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TODAY'S FREE SELECTION

TODAY'S FREE SELECTION:

GULFSTREAM PARK - November 6, 1999

INTRODUCTORY NOTE - Conventional wisdom is that the Europeans are doomed due to this year's venue and their past failures here. However, not only has no one ever made any money going with conventional wisdom but there is a big reason this year to take the opposite approach. Although some divisions are weaker than others, the fact of the matter is that this has been a down year for the North Americans and a way above par year for the Europeans. Many need not even run their best to win and should be huge overlays.

BC DISTAFF - BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE will, once again, be out galloping on an easy lead because trying to go with her would be suicide and with 4th place worth $50K, that is not going to happen. It is a widely held belief that Banshee Breeze has some problems, I tend to believe it too and even if she doesn't that last race was hideous and this field is too good to simply hope there was a reason to throw it out. Silverbullitday has been in constant training since March of her 2YO year and her less than impressive win 2 back got some people wondering as much as her defeat last out. She is likely over the top and will be grossly overbet. KEEPER HILL's last came as no surprise to me whatsoever as her race 2 back hinted that she was improving as it was around only 1 turn (not her game) and she attended a very fast pace. She may not win that often but if you look only at her 2 turn races on fast tracks her running lines are much more impressive. She may not win again today but second to BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE will inflate the exacta to $40 or more on what certainly looks to be the most likely result.

BC JUVENILE FILLIES - Of the legitimate contenders in here, only 1 is bred for the distance and that is SURFSIDE. Further, although she won last time at this distance, you have to remember that it was around 1 turn, not 2 like today. She should move way up around the 2 turns whereas Darling My Darling should regress. Many will see Deputy Minister and assume that she will also relish the extra turn but that is a major error. Her dam Roamin Rachel would not run a centimeter past 7 furlongs and she is by Mining whose offspring win around 2 turns about once every leap year. Chilukki was not very impressive, as expected, in her first 2 turn attempt last time and, although she should be a brilliant sprinter, will be gasping for air today while SURFSIDE hits her best stride. One final note, SURFSIDE won last time while on a rail that was bogging down everything on it, making her performance all the more impressive. Chilukki will likely get second on class alone but you may not want to blow an overlaid win price on a near cinch trying to hit an underlaid exacta price that may not happen. SURFSIDE to win is TODAY'S BEST.

BC MILE - This is one of the absolute weakest divisions for the U.S. horses with the import Silic having the best shot to salvage a win for the home team. However, although I loved her in her last, it was due to the fact that she was "least slowest". Brave Act, who "they" always bet, will likely take some money again today and took enough last time to Silic to pay much more than he should have. Note: In case you are wondering who "they" are, "they" are those with plenty of money but no handicapping ability who kept pounding Stephen Got Even in the Triple Crown after he totally bias produced victory at Turfway. Anyhow, the winner of this race will be either SUSU or LEND A HAND who both exit the very rapidly run Champion Stakes going 7/8 at Newmarket. SUSU seems better at a mile whereas LEND A HAND may not like the extra furlong. SUSU

also comes from well off the pace, which should be asset in this speed laden field, and has the better rider. In addition, throw out the dirt races in SUSU's PP's and she sure looks a lot different doesn't she? If not for the post, she would have been a near cinch to bury these. Although not that, she still should run by in the stretch at a grossly overlaid price. One final note: The one European that even those anti-European handicappers have taken a fancy to is Docksider. This is largely due to the fact that his connections smartly brought him over a month ago to acclimate. However, you can get 25-1 on him from any bookie in England as of Friday night. Enough said? It is for me.

BC SPRINT - Artax can rate but not can't win the BC Sprint rating and he won't get the lead. Forestry needs an extra furlong, as does Affirmed Success. Speaking of him, I have decided to make him my first 2 time winner of the Handicapping Daily Rubiano award. This award is given to the best 7 furlong horse in New York who people inexplicably love to bet against the best 6 furlong horses. The first winner was Rubiano himself and other notable winners in the 90's include Birdonthewire, Not Surprising and Langfuhr. Anyhow, back to the race: Enjoy The Moment kills the chances of Artax and Lexicon and I don't think that Kona Gold, our longshot pick last year, or Big Jag are nimble enough to close from the inside which in between horses. Vicar is too slow and another 7 furlong horse as well, ditto for Furlough and Successful Appeal's last race was the only time in his life he has come close to running fast enough to win this. Guess what? Like Stephen Got Even in the Spring, he got a day at Turfway when the rail was completely dead and those up close on the outside won every race. That race was counterfeit and for exhibit "A" look at what happened to Regally Appealing in the Florida Stallion Stakes. She was beaten at 1-5 coming off a supposed impressive race while stalking from the outside that day at Turfway. After Successful Appeal gets beat, everyone will say he bounced. He is not going to bounce, he will never, ever run that fast again under normal conditions. We are now left with STRAVINSKI who I have researched extensively and am convinced is the best European sprinter since Dayjur. He has improved dramatically since the blinkers were added and since his very astute trainer figured out he liked firm ground and wants no more than 6 furlongs. Unlike most in here this IS his distance. I really like the fact that his connections did not "off the cuff" say he could run on the dirt, rather they also entered him in the mile until they saw him work over it. They let some dirt get kicked in his face which his very able rider said did not bother him and then entered this race. Looking at his pedigree is tricky as he is bred to be a middle distance grass horse yet does not want to go past 6 furlongs. I think I found out why. His 2nd dam is from the Raise A Native line (she is by Mr. Prospector) and is closely inbred to Native Dancer. This is the only thing in his pedigree that could explain his being a sprinter and, interestingly, this part of the family which has evidently determined his distance preference, is also strictly a dirt influence. One final thought: He should be somewhere near 20-1 and, unlike Dockside who the British bookies don't fancy, you can't get over 6-1 on him in the UK. Obviously, STRAVINSKI is TODAY'S VALUE PLAY.

BC FILLY & MARE TURF - I consider the 4-1 I got on Soaring Softly first time turf to be one of the best overlays I got all this year. Why? She was bred to be a grass champion and I am shocked that it took so long for her connections to put her on her proper surface. Since they have, they have reaped rewards as her only defeat came over a rock hard course that she clearly did not care for. Still, who was she beating? A weak division of North American female grass horses this year. BORGIA only failed by a neck to Japan Cup winner El Condor Pasa 2 back and if anyone out there truly believes that Heritage of Gold, Starry Dreamer, Anguilla or Coretta could finish with 10 lengths of El Condor Pasa, you would be well advised to donate you bankroll to your favorite charity and stay home tomorrow. BORGIA has a HUGE class advantage here and was getting rave reviews for her training prior to the Arc which was contested over a boggy course that was so deep the races would have been canceled if that were not Europe's biggest race. Like Daylami later, that race is a legitimate throw out and she should drill these. Soaring Softly is the best the rest and should be included in your Pick 6 as a saver in the event that BORGIA gets a brutal trip or gets DQed or something.

BC JUVENILE - This is another that should be strictly a 2 horse race. CHIEF SEATTLE was the most impressive maiden winner, visually speaking, of the entire Saratoga meet. He then has a brutal trip in the Futurity and ran huge in the Champaign when dueling More Than Ready into the ground and, although the race set up perfectly for the winner Greenwood Lake, note that High Yield had the garden spot just off the speed duel and still could not get by him. FOREST CAMP just went too fast on the lead last time and should relax better 2nd time around 2 turns and has a good post to do just that. If he does, the tactical advantage should get him home first. If not, CHIEF SEATTLE should not be caught.

BC TURF - DAYLAMI was the best grass horse in the world last year which he proved when blowing past Bucks Boy in the Man O War when it appeared he was hopelessly beaten inside the 1/16 pole. He has gotten even better this year as, as noted earlier with Borgia, you can't hold the Arc against him which almost surely was run over the worst course of any major race in decades. I honestly don't see how anything in here could possibly beat him and don't even have a second choice. One other thing that is worth noting though is that Ben Cecil said after the Royal Anthem's race 3 back that he was obviously much better at 1 1/4 miles and he would never again run him a 1 1/2 miles, today's distance. Especially considering he will be overbet with the Mott/Bailey combo, how can you use him knowing that? Again, I can't.

BC CLASSIC - The post position draw influenced this race more than any big race in recent memory. Dickinson and Paupe both say their horses, breaking from posts 14 and 13, will be in front. That being said as well as obvious, there is going to be a severe traffic jam and/or other horses being over-rated going into the first turn. I am convinced that Behrens is the best horse but he only became a stalker and former frontrunner when Chavez got him to rate while outside in the clear. Chavez if the absolute master of position but how on earth can he get to an outside stalking position breaking from the 2 hole with all that speed on the outside and River Keen, who wants to be in the same place as Behrens, breaking directly to his outside? It is asking the impossible in both cases. Lemon Drop Kid is attracting a lot of support but simply won a couple races against the worst 3YO crop since at least 1982. Further, his trainer said Wednesday that he was glad he drew outside the speed. What? I, for one, can't bet on a horse trained by someone so out of touch with the patently obvious. General Challenge, in addition to being a hanger, can't negotiate his way through a big field and for him this will be the KY Derby revisited. With the possible exception of Catienus, BUDROYALE benefited the most from the draw. Gomez should be able to easily place him in his normal spot and he should be in the clear behind the speed up front. He is very likely to hit the front turning for home and is as game as they come (which many in here are not) and will be extremely hard to pass. I noted earlier that CATIENUS benefited the most from the draw because the race sets up for a deep closer and he is the only one. With the pace scenario he will get today, a likely head wind down the backstretch impeding the speed, and what should be a clear trip down the backstretch well behind the 2nd last horse, this horse actually should hit the board and will be a HUGE price. He is a couple lengths behind the fastest in here but all but BUDROYALE will likely experience unfavorable circumstances which prevent them from running their best races. If Catienus runs back to his best, he need not even improve off it to have a shot at winning this at a monster price. I checked 10 years of charts at Gulfstream and it is not speed favoring at this distance. If not for his well documented feet problems that occurred in the race, he would have been at least second last time in the JC Gold Cup as, in Tom Durkin's words, he "made up a huge amount of ground in the turn". If the feet hold together, I will be very surprised if he does not factor and I can't recall the last time I said that about a 60-1 shot.

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