Babe's Eye View article

In 1974, Time magazine ran an article about the world food crisis in the early 1970s, opening with a biblical quotation describing nations rising against nations, famines and troubles that herald "the beginnings of sorrows."

It painted a grim picture of the global situation: world grain reserves at a 22-year low, just enough for 26 days; half a billion people suffering from hunger with 10,000 dying of starvation each week in Africa, Asia and Latin America; food riots becoming ordinary occurrences in certain parts of Asia; governments being toppled by irate citizens reeling from shortages and high food prices; droughts, typhoons, harsh winters and other climatic changes destroying crops and threatening food supplies in Nepal, Somalia, Tanzania, Zambia, Mexico and the Philippines; and huge oil price increases—rising nearly 450 percent from October 1973 to May 1974—curtailing economic growth particularly in Third World countries.

The situation has become so alarming that it prompted delegates and experts from 100 countries to gather in Rome for the UN-sponsored "World Food Conference" to address the problem.

Back then, the delegates came up with a three-point plan to address the crisis and prevent a similar occurrence in the future: The establishment of a world food bank; the creation of an International Fund for Agriculture Development with a $5 billion yearly commitment for 10 years to improve agriculture; and the launching of a food forecasting system to provide early warning for any future crisis.

The response from the global community was positive, as emergency funding (from 1974 to 1976) alleviated the suffering in some of the worst-hit countries like famine- and war-stricken Bangladesh.

But perhaps what was most significant even then was the emphasis on population explosion, especially in the poorest countries, as a major cause of the food shortage since the supply could hardly keep up with the increasing demand for food.

At the time, the global population was approximately 3.9 billion, growing at a rate of 200,000 people a day or 75 million a year. With a 2.2 percent growth rate, India's population of 596 million was projected to double by 2000.

"The apparent inability, or unwillingness, of most poor countries to restrain their profligacy has embittered many agricultural economists," the article pointed out. It quoted a Nobel Laureate complaining that the "miracle seeds" meant to give underdeveloped nations some margin to reduce their population growth and improve the nutrition of their people have been wasted "because political leaders in developing nations have refused to come to grips with the population monster."

In fact, population management advocates and their proposals to reduce birth rates from 2 percent to 1.7 percent in 10 years were jeered at, with Latin American countries saying overpopulation was "a myth invented by the rich to exploit the poor."

More than three decades later, we are at a situation described as far worse than the 1973-1974 world food crisis, the condition exacerbated by oil prices at an all-time high amid worries of supply shortage; global economic recession; the threat of terrorism; crops and harvests destroyed by droughts, typhoons and highly-erratic weather changes; diseases and illnesses brought about by pollution and other effects of global warming—all these threatening the existence of the poorest among nations, among them the Philippines with its dependence on food imports and its susceptibility to food shocks.

Obviously, we have not learned the lessons from the past. We neglected our agriculture sector and to this day, we have yet to come up with a sound population management policy. Leaders still fail to realize that the food crisis is not only a question of increasing production to bolster supply, but also a matter of demand, with more people added up to the population at a rate faster and higher than farmers can grow rice grains and other staple crops.

We continue to be reactive rather than proactive, coming up with myopic schemes such as a P5-billion cash dole-out program for poor families which, in the words of DSWD officials, is meant to "alleviate short-term needs"—rather than focusing on long-term actions and solutions.

We're lucky we still have some things going for us even while the deck seems stacked against us. The peso is relatively steady and OFW remittances continue to come in, helping keep the economy afloat, but this will not be of much help if the rice and food shortage situation gets worse.

True, there are no quick-fix solutions to a problem that has become complicated through the years, but we have to start somewhere. We must enhance the tourism industry because of its vast potential to boost the economy. Agriculture must be improved with more support given to farmers and post-harvest facilities for us to achieve food security.

With oil prices predicted to hit $200 per barrel by 2010 or earlier, we have to find ways to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels by utilizing natural resources to generate electricity, like the way Iceland has harnessed geothermal and hydroelectric resources to supply their energy needs. Every little effort matters—even in making changes in people's eating habits to prevent wastefulness, or mixing rice with corn like in the '70s.

Most of all, we have to tone down politics in this country. What will happen in the next couple of months is something more urgent and pressing than buying out Meralco or not, pushing through with Charter Change or shifting to Federalism, or even investigating the Hanjin bribery allegations. No doubt the going's gonna get rough. The big question is, what do we do? It's better to ask the question now rather than later.