Babe's Eye View article

Everybody seems to be playing hop, skip and jump—crossing over from one political fence to another—all looking at 2010 and possible alliances that would assure them of political victory. Everyone is positioning himself, trying to outdo one another with charges and counter-charges all with one thing in mind—everyone wants to be president.

In this country, political fence hopping is not new, with numerous examples of politicians crossing party lines for the sake of expediency. History in this country always repeats itself. Ramon Magsaysay was with the Liberal Party when he was appointed as Elpidio Quirino's defense secretary.

Magsaysay was a viable candidate for the presidency, but when Quirino decided to run for re-election, Magsaysay bolted and joined the Nacionalista Party. Magsaysay, who was an extremely popular man, won but unfortunately he had a very short-lived presidency, dying in a plane crash on March 17,1957.

The same is true with Emmanuel Pelaez and Ferdinand Marcos who were both promised the presidency by Diosdado Macapagal—father of the incumbent Malacañang occupant—who said he would not run for reelection. When Macapagal reneged on his promise, both jumped ship from the LP to the Nacionalista Party. Pelaez—a Jesuit-trained idealist who was a classmate of my father at the Ateneo—refused to take part in "vote buying" during the Nacionalista Party convention where he and Marcos competed to become standard bearer, saying "I would rather be right than be president." He was right—he did not become president.

The clever Fidel Ramos who lost to Ramon Mitra during the LDP convention, maneuvered to form his own party with his usual divide and conquer strategy, becoming a minority president. In this country, people follow a personality, not a platform or ideology—which is why it is relatively easy for politicians to hop from one political fence to another.

Filipinos also have short memories and over the years, find it easy to forgive erstwhile "transgressions." Take Manny Villar who as Speaker of the House was instrumental in sending to the Senate the impeachment complaint against Joseph Estrada. But in the last elections, he ran under the Opposition party with the blessings of Erap. With talk floating around of a possible Villar-Jinggoy Estrada tandem, it goes without saying that an Erap endorsement could boost Villar's winability in 2010.

Another presidentiable is Mar Roxas, the former president's original cabinet appointee who was reappointed by GMA as DTI Secretary. Mar has been carefully grooming his image as everyman's "Mr. Palengke," cleverly projecting himself as a populist legislator who seems to swing whichever way the "masa" sentiment blows. Not to be outdone is Loren Legarda who topped the last May senatorial elections. Judging by the results, everything seems to have been forgiven and forgotten. As most politicians say, "politika lang 'yan."

But perhaps everyone's biggest fear is the political comeback of Joseph Estrada who had virtually admitted not closing the door on the possibility of running for public office again. Despite his impeachment, one could say Erap has been lucky. His ups and downs bear truth to that adage about life being stranger than fiction. Those who had written the former president off after EDSA Dos now see an obvious upturn in his political fortune.

With GMA's popularity going down over the last four years, Erap's pardon was inevitable. Obviously, there was a quid pro quo. The declining support of FVR for GMA has been apparent, perhaps a result of her refusal to heed his "Solomonic" suggestion to step down and pave the way for Charter Change. The pardon was an adroit political maneuver by GMA who, besieged by threats of coup plots plus the infighting and pressure by her allies, sought to swing the balance of power her way by tacitly courting Joseph Estrada's support. The former president's popularity has remained intact despite his six-year detention, evident in the winners and losers in the May elections.

It would make more sense for the Estrada camp to see GMA remain in power, unpopular though she is at the moment—rather than have Noli de Castro replace her because he will then have the power of the incumbent. With government resources plus his considerable popularity among the masses, De Castro would pose a stiff challenge against any Estrada candidate. On the other hand, there's the possible "Dream Team" of Loren Legarda and Mar Roxas for president and vice president, respectively, both heavyweights who topped their senatorial races. Unless, of course, the macho mentality prevails and Filipinos start grumbling about having yet another woman president.

And let's not discount other hopefuls like Ping Lacson and Chiz Escudero who are not exactly shy about their presidential ambitions, plus other wannabes who probably won't even get one percent of the vote. If this trend continues, whoever will get the affection of the masses and the nod of the elite will most likely make it in 2010.

In any event, it looks like GMA has outmaneuvered everyone again. Her master stroke of granting executive clemency has certainly earned her the appreciation of die-hard Erap supporters. While her decision has alienated some segments of society—as GMA herself admitted—her savvy political balancing act has pacified the other side which she thinks could give her the necessary numbers to stay in power.

Let's wait and see how this whole thing develops. After all, politics—which seems to be the "be all and end all" in this country—has never really stopped. It just becomes more intense as the countdown to the 2010 race comes to a close.