US troop withdrawal
Topic: Politics
President George Bush has proposed bringing home up to 70,000 American troops from Asia and Europe.

"The world has changed a great deal and our posture must change with it," President Bush told a Veterans of Foreign Wars convention. The US needs "a more agile and more flexible force" to fight the "wars of the 21st century".

Some observers warn that the withdrawal may leave a power vacuum and create security problems in the affected regions. Others warn of the potential economic impact to the affected communities.

However, in a post-Cold War era, American troops are less needed to deter military aggression than ever before, with the possible exception of Korea, where North Korea continues to take a belligerent stance.

As for the economic impact, the host countries will have to start taking steps to mitigate the effects. The proposed withdrawal starts only in 2006 and will be phased over ten years.

The United States has little choice but to take this step. The cost of stationing large numbers of troops around the world is one that a deficit-ridden US government is no longer able to bear on a long-term basis.

In any case, the greatest threat to US security nowadays is not so much conventional warfare but terrorism. Terrorism requires a new mode of warfare. Ground troops stationed around the world on a permanent basis are of little value.

America has to divert its financial and military resources toward handling this new terrorist threat. Inevitably, some other objectives of lesser importance will have to be sacrificed.

As Tom Plate, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles, wrote in The Straits Times:

America's friends in Asia need to accept the inevitable and figure out ways to climb aboard. India and Japan have already seen that; other governments have been a bit slower on the uptake.

In the end, this military-transformation world is like globalisation itself: There is not too much you can do about it, even if you do not much like it.

Koguryo
Topic: Politics
The Straits Times reported today that a dispute has erupted between China and South Korea over the treatment of the ancient kingdom of Koguryo.

Koguryo was a kingdom that lasted between 37 BC and AD 668. At its peak, it spanned territories in both Korea and Manchuria. The latter is, of course, now part of China.

According to The Straits Times, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had carried out the North-east Asia Project to study the history of China's north-eastern regions. The study claimed that Koguryo was a Chinese vassal state and key to China's history. Korean academics, on the other hand, consider Koguryo an independent state that was often in conflict with China.

The current dispute began when, in April, the Chinese Foreign Ministry website deleted Koguryo from its introduction to Korean history. Then on Thursday, the ministry removed all of Korean history before 1948.

This led Professor Ahn Byung Woo of South Korea's Hanshin University to say to The Japan Times: "China's North-east Asia Project is not just about Koguryo, but aims at asserting its historical claims to Manchuria and even part of the Korean peninsula in case the region turns unstable."

Even North Korea, long-time ally of China, accused the latter of "manipulating history for its own interest". Its state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun said that the Chinese claim on Koguryo was like "stealing water from another man's rice paddy".

The problem lies in the fact that Koguryo was, to a large extent, a Manchurian state, not just a strictly Korean one. If Manchuria is considered a part of China, then it is only reasonable to suggest that the history of Koguryo is an important part of the history of China.

That, of course, does not justify implying that Koguryo is not also an important part of the history of Korea, or implying that Korea has no history before 1948.

Lee Hsien Loong's Taiwan visit unleashes storm from China
Topic: Politics
Singapore Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) and incoming prime minister Lee Hsien Loong's visit to Taiwan from 10-13 July provoked strong reactions from China.

On 11 July, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue expressed "strong dissatisfaction" with the visit and warned: "The Singaporean side should take full responsibility for what results from this event."

Soon after that, China cancelled People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's trip to Singapore, where he had been scheduled to deliver the keynote address at the Monetary Authority of Singapore's annual lecture on 14 July.

Following the angry reaction from Beijing, Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement that emphasised Singapore's support for the "One China" policy and its opposition to Taiwanese independence. It also emphasised that the trip is "a private and unofficial visit".

The Chinese government was unimpressed. Zhang retorted: "Mr Lee Hsien Loong has held senior positions in the Singaporean government for many years, so his capacity cannot be changed by a simple remark."

Speculation in Taiwanese media that Lee may be trying to play mediator in cross-strait relationship aggravated Beijing's unhappiness. "The Taiwan question is China's internal affair and we have never required or needed any countries or people to pass on messages across the strait," Zhang said.

In contrast, the Taiwanese side has been sensitive to Singapore's diplomatic predicament. By and large, Taiwanese government officials did not publicly play up the visit. When asked about his impression of Lee, Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Mark Chen said: "He is a handsome man."

Nevertheless, the importance of the visit to the Taiwanese government was not lost on the media. In a 13 July report, the Taipei Times reported: "Despite the low profile of the visit and the secrecy surrounding his schedule, the media nonetheless caught the pomp and ceremony extended by President Chen Shui-bian and members of his government to the young national leader."

The Taiwanese government also did not highlight any cross-strait mediation role for Lee. On 14 July, the Taipei Times quoted a senior Taiwanese government official as saying that "[DPM] Lee demonstrated caution when touching on cross-strait and diplomatic matters. He was most certainly not serving as a negotiator between [Taiwan and China] and did not deliver a message from Beijing," the official said.

Despite the stand of the Beijing government, the official media in China was relatively restrained in its reporting. Most reported the official stand without additional comment.

It was another matter with the unofficial media.

On 15 July, the International Herald Leader headlined a story: "Lee Hsien Loong's Taiwan visit broke the Lee Kuan Yew model of striking a balance on the Taiwan Strait." Mr He Liangliang, a Phoenix Satellite Television commentator, was quoted as chiding Mr Lee for visiting Beijing in May, then making a trip to Taiwan two months later despite China's protestations.

On a CCTV4 programme that night, Professor Tao Wenzhao, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that DPM Lee had gone overboard in trying to secure benefits for Singapore by exploiting the cross-strait situation. "The visit is absolutely unacceptable," he said.

The comments by Yan Xuetong, director of the International Relations Research Institute at Tsinghua University, probably takes the cake.

Yan wrote on Xinhuanet.com: "By taking along his defence minister on his visit, DPM Lee showed blatant support for Taiwanese independence forces. If this visit did not cause great damage to Singapore's national interests, DPM Lee will increase his support for Taiwanese independence after he takes power, in order to use it as a bargaining chip with China."

The point about the defence minister accompanying Lee on the visit is factually incorrect, as clarified by the Singapore government.

The point about Lee supporting Taiwanese independence is also unsubstantiated by the facts. Apart from the government's clearly-expressed "One China" policy, the visit itself is also not exceptional when put in the perspective of the close economic and military relations that Singapore has maintained with Taiwan since Kuomintang days, well before President Lee Teng-hui started publicly suggesting Taiwanese independence.

While it is obviously not in China's interests to encourage other countries to build up their relations with Taiwan, it is clearly in China's interests to maintain a rational approach to the issue. Otherwise, it risks lowering its international stature and credibility as a trustworthy player in the international arena.

Bird flu is back
Topic: Health
It looks like the bird flu is back.

Thailand has confirmed that 7,000 of 44,000 chickens in Ayutthaya had died in the last fortnight from the H5N1 strain of the bird flu. The surviving chickens have been culled.

On Tuesday, China had announced a new outbreak of bird flu after tests at a farm in the southeastern province of Anhui confirmed that chickens had died of bird flu. In March, China had declared it had defeated the disease after killing 9 million chickens and other poultry.

Bird flu has also appeared in Vietnam over the last three months.

In the earlier outbreak early this year, the disease ravaged flocks throughout Asia. It also spread from birds to humans, killing 16 people in Vietnam and eight in Thailand. About 100 million chickens across the region were slaughtered to halt its spread.

"It's not surprising that it has come back," said Roy Wadia of the World Health Organization in Beijing. "It stays in the environment a long time."

In April, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -- or more commonly known as SARS -- threatened a similar comeback, making a re-appearance in China and causing one death. Fortunately, it was quickly contained again.

No doubt, health authorities in Asia have become better at controlling such outbreaks. Hopefully the latest bird flu outbreak is also quickly brought under control.

Malaysia scraps rule on women visitors from China
Topic: Politics
On 30 June, the Malaysian government announced that it was scrapping a rule that required young female visitors from China to be accompanied by either their husbands or fathers when visiting the country.

Earlier last month, the Immigration Department had issued a circular imposing these conditions on women aged between 18 and 25 wanting to visit Malaysia. It also required them to produce documents to prove that they were tourists.

The rule had been implemented to address rising concerns about young women from China entering Malaysia as tourists and staying to work as prostitutes instead. Statistics compiled by the Malaysian police show that last year, 1,971 women from China had been detained for overstaying. In the first four months of this year, 654 women from China were arrested.

It is a problem that is not unique to Malaysia. Hong Kong and Singapore have also reported similar problems with Chinese women working as prostitutes.

The reason for the rescission of the rule is not clear at the moment. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry had recently issued a travel advisory warning its citizens about snatch thefts in Malaysia.

Coincidence? Hard to say. It would not have surprised me, though, if it had been a calculated tit-for-tat measure by Beijing against Malaysia.

Malaysia's rule on Chinese women visitors seems to me to be so obviously politically insensitive that I wonder why the Malaysian authorities even passed it in the first place if it were at all interested in keeping good relations with Beijing.

Taiwan and China making war plans
Topic: Politics
Things appear to be heating up across the Taiwan Straits.

"The United States has nudged Taiwan to beef up its defence capabilities, hinting at a possible sale of Aegis-equipped destroyers to the island amid a perceived growing threat from rival China," The Straits Times reported today.

According to the report, Admiral Thomas Boulton Fargo, commander of the US Pacific Command, told a visiting group of Taiwanese parliamentarians in Hawaii that "he was worried about China's speedy military modernisation". However, he said it was up to Taiwan to decide whether or not it wanted to boost its defence capabilities.

CNN had reported yesterday that China's generals are stepping up efforts to seek approval from the Chinese Communist Party leadership for more funds and speed up the reunification process with Taiwan, including the possible use of military force.

And earlier media reports had indicated that US defence planners are speculating that, in the event of a war across the strait, Taiwan may try to hit high-value targets like the Three Gorges Dam as a way of deterring a Chinese invasion.

The US government has a one-China policy mainly to placate Beijing and hopefully avoid a war across the Taiwan Straits. Unfortunately, this policy is a double-edged sword. It also gives Beijing an excuse to go to war to assert its claim on Taiwan.

Furthermore, the US continues to arm Taiwan. This gives the pro-independence government in Taipei hope that the US will help in case of a conflict with China and encourages it to be bolder and more antagonistic toward the latter.

All these elements only increase the probability of a conflict between China and Taiwan. War may not be inevitable yet, but all parties involved should start taking measures to reduce the tension and not allow matters to deteriorate further.

Ronald Reagan: Death and legacy
Topic: Politics
Ronald Reagan, the former president of the United States, died on 5 June 2004 at the age of 93 after a 10-year battle with Alzheimer's disease. He was buried yesterday in Simi Valley, California.

The whole funeral ceremony had begun earlier in the day at Washington's National Cathedral, where leaders, both current and former, from the US and the rest of the world, read eulogies on the former president. President George Bush declared that Reagan was "an enduring symbol of our country".

After that, a presidential jet flew the casket to California, where a motorcade brought it to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. There, at a service attended by about 720 of Reagan's family and friends, the body of Ronald Reagan was laid to rest.

Reagan served two terms as president of the United States. Early in his presidency, in 1981, an attempt was made to assassinate him. The attempt failed, and Reagan went on to make his mark on the US and the world.

During his presidency, inflation, which had raged throughout the 1970s, was finally tamed, with more than a little help from Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker's high-interest-rate policy. Reagan introduced tax cuts and legislation to deregulate the economy. By the end of his administration, the US had enjoyed its longest recorded period of peacetime expansion up to then.

By increasing defence spending, Reagan has been widely credited for winning the Cold War for the US. The pressure of keeping up with the US militarily proved too much for the Soviet Union, and contributed to its eventual collapse.

However, the defence expenditures also exacted a toll on the US. Throughout his presidency, the US government suffered budget deficits. The national debt doubled in real terms from US$1 billion in 1981 to US$2 billion in 1989 (figures based on 1987 dollars). The debt increased from 27 percent of gross domestic product to 42 percent.

Nevertheless, Reagan's achievements were widely acknowledged and he remained highly popular throughout his presidency. At the end of his presidency, in his farewell address to the nation, he was able to declare:

We've done our part. And as I walk off into the city streets, a final word to the men and women of the Reagan revolution, the men and women across America who for 8 years did the work that brought America back. My friends: We did it. We weren't just marking time. We made a difference. We made the city stronger, we made the city freer, and we left her in good hands. All in all, not bad, not bad at all.

Brazilian president has ambitious trade plans
Topic: Business
Last June, Brazil, India and South Africa had formed the G3 to boost trade and combine their political muscle in world forums like the United Nations. Now, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil thinks the group can be expanded.

"We dream that in the near future it will be a G5, which will be with Russia and China," President da Silva told reporters on 27 May during his trip to China. "We want to build a political force capable of convincing rich nations...they can ease their protectionist policies and give access to the so-called developing world."

The United States, however, is unimpressed.

"We need to focus on the substance [of talks], not what the gamesmanship is," US Commerce undersecretary Grant Aldonas told reporters in Brazil's Congress when he was asked for his opinion of President da Silva's proposal. "Whatever the grouping is that's not that much of a concern."

Even if the G5 proposal does not make any headway, President da Silva's visit to China may already have. His delegation of eight cabinet ministers, six state governors and 450 business leaders has already sealed a number of commercial agreements. These include US$5 billion worth of deals for Brazil's CVRD group, the world's largest iron ore exporter, and an accord that will see Brazilian and Chinese oil companies working together in South Asia, Iran and South America.

As it is, Brazil and China -- the two biggest economies in the developing world -- have already seen trade between the two nations grow five-fold between 2000 and 2003 to a value of US$8billion.

Sikh to become prime minister of India
Topic: Politics
So, Sonia Gandhi will not become prime minister of India after all. The appointment will instead go to Dr Manmohan Singh.

The possibility of a foreign-born woman becoming prime minister -- Sonia Gandhi had been born in Italy -- had aroused considerable protest throughout India even though she is popular among her Congress party supporters.

Dr Singh is the architect of India's economic reforms, and the business community is likely to react favourably to his appointment as prime minister. Yesterday, the day he was named as the next prime minister, the Mumbai Sensex stock index rose 129 points to 5,006.

Dr Singh will become India's first Sikh prime minister.

Return of the Gandhi dynasty?
Topic: Politics
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP-led coalition has been ousted from power by the opposition Congress party led by Sonia Gandhi. Congress and its allies won 279 seats, a majority of the 545-seat Parliament. Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies had 187.

Analysts attribute the Congress victory to discontent among poor rural voters who felt left behind by the economic reforms championed by outgoing Prime Minster Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

The Italian-born Gandhi looks set to be India's next prime minister. This means that the Gandhi family, the ruling dynasty of India for much of its post-colonial history, is set to return to power.