The recent military coup in Thailand obviously brought once more questions whether a similar coup will also happen here in the Philippines.  The fact is leftists are uttering dire predictions that GMA will suffer the same fate as Thaksin Shinawatra.

There have been a lot of failed coup attempts in the past, with the military-backed EDSA 1 People Power recognized as the only really successful one.  While EDSA 2 resulted in the ouster of a democratically elected president, its success hinged not so much on the military's active participation, but on its announcement that it was withdrawing its support from President Joseph Estrada.

Since 1986, this country had seen several coup attempts against sitting presidents—nine during the time of Cory Aquino, the bloodiest of which was in 1989; EDSA 2 during Joseph Estrada's term; and the July 2003 Oakwood mutiny and the recently foiled Feb. 24 attempt against GMA.  Some may point to the so-called EDSA 3 in May 2001, but this was more of a last-ditch effort by Estrada loyalists to get back power but it did not have any significant military involvement.

Marcos was able to unify the military during his time precisely because he had them under control.  His declaration of Martial Law in 1972, however, signaled the politicization of the military, when soldiers and generals realized they could wield power outside the barracks.  It was this politicization that bred the abuse of power and corruption, which even today continues to haunt our military.

At the recent MOPC AFP Night with the military top brass present, the prevailing question was, "Will there be another coup in the Philippines?"  AFP Chief Lt. General Jun Esperon said coups are "a thing of the past."  This was echoed by Defense Secretary Avelino "Nonong" Cruz who assured us that coups are indeed, a thing of the past.

Even US Ambassador Kristie Kenney believes "coups are a thing of the past."  But we can't fault skeptics if they take this with a grain of salt.  Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the man who led the coup against Thaksin, said only last March that "Military coups are a thing of the past."  What he probably meant was, "Coups will be a thing of the past after I take over."

Secretary Nonong Cruz says the real threat in this country is terrorism, and the ongoing operations against Muslim renegades in Mindanao and the continued offensives against the New People's Army in the countryside seem to bear out this fact.  But at the end of the day, what we really need is a professional and disciplined military who know that their duty is to protect the people and the constitution.  It goes without saying that we have to equip our soldiers, especially the front liners, with the tools to competently fight the enemy.

There is no question that problems still exist within the ranks, and dissatisfaction over poor pay, little benefits, decrepit guns and "lack of support" have to be addressed.  While there are a few who may contemplate adventurism to air these grievances, there are those who believe that change must come from within, by adhering to the chain of command and giving military grievance committees a chance to work first.  The PMA may be the biggest source of commissionship at this time, but there is a growing number of junior officers who now come from the ranks of the OCS (Officers Candidate School), the OPC (Officer Preparatory Course), the integrees—and this alone points to the existence of factions within the military.

Ironically, the division within the military has been the reason why the coup attempts against GMA were aborted.  The Marine standoff in February is a clear example that there are two factions with differing beliefs, which foiled what could have been the biggest threat against GMA's continued stay in Malacañang.

Marcos exploited the Machiavellian theory of divide and conquer to consolidate his hold on the military.  He encouraged intrigues between General Fabian Ver and General Fidel Ramos and fed the rivalry between the two to keep them under his control.  But when Ramos and Juan Ponce Enrile joined forces, this spelled the end of Marcos's rule.  It just goes to show that Machiavellian tactics may work sometimes—but not when two strong figures come together.  This rivalry and hatred between Ver and Ramos became so deeply entrenched that when Ver was dying, Ramos refused to let him die in his hometown of Sarrat, Ilocos Norte.

Let's not forget however that the Americans continue to play a big role in the unfolding of political events, and it is to their advantage that democratic institutions are preserved in this country.  I have been pointing out that EDSA 1 was the only legitimate people power, and EDSA 2 set back democratic systems in this country with the removal of Joseph Estrada—which was obviously unconstitutional.

I remember Max Soliven and I were together when Mike Malinowski, the American Charge d'Affairs at the time, called me to get in touch with President Estrada and tell him that he could go to the United States since he had a valid US visa—the usual American tactic to avert bloodshed.  The Americans received information from their operatives within the military that AFP Chief of Staff Angie Reyes was planning to withdraw his support.  When I informed Joseph Estrada about this, he replied, "Patay na ako." (I'm dead.)  I informed him about the offer of Mike Malinowski and told him that we had arranged for a private plane to take him to the United States, but Erap declined the offer—probably, remembering what had happened to Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 when he was brought to Hawaii instead of Paoay.

While the military may have successfully staged a coup in Thailand, the whole world is already urging for the return of civilian rule since military dictatorships are, in fact, really a thing of the past.  But we really cannot compare Thailand and the Philippines, because in the first place, we don't have a king that is revered.  Here, we have too many "kings" and the worst part is that they all think they are God's gift to this country.

There's really no comparison between Marcos and GMA either, since the circumstances and conditions are totally different.  There could probably be no military dictatorship again in this country because people will never support it.  And granted that GMA is using the "carrot and stick" approach in dealing with the military, one cannot always successfully rule with carrots when what is obviously needed is a stick.  She had the guts to declare PP 1017 to prevent chaos from happening, considering that there was an attempted coup from one faction in the military, and she needed to restore order before it got out of hand.

There is no doubt the military is the only stabilizing factor in any country.  All the freedoms we currently enjoy today have been largely due to the fact that the armed forces are able to keep insurgents and destabilizers at bay.  The US is very keen in pushing for reforms in the military, because it is for their own best interest that we have disciplined and competent troops in fighting global terrorism.

The bottom line lies in the fact that we need a strong, disciplined, professional and well-funded military with well paid soldiers and generals to avert corruption and adventurism.  Until we have achieved this—the past will continue to haunt us.

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