There is absolutely no question Pope John Paul II had a profound impact on the Philippines, being predominantly a Catholic nation, his two visits brought the people closer to the church and reinforced its conservative stance.  With his passing, you could feel the mourning and the anguish felt by the people, especially the poor who have the highest respect for him.

Our strong belief in God and the expectation that He will take care of us even after life may be the reason why the majority—from the wealthiest to the poorest—have this concept of Bahala Na.  Filipinos are basically conservative by nature.

Even I have experienced this personally with my late mother who was a Catholica Cerrada.  She believed in nothing less than the Church doctrine and dogma as to how life should be lived.  Up to her dying day, she always prodded us to hear mass, to do good to others, hold marriage sacred and pray regularly to the Blessed Virgin Mary.

The next Pope will most definitely determine our fate and the likely successor will follow the same conservative stance of Pope John Paul II considering that of the 120-plus cardinals, only three were not appointed by him.

Many Catholics had nothing but admiration and respect for Pope John Paul II, but analysts say there was a big decline in Church membership all over the world, particularly in Europe and the United States precisely because of the ultra-conservative position of the Pope on crucial issues such as population control and contraception, celibacy, divorce, gay marriage, and the ordination of women to the priesthood.

The concentration of the Catholic faith comes mostly from the developing countries like the Philippines and Latin America.  There are many who believe that the strong influence of the church in the Philippines, especially on the issue of population management, is the reason why we continue to be a poor nation.

We are hoping that the next Pope will have a more liberal view about managing population because that, to my mind, is the only way we can alleviate poverty and grow the economy. 

In fact, this is the thesis of the Foreign Chambers of Commerce on a position paper sent to me by Rob Sears—Executive Director of the American Chamber of Commerce—where they correctly pointed out that no country has achieved developed economic status with a rapidly growing population.

The paper urged the government to adopt a firmer approach to reduce population growth rates significantly so that it will increase per capita income and reduce poverty. 

The statement further pointed out that poor people cannot buy goods and ultimately cannot pay taxes.  A weak investment climate could sow social and political unrest—clearly, population mismanagement only engenders a vicious cycle.

The frontrunners among the papabiles include Nigerian Francis Arinze, who is popular with Protestants and Muslims.  Conventional wisdom says that he is at the lead of the pack, but we can never be too sure with the Byzantine politics of the Curia.  Italy has several candidates namely: Milan Archbishop Dionigi Tettamanzi and Giovanni Battista Re.  Germany has Walter Kasper, an intellectual and theological heavyweight, and Joseph Ratzinger, who is the dean of the College of Cardinals and one of the most powerful men in Rome.  Latin America has the "Jesuit chemist" Buenos Aires Archbishop Jorge Mario Bergoglio.  No Jesuit, however, had ever become Pope, but who can really tell?

With high anxiety, the whole world will be waiting for the "white smoke" and tl\e declaration of "Habemus Papam!"  Will the next Pontiff be an African, an Asian, or will the papacy be awarded to a transitional figure or another long-term helmsman? 

Consider what Philip Jenkins wrote in his book, The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity.  Jenkins asserted that by the year 2050 only one Christian in five will be a non-Latino white person and that the "center of gravity" of the Christian world will have shifted firmly to the Southern Hemisphere.

Within a few decades Kinshasa, Buenos Aires, Addis Ababa, and Manila will replace Rome, Athens, Paris, London, and New York as the new focal points of the Church's universality.  Jenkins continued, "This trend will continue apace in coming years...Even if Christians just maintain their present share of the population in countries like Nigeria and Kenya, Mexico and Ethiopia, Brazil and the Philippines, there are soon going to be several hundred millions more Christians from those nations alone.

Jenkins further notes that by 2050, the church will be dominated by "Filipinos and Mexicans, Vietnamese and Congolese," adding that the 20th century was the last in which "Whites" dominated the Catholic Church. 

To compound matters, Jenkins projected that "religious trends worldwide have the potential to reshape political assumptions in a way that has not been seen since the rise of modern nationalism.  While we can imagine any number of possible futures, a worst-case scenario would include a wave of religious conflicts reminiscent of the Middle Ages, a new age of Christian crusades and Muslim jihads.  Imagine the world of the 13th Century armed with nuclear warheads and anthrax."

In all likelihood, the next Pope will adhere to the conservative views of Pope John Paul II.  It is up to government now how it will manage both the economy and the population considering that GMA has the propensity to tiptoe around the Church.

If it will be our fate that we will have more people in this country in the coming decade and the certainty of having a population of 100-million in 8 years, compounded by the fact that the conservative stance of the Church will be continued by the new Pope, then our population level will most certainly reach 130-million within the next 30 years.

And if that is indeed our fate, so be it.  Right now, we already have around 35 percent living below the poverty line.  Without a doubt, we will have many more living in poverty if the present population growth rate continues.

We can expect more of the middle class to migrate because of the deterioration of the "quality of life" with more Filipinos opting to become OFWs due to the lack of economic growth and job opportunities here.  And if we are to believe what George Bush said when he addressed the Philippine Congress the other year that our workers are "the light of the world," then just maybe that will be our continuing role in this century.

The crux of the matter is that the Church is both the problem and the solution in managing population growth.  As I've consistently and repeatedly said, the operative word is managing—not controlling.

This is the only way we can alleviate poverty in the country.  And for the next two weeks, not only will all roads lead to Rome— more important, all our eyes will be focused on Rome to give us a sense of how our fate will be finally determined and ultimately test our faith in Bathala or in God.

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