September 28, 2003

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

Political Scenario: A Brewing 

Class War   

By Babe Romualdez

Opposition parties Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), National People’s Coalition (NPC), Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), PDP-Laban, and the Liberal Party (LP) came together the other day to form a strong united front because by all indications, GMA will run in 2004. Being an incumbent candidate, she would be very hard to beat. Not only does the incumbent have the financial resources to fund a presidential campaign, but for the opposition, the term “equity of the incumbent” simply means control over the Comelec. The opposition clearly needs someone who will be popular enough like Erap Estrada who got a six million margin of votes in 1998 over his closest rival, administration candidate Joe de Venecia, and bagged about 40-percent of the votes from all 10 presidentiables. Only the likes of FPJ or Noli de Castro could garner as much as, or even more votes than Estrada because of the sheer size of their fans and followers, most of whom belong to the masses. The country today has around 38 million voters population, and a big bulk of this comes from the poor. With the growing population rate, 40-percent of which belonging to the D-E class, you can bet your bottom dollar they will choose someone they can identify with. 

That’s why the united opposition party the other night formed a five-member committee, headed by Ed Angara, to choose a candidate that would be popular and winnable enough to go against a possible GMA candidacy. Although Ping Lacson is the only party member who declared that he would run in 2004, he also said he would readily give way to any person the united opposition will choose. Reluctant candidate Danding Cojuangco is still making his consultation tours, but is expected to make a decision soon. His younger brother Henry tells us Danding is tilting towards making a positive decision. The united opposition is also looking at Senators Gringo Honasan and Aquilino Pimentel as possible standard bearers. GMA is expected to announce her own candidacy on or before October 10, shortly before the Bush arrival. Needless to say, the united opposition has very little time left to choose their standard-bearer.

Getting a candidate by popularity is probably fine if all things were going well for the country. The United States can afford to install Hollywood actor Ronald Reagan, but as far as the Philippines is concerned, we can no longer afford it because of the numerous problems of the country, compounded by a “ticking time bomb.” We all know that popularity in any manner or form cannot unite a fragmented public, nor would it be enough to solve the serious problems of this country. In fact, many analysts believe that if the public insist on having a popular candidate as president, it would only aggravate the division by class, all the more widening the gap between the rich and the poor. This would definitely bring about a “classic” class war. We have already seen the beginnings of this class war during the Labor Day siege of Malacañang when the supporters of Erap crashed their way to the Palace grounds and pelted the PSG with rocks and stones. No doubt, a violent takeover of any kind and by anyone is something we absolutely do not need.

The leader we should vote for in 2004 should have the capacity to unite a fragmented public, and turn things around for this country. He or she should be able to reverse what I call the Plague of Ps – population, poverty and too much politicking. We should vote for someone with enough political will to decide with the people whether we should change the system of government or not. To illustrate my point, we can compare this country to an aircraft. In 1986, we got a new pilot, and brand new engines. But due to the weight of the aircraft -- economic problems, a growing population, six coup attempts – we were not able to take off. In 1992, again, we changed the pilot and this time we got one with more experience. The aircraft lifted off for a while, but it had to go back immediately to the hangar due to the 1997 Asian Crisis and the premature tinkering of the Constitution. In 1998, we again got a new pilot, but as we were lifting off halfway above the runway, we suddenly changed the pilot with the co-pilot, and the sudden shift almost forced the aircraft to crash. In 2004, we will again have the chance to choose a pilot, perhaps for the last time, one that we must make sure is qualified, with the ability and political will to solve the poverty and population problems that are weighing down the country. Next year too, we also have the option to buy a new aircraft altogether. We could start considering and studying the possibility of changing the system of government to a form that would fit the temperament of Filipinos. To vote for a qualified candidate and to choose a change of the system of government could most likely avert the brewing class war in our midst. 

There is no question that Filipinos are sick and tired of politics. About 98-percent of the public, the highest ever in local television history, took a rest from too much politics and preferred to watch the real life telenovela of Joey Marquez and Kris Aquino. The only show that could rival this drama is the “Thrilla in Manila” boxing match between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier 30 years ago, having garnered 97-percent viewership. What we need for 2004 is an experienced “pilot” by analogy, one that has the guts to fly the aircraft even with strong winds and an impending storm, and one that has the political will to ease the weight of population and poverty so the aircraft can finally reach its destination. Otherwise, an inexperienced pilot with very little credentials would most likely turn us back, or worse, could very well bring us all down with him. 

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