The Dynamics of Population Incomes.

According to the border of the lowest life support level (90,6 Ukr. hrivnas, starting July, 2000 - 106 Ukr. hrivnas) -approximately 40% of the population is below this level.

mln. of citizens

The total monthly average income of the population

krb.

1991

krb.

87,5

112,5

137,5

162,5

182,5

225,0

275,0

325,0

375,0

475,0

575,0

mln. of citizens

0,05

0,25

0,85

1,75

2,75

8,2

9,4

8,25

6,4

4,6

3,5

1995

krb.

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

500

mln. of citizens

0,5

4,5

8,5

10,5

8,7

5,6

4,0

2,6

1,8

1,1

0,8

0,5

1998

krb.

38,5

63,5

89,0

114,5

140,0

165,5

190,5

216,0

241,5

254

mln. of citizens

0,55

7,3

14,1

11,9

6,95

3,95

2,25

1,15

0,75

0,4

0,7

The ratio between the incomes of the richest 10% of the population and the poorest 10% is as follows:

1991 - 4.5:1.

1995 - 6.4:1.

1998 - 37 :1.

The comparison of the 1991 and 1998 data demonstrates the destruction and disappearance of the whole middle class - the main and only possible basis for the social reforms in each and every society. Today in Ukraine there is only one strategy for this group of population - survival at any coast.

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

of Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

The Evaluation of Nominal Wages in Odessa Region

In general in Ukraine the share of wages in the structure of money income has decreased from 68% in 1990 to 48% in 1999.

Dynamics of incomes and payments of the Odessa area population

Dec. 96 Jul. 97 Dec. 97 Nov. 98 Nov. 99 Apr. 2000

Hrv./month

Deficit per capita in %

Dec. 96 Jul. 97 Dec. 97 Nov. 98 Nov. 99 Apr. 2000

Average wage of all categories of employees

Average wage for State Budget organizations

Minimal living budget per capita (one month)

The difference between the nominal wages and need necessary expenses

(% to the wages)

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

of Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

Short conclusions

· The system of social support in the country is far from ideal;

· The level of social support depends on the general poor economic growth;

· In the region there are no long-term programs of social protection of the population.

· Besides the deficit of financial means the main financial capital is concentrated in a bank system, new structures and underground financial turnover the representatives of which are not interested in social investments;

· In a vast number of the social sphere sections the alternative opportunities are absent, the competition relations are not functioning.

· There is a keen necessity of an active influence on the structure of the labor market.

· An extreme attention to the work with young people is needed, attention to the sphere, where the increase of low qualified labor force is progressing.

· Only a complex approach can positively influence the economic state and in general social development of Ukraine.

Population of the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions

Population density in the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions

Industrial Sources of Liquid Waste for Selected Black Sea Regions

Integrated Air Pollution Index for Selected cities in the Black Sea and Azov Sea Regions

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

Mykolayiv area - 13099000

In 1999 there were 16.2 thousand of marriages and

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

mln. of citizens The total monthly average income of the population

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

The Evaluation of Nominal Wages in Odessa Region

Dynamics of incomes and payments of the Odessa area population

Socio-Economical situation in the coastal region

Short conclusions

mln. of citizens

The total monthly average income of the population