Handicapping Daily

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PREVIOUS SUCCESSFUL ANALYSIS

Belmont Park, July 23, 1999

RACE 8 - Even without the track favoring speed a wire job would be looming here anyhow with SAMMY DUDE. Stretches out (which his breeding indicates should be OK) to a 1 turn mile and dueling Doomsday Defense into defeat in his last and that rival came back to run a sharp second Wednesday against a better field than his one. Chased the fast Cellular Joe 3 back off the layoff and that was prior to him receiving blinkers which have clearly sharpened his speed even more. Ran 2YO figures better than his rivals 3YO figures including a second in a maiden race to now stakes winner Mr. Buffim. Bug boy Diego at his best on the front end and catching him today will be next to impossible.

RESULT:  Sammy Dude won and paid an overlaid $ 20.80!

Churchill Downs, May 26, 1999

RACE 1 - I am convinced that ALOWEEN is a sprinter but he has such a huge class over these, and this race has so little pace in it, it likely won't matter. Caught the stakes class On The Side, Santoni, Davey's Cutlass and Sadler Slew in his straight maiden races and did not disgrace himself at all. O'Callahan known for prematurely dropping maidens as he similarly dropped a colt named Echo of the Past at FG and that rival not only won by daylight that day, he has since won 2 allowances races by daylight too. Use a bit of caution with the bet size as this is not his best distance but, as noted, it is unlikely to matter.

RACE 2 - Why in the world NUTTIN BUT RUNNIN was shortened up to a one turn mile last time completely escapes me but, despite the outside draw, he is back to his game of 2 turns today. Except when catching multiple graded stakes placed Nite Dreamer, all of his 2 turn races are stellar and he should get a good trip either on a soft pace or stalking a fast one but won't get cooked dueling wide through suicide splits the way he did in the 1 turn race last time.

RESULT:  Aloween won at 2-1, Nuttin But Runnin won at 6-1 and the daily double paid $50.

Churchill Downs, May 30, 1999

RACE 1 - This is about the 3rd day in a row I have been forced to take a horse ridden by the second worst judge of pace in the country, Willie Martinez. Nevertheless, RICHWOOD REBEL ran a huge race after drawing in from the also eligible list in his debut and being forced to race extremely wide on a track favoring the inside. He is out of freshman sire Eagle Eyed who is off to a great start with this 2YO's, both at the sale and on the track. Further, this colt is a 1/2 brother to multiple graded stakes winner Chief Honcho who was one of the best handicap horses in the country for Bill Mott in 1991. Martinez is at his worst on 2YO's as he is scared to death of them. Nevertheless, he is a little better with ones that have already raced and if just gets this one out clean, he will awfully tough in the opener at likely fair odds.

RACE 2 - With Fatima Blush appearing to the be the main speed and being ridden by a woeful gate rider and unlikely to get the distance as well, and considering this is the one distance where speed does not hold well, a upset is likely in the 2nd. MS. KELLAR's one lifetime win came around 1 turn, yet she is bred to go long. This distance seems to be the perfect balance between her breeding and what she has demonstrated a preference for in her races. Last race was actually much better than I expected from her that day as that field was, much, much, much better. Further, she broke from the 11 hole against extremely fast fractions and the winner saved ground on the rail until the stretch and the 2nd finisher was the pace setter. Should be much closer to the pace today and Johnson is clearly better with come from behind runner like this one.

RESULT:  Richwood Rebel won at 9-2, Ms. Keller won at 11-1 and the daily double paid $130.20.

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