September 07, 2003

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

No Elections Will Spell 

Disaster For The Country  

By Babe Romualdez

The exposé war between the incumbent administration and the opposition is getting so heated up, it seems both camps are throwing everything including every available kitchen sink at each other. Some may think it amusing, even comical. But the country’s situation today is nothing less than unstable, like a tree without roots. Worse, it’s even explosive, almost like walking blindfolded through a minefield without knowing when and where the next explosion would occur. All this political “mud wrestling” is really hurting the country, and I’m not only talking about the usual problems like low investor confidence, fall of the peso, weakening peace and order condition, budget deficit, etc. These are just symptoms. I’m talking of too much politicking. Now this is the disease. Conspiracies, destabilization plots, secret bank accounts, multimillion dollar under-the-table deals, cloak-and-dagger operations, coup rumors, black propaganda, graft and corruption, military overthrow, political grandstanding, "Sex, Lies, and Videotapes." 

Many believe this “I get you, you get me” kind of politics is a direct result of People Power II. For sure this cycle of political vindictiveness will be hard to break now that it’s on a roll. Worse, although Philippine politics have all the makings of a Hollywood blockbuster movie, foreign investors are not watching the show with popcorn in their hands. No wonder the country is still feeling the crunch on investments despite the World Bank’s 2004 Global Economic Prospects report that says the world economy is already on a tentative rebound.

But what disturbs most people, especially businessmen, is the on-going rumor that we will not have national elections in 2004. Some are already calling for snap elections, while civil society groups are seeking the resignation of GMA. For the business sector, this is definitely a no-win solution to our country’s situation. This is just as intolerable (or more…), I suppose, than rumors of a military junta. In the first place, what good will a no-election scheme do for the country? Would it solve our problems? Will it bring back investor confidence? I doubt it very much. As a matter of fact, it will definitely make matters worse for the economy. The United States has made it perfectly clear it will never recognize any change of government through unconstitutional means. This will then have a domino effect. Our creditors will pull the plug and the peso will surely fall way beyond the P100-per-dollar prediction of Lucio Tan. No one in his right frame of mind would want that to happen. 

As I have said in my previous article, business thrives on predictability. Danding Cojuangco said in his speech at the joint luncheon meeting of the Canadian, European and Japanese Chambers of Commerce, “Government’s ability to provide the framework of stability, the rule of law, a sound macroeconomic policy and infrastructure on which enterprise can flourish is a very real need.” And with the global economy’s center of gravity shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, if we don’t do anything fast, for sure we will be left out of the growth spiral. Truth to tell, all this political mudslinging is already taking its toll on the country. Filipinos are now left with a Senate that’s neck deep into investigations (rather than drafting laws), a military institution weakened by scandals and divided at the very core, an economy that’s just as stagnant as our esteros, a society drowning in a flashflood of confusion, and a presidency in the very throes of on-going disappointments. Top this with the First Family coming under fierce fire from the opposition and what do we have? A country very much like a chicken running around without a head. This time, however, Filipinos will not stage their grievances with colorful confetti and yellow ribbons tied around the old oak tree, but with blood stained shirts. We have seen a prelude of this during the May 1 siege of Malacañang and the Oakwood rebellion. 

If Filipinos continue to disregard its present political state, Lucio Tan’s prediction that “the sleeping lion will sleep for another 100 years” may not even come true. The lion would be dead by then. On the other hand, civil society should stop seeking the resignation of GMA because it would be suicidal. We have barely eight months to go before the May elections and to be impatient at this point could spell disaster for the country. Guess who will suffer in the end? It’s good old Johnny dela Cruz again. That is why I believe the parliamentary form of government is more in tune with the sentiments of Filipinos. With Spanish influence and temperament running through our veins, this is probably the best choice for a form of government. Under this system, Filipinos can formally change the leadership without going out into the streets. The next president should seriously consider this kind of structural change to effectively push for reforms in the country and eventually have a stable government. 

As a friend of GMA, let me say with all due respect to the president that her silence on whether she would run or not in 2004 is also partly to blame for the continuing attack against the First Gentleman. People feel that she’s running, and if she is, she might as well say so. Nonetheless, her daughter Luli, who is vehemently against her running, has good reason behind it. This is because of the way GMA got into power -- that’s why the tension is running higher and the attacks are even more vicious than ever before. This is obviously not only breaking her family, but the country as well. The political division in this country is one of the worst I’ve seen in years. Many want her to focus her energies to ensuring clean, credible and orderly elections. At the end of the day, GMA has to decide by her lonesome self whether she is running for the sake of the country or not. I am certain that in the end, she would decide what is best for the country and ultimately for herself.

We can go on with our politicking, bickering, mudslinging, criticisms and investigations provided we ensure that national elections regularly happen every six years. I can see no reason to put it aside just because the country has problems. In fact, for what it’s worth, it’s a step toward a solution: change of leadership through elections and not through extraordinary means. Snap elections, coups, military juntas, a revolution – they’re out of the question at this time. Hopefully we will have a good set of candidates, and ideally, we should really have a majority president that would effect the necessary structural changes, and the stability and predictability that business and the people have been longing for. We can only hope that those in power and positions of influence could -- just this once -- think country and not their own personal agenda.

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