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October 29, 2006

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

A Thorn Between Two Roses

 

The dangerous slide in US President George Bush's approval ratings is getting Republicans seriously worried that there's a better than even chance that they will lose in the upcoming November 7 midterm elections.  From an Oct. 6-8 Gallup poll showing 42 percent of Americans giving Bush a favorable rating, the president's numbers have taken a dive with 39 percent showing approval while 58 percent expressed disapproval in the Oct. 13-16 survey conducted by USA Today/Gallup.

No political party, whether Democratic or Republican, has yet been successful in a midterm election with a president whose approval rating is perilously low.  And even with a popular president, the party dominating the White House can also suffer big losses like what happened in 1958 when, despite Dwight Eisenhower's 58 percent approval ratings, Republicans still lost 48 seats in the House.  This time around, the Democrats, who have been longing to take the leadership of the House for the last 12 years, need only to win 15 Congressional seats.

In a word, the Democrats are on the offensive while the Republicans are now on the defensive, quite ironic considering that the GOP derided their opponents' "cut and run" policy regarding Iraq and the war on terrorism.  But what's keeping political observers interested is the fact that a woman is leading the Democrats' offensive against Bush—a relative unknown named Nancy Pelosi.  The House minority leader since 2002, the 66-year-old California congresswoman has been aggressively taking to the campaign trail soliciting votes and funds for her party mates as if there is no tomorrow.

Under her leadership, the fractious Democrats have been showing more unity than ever, toeing the party line and effectively blocking Republican initiatives on a number of issues.  Pelosi has politics practically ingrained in her, having grown up in Maryland where her father Thomas D'Alesandro was a prominent politician.  When she married investment banker Paul Pelosi, they moved to San Francisco and became active in politics where she quickly developed a reputation as a remarkable fund raiser.

I had a chance to meet Nancy Pelosi in 1988 at a Democratic fund-raising event at Burlingame in the San Francisco bay area.  She is a gracious person, but is also a straight talker.  In an interview with Time magazine, she said, "Anybody who's ever dealt with me knows not to mess with me."  She has an arsenal of sound bytes that seem to connect with a lot of Americans, effectively using the "lioness metaphor" to send a message across.  "Think of a lioness.  You come anywhere near our cubs, you're dead," she said, when Republicans tried to portray her as a weakling on national security issues, and more recently on the scandal involving former congressman Mark Foley's sexually suggestive messages to teenage pages.  If the Democrats succeed in controlling the House, Nancy Pelosi—who has made history of sorts by becoming the first woman to lead a political party in Congress—will make another first by becoming the first female Speaker in the history of the United States.

But if the sight of a female speaker sitting behind the president of the United States during the State of the Union Address is already awesome, just imagine what it would be like if that president also happens to be a woman—a scenario that Hillary Clinton's supporters will certainly find welcome.  Hillary has already made a first by becoming the first former US First Lady to get elected as Senator.

And though she avoided the issue during a debate with her opponent in the New York senatorial elections, she did not discount the possibility of her being the Democratic front liner for the 2008 presidential elections—and becoming the first female president of the US if her luck holds out.  Hillary has admitted to being fixated in taking back the House and the Senate, disclosing that a number of Republicans have been going to her parties and intimating that they want a change in their country's direction.

In fact, her opponent John Spencer has criticized her for "putting her presidential ambitions ahead" of her constituents.  The belief that Hillary has her eyes set on the presidency in 2008 is bolstered by the fact that her husband, former president Bill Clinton, is back in the hustings, aggressively campaigning for Democratic candidates all over the country.  It's a move that's probably geared towards collecting political lOUs which could pave the way for Hillary's expected run for the White House in 2008.

From the way things look, luck seems to be on the side of the Democrats.  Just when the Republicans thought they were getting the upper hand, riding high on sentiments after 9/11's fifth anniversary which pushed the approval ratings of President Bush over 40 percent, the Mark Foley scandal erupted early this month, effectively putting a damper on the GOP's hopes to control both Houses of Congress, because it reminded Americans of their unhappiness over Republican leadership in Congress.

Iraq, of course, continues to be a major issue, with the violence escalating and more and more Americans feeling dissatisfied about the issue.  As a matter of fact, similarities between Iraq and the war in Vietnam in 1968 are being played up.  Then President Lyndon Johnson tried to bolster support for the war effort, but the growing anti-war sentiment in the US led to protests that eventually forced him to withdraw his bid for reelection.  Today, George Bush is being pushed to a corner, and has met with the military top brass to rethink the US strategy in Iraq.  This month alone, over 90 US soldiers have been killed—the highest number ever reported, topping the 76 killed in April this year.

As the November election draws nearer, more voters seem to be giving Bush more negative ratings on other major issues.  Aside from Iraq and the Foley scandal, the bungled rescue efforts for victims of Hurricane Katrina, illegal immigrants, rising costs of healthcare and concerns on energy costs and America's dependence on oil are pushing voters straight into the arms of Democrats.  That Democrats could take control, not only of Congress, but the Senate is not too farfetched, considering that Bush is beginning to be seen as a thorn by the American public while the two Democratic roses—Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton—are smelling better and better as the election day draws nearer.

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