Babe's Eye View article

The last time the World Health Organization declared a flu pandemic was 41 years ago with the 1968 Hong Kong flu which caused the death of one million people. In 1918, the world was devastated by the Spanish flu which, according to estimates, killed as many as 50 million worldwide, with the first 25 million deaths occurring in the first six months. Interestingly, the Spanish flu did not originate from Spain but the nickname stuck because during that time, Spain—which remained neutral during World War I—did not censor the news about the disease, making it appear that it was the most infected country.

The WHO however is quick to emphasize that the current flu pandemic is “moderate” and should not cause extreme measures like the closing of borders or restricting trade or travel. (Just recently, a bus arriving to Argentina from Chile was stoned because people thought a passenger was infected.) The primary reason for elevating the alert level to its highest, officials said, has more to do with the rapid and seemingly unstoppable spread of the disease globally rather than its virulence.

Pandemics happen every now and then, like the 1957 Asian flu pandemic (not to be confused with the 1997 flu outbreak which did not escalate into a pandemic) first identified in China which caused four million deaths worldwide. Epidemics for that matter have also become an inevitable part of life due to a lot of causes, with climate change increasingly being pinpointed as the culprit for the outbreak and rapid spread of all kinds of diseases—which only goes to show that we live in an imperfect world.

Some critics however blasted the WHO for taking its time in declaring the swine flu as a pandemic, saying the health body gave way to politics and pressure from countries that did not want a pandemic declaration to cause social and economic disruptions. But as a health expert pointed out, the “soft buildup” to declaring a pandemic helped people understand and get used to the disease, leading to reactions that were “more information-based and a little less emotional.” In short, panic and hysteria was averted.

One area of concern is the seeming fatality of the disease among pregnant women. Reports confirmed that two women in the US have died of swine flu complications after delivery and several have miscarried after contracting it. Preliminary studies indicate that 17 percent of Americans hospitalized for the disease were pregnant. This is similar to the 1918 Spanish flu where high rates (26 percent) of spontaneous abortion occurred while 52 percent developed pneumonia after infection. While doctors are reluctant to administer antiviral drugs to pregnant women, a number of experts believe the benefits far outweigh the risks.

Let’s admit it, when news about swine flu was just starting to spread, Health Secretary Francisco Duque was ridiculed for being “OA,” for insisting that precautionary measures be taken. Now it’s becoming evident that he was right, and that the steps he took like thermal scanning, monitoring, contact-tracing and aggressive information dissemination helped in getting the people ready for the disease. While the number of confirmed cases is rising (92 as of last count), the death toll has, thankfully, remained zero.

According to the DOH, they have a stockpile of 1.2 million tablets of Tamiflu and are expecting a donation of 500,000 more. (Max Soliven used to tell me that this Tamiflu is a “wonder drug.”) The same goes for other Asian countries, among them Hong Kong which has 20 million doses of Tamiflu, India which raised its supply from 3 million to 10 million and Japan which has enough supply for 33 million people. I understand Tamiflu has been made a prescription drug to prevent hoarding and panic-buying especially by the wealthy who could afford it.

Drug companies like GlaxoSmithKline are also getting prepared to produce swine flu vaccine, although it will take some time (perhaps July) before they could start commercial production. Ordinary flu usually declines during warm weather but experts are working doubly hard to figure out this strain since it appears to be more resilient, continuing to spread despite the onset of summer. Based on reports, people above 65 and young children seem to be the most affected by the swine flu.

Since April, almost 30,000 people have been infected in 74 countries, with the death toll inching to 150. Although statistics appear low compared to 500,000 deaths caused by seasonal (“ordinary,” if you will) flu, still there is no room for complacency since pandemics have been known to come back for a “second wave,” and in a more deadly form.

Perhaps health officials should pay particular attention to congested places with high population like slum areas where a virus could spread like wildfire with people living in wall-to-wall houses. If one will remember, a recent report by the UN said the rampant growth of slums has increased the risk for natural disasters like typhoons, earthquakes and floods, and it’s not unlikely that the spread of diseases like swine flu could be exacerbated with rampant population growth in places where there is very little access to water. And compounded by poor sanitary practices, the mix could produce lethal complications.

In any case, people can fight the rapid spread of the disease not through panic and hysteria but with sobriety, teaching children to be conscious of hygiene, washing their hands, using alcohol, eating healthy, sleeping well and taking vitamins to build up resistance. At the end of the day, the best reaction during pandemics like this swine flu would still be plain and simple “clean living.”