London
Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine
Ukrainian National
Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological
Research.
HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.
The statistical data shows the HIV Epidemic development in Ukraine. In
the official UNAIDS announcement it was marked "…. Ukraine is the center
of infection in the Eastern Europe…. and the
registered figures are only the top of the iceberg".
Today HIV/AIDS cases are reported in all administrative areas of
Ukraine with 100 times difference between the first and the last.
|
Regions |
1987-1999(9
m) |
|
|
Donetsk obl. |
6489 |
|
|
Dnepropetrovsk obl. |
6006 |
|
|
Odessa obl. |
4796 |
|
|
Nikolaev obl. |
2050 |
|
|
AR Crimea |
1820 |
|
|
Kyiv city |
1021 |
|
|
Zaporizie obl. |
863 |
|
|
Kharkiv obl. |
858 |
|
|
Poltava obl. |
705 |
|
|
Cherkasy obl. |
700 |
|
|
Lugansk obl. |
681 |
|
|
Khmelnitsky obl. |
385 |
|
|
Sevasyopol obl. |
385 |
|
|
Kherson obl. |
382 |
|
|
Volin obl. |
260 |
|
|
Gitomir obl. |
243 |
|
|
Kyiv city |
239 |
|
|
Chernovitsy obl. |
237 |
|
|
Vinnitsa obl. |
215 |
|
|
Lviv obl. |
214 |
|
|
Chernigiv obl. |
210 |
|
|
Summi obl. |
133 |
|
|
Kirovograd obl. |
104 |
|
|
Ternopil obl. |
104 |
|
|
Zakarpatskaya obl. |
77 |
|
|
Iv-Frankovskaya obl. |
75 |
|
|
Rivne obl. |
65 |
|
|
Total |
29317 |
|
London
Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine
Ukrainian National
Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological
Research.
HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.
The principle change was connected with the outbreak of HIV infection among the drug users started in the Southern region and then involving all Ukraine.
Drug
users registered in Ukraine (Inf.Bul.No 16, Kyiv)
|
Regions |
1998 (9m.) |
% |
1999 (9m.) |
% |
1994-99 (9)* |
% |
|
AR Crimea |
168 |
50.45 |
142 |
57.48 |
1221 |
68.01 |
|
Vinitsa obl. |
l42 |
85.70 |
31 |
72.10 |
161 |
77.00 |
|
Volin obl. |
36 |
94.70 |
10 |
50.00 |
232 |
89.20 |
|
Dnepropetrovsk obl. |
1423 |
85.40 |
684 |
71.10 |
5187 |
86.42 |
|
Donetsk obl. |
996 |
67.70 |
667 |
63.95 |
4810 |
74.50 |
|
Gitomir obl. |
36 |
87.80 |
28 |
65.11 |
205 |
85.01 |
|
Zakarpatskaya obl. |
14 |
73.60 |
5 |
38.46 |
48 |
62.30 |
|
Zaporigie obl. |
168 |
67.74 |
73 |
70.87 |
729 |
85.01 |
|
Iv.-Frankovsk obl. |
12 |
92.30 |
8 |
44.44 |
54 |
72.96 |
|
Kyiv obl. |
38 |
74.50 |
40 |
83.33 |
183 |
62.45 |
|
Kirovograd obl. |
18 |
51.40 |
11 |
45.83 |
56 |
54.90 |
|
Lugansk obl. |
140 |
82.80 |
55 |
67.00 |
555 |
81.60 |
|
Lviv obl. |
49 |
89.00 |
47 |
92.15 |
176 |
84.60 |
|
Nikolaev obl |
365 |
82.00 |
201 |
73.35 |
1590 |
77.60 |
|
Odessa obl. |
308 |
56.10 |
355 |
47.65 |
2972 |
62.60 |
|
Poltava obl. |
202 |
89.30 |
122 |
82.99 |
607 |
87.70 |
|
Rivne obl. |
10 |
58.80 |
4 |
100 |
47 |
72.30 |
|
Summy obl. |
39 |
79.60 |
32 |
80.00 |
100 |
75.76 |
|
Ternopil obl. |
34 |
87.20 |
10 |
90.90 |
88 |
84.60 |
|
Kharkiv obl. |
225 |
74.00 |
58 |
60.41 |
585 |
71.20 |
|
Kherson obl. |
58 |
75.30 |
25 |
51.02 |
302 |
79.30 |
|
Khmelnitsky obl. |
124 |
74.25 |
72 |
65.45 |
282 |
73.20 |
|
Cherkassy obl. |
86 |
86.80 |
76 |
80.00 |
584 |
84.00 |
|
Chernigiv obl. |
45 |
90.00 |
14 |
77.77 |
189 |
90.00 |
|
Chernovitskaya obl. |
25 |
65.80 |
19 |
63.33 |
187 |
80.25 |
|
Kyiv city |
180 |
92.70 |
82 |
89.13 |
806 |
86.00 |
|
Sevastopil city |
115 |
92.00 |
51 |
78.46 |
319 |
83.00 |
|
Total |
4956 |
77.80 |
2922 |
65.32 |
22275 |
76.70 |
* – up to1994 ã. HIV-positive drug users
were not registered.
London
Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine
Ukrainian National
Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological
Research.
HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.
According to the prognosis of the Ukrainian
specialists which was formed on the basis of the present situation by the end
of 2000 we will have 100 000 HIV positive citizens of Ukraine.
According the opinion of the WHO experts we should multiply this figure at least 5 times (500 000).
The group of the international experts developed the short and long-term of HIV/AIDS epidemic development in Ukraine.
According to the executed estimation two options are possible:
"Slow HIV/AIDS" - the variation of development similar to the situation in Western Europe where distribution occurs in very closed and
separate group of drug users without significant involving of the heterosexual
ordinary population.
"Fast HIV/AIDS" - the variant of development similar to the
South East Asia and Brazil, where development of epidemic occurs among the most
heterosexual population. In the case of the "Fast HIV/AIDS epidemic development"
we will have the loses as follows:
By 2010 the total number of HIV-infected can
come up to 1,4 million with the number of new cases per year:
2001 - (20 000 - 24 000)
2006 - (61 000 - 111 000)
2011 - (65 000 - 175 000)
2016 - (40 000 - 155 000).
The number of death cases caused by HIV/AIDS
epidemic will make:
2001 - (12 000 - 13 000)
2006 - (55 000 - 92 000)
2011 - (67 000 - 169 000)
2016 - (45 000 - 163 000).
The total number of deaths caused by HIV/Aids
will
make 0,8 - 1,9 million in 2016.