London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine                                                                 

Health Care situation in  Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

 

 

HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.

 

The statistical data shows the HIV Epidemic development in Ukraine. In the official UNAIDS announcement it was marked "…. Ukraine is the center of infection in the Eastern Europe…. and the  registered figures are only the top of the iceberg".

Today HIV/AIDS cases are reported in all administrative areas of Ukraine with 100 times difference between the first and the last.

 

 

HIV- positive cases officially registered in the Ukraine

 

 

Regions

1987-1999(9 m)

 

Donetsk obl.

6489

 

Dnepropetrovsk obl.

6006

Odessa obl.

4796

Nikolaev obl.

2050

 

AR Crimea

1820

Kyiv city

1021

 

Zaporizie obl.

863

Kharkiv obl.

858

Poltava obl.

705

Cherkasy obl.

700

Lugansk obl.

681

Khmelnitsky obl.

385

 

Sevasyopol obl.

385

Kherson obl.

382

Volin obl.

260

 

Gitomir obl.

243

Kyiv city

239

Chernovitsy obl.

237

Vinnitsa obl.

215

Lviv obl.

214

Chernigiv obl.

210

Summi obl.

133

 

Kirovograd obl.

104

Ternopil obl.

104

Zakarpatskaya obl.

77

 

Iv-Frankovskaya obl.

75

Rivne obl.

65

Total

29317

 

 

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine                                                                 

Health Care situation in  Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

 

 

HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.

 

The principle change was connected with the outbreak of HIV infection among the drug users started in the Southern region and then involving all Ukraine.

 

Drug users registered in Ukraine (Inf.Bul.No 16, Kyiv)

 

Regions

1998

(9m.)

%

1999

(9m.)

%

1994-99

(9)*

%

AR Crimea

168

50.45

142

57.48

1221

68.01

Vinitsa obl.

l42

85.70

31

72.10

161

77.00

Volin obl.

36

94.70

10

50.00

232

89.20

Dnepropetrovsk obl.

1423

85.40

684

71.10

5187

86.42

Donetsk obl.

996

67.70

667

63.95

4810

74.50

Gitomir obl.

36

87.80

28

65.11

205

85.01

Zakarpatskaya obl.

14

73.60

5

38.46

48

62.30

Zaporigie obl.

168

67.74

73

70.87

729

85.01

Iv.-Frankovsk obl.

12

92.30

8

44.44

54

72.96

Kyiv obl.

38

74.50

40

83.33

183

62.45

Kirovograd obl.

18

51.40

11

45.83

56

54.90

Lugansk obl.

140

82.80

55

67.00

555

81.60

Lviv obl.

49

89.00

47

92.15

176

84.60

Nikolaev obl

365

82.00

201

73.35

1590

77.60

Odessa obl.

308

56.10

355

47.65

2972

62.60

Poltava obl.

202

89.30

122

82.99

607

87.70

Rivne obl.

10

58.80

4

100

47

72.30

Summy obl.

39

79.60

32

80.00

100

75.76

Ternopil obl.

34

87.20

10

90.90

88

84.60

Kharkiv obl.

225

74.00

58

60.41

585

71.20

Kherson obl.

58

75.30

25

51.02

302

79.30

Khmelnitsky obl.

124

74.25

72

65.45

282

73.20

Cherkassy obl.

86

86.80

76

80.00

584

84.00

Chernigiv obl.

45

90.00

14

77.77

189

90.00

Chernovitskaya obl.

25

65.80

19

63.33

187

80.25

Kyiv city

180

92.70

82

89.13

806

86.00

Sevastopil city

115

92.00

51

78.46

319

83.00

Total

4956

77.80

2922

65.32

22275

76.70

 

* – up to1994 ã. HIV-positive drug users were not registered.  

 

 

London Summer Seminar 2000/Ukraine                                                                 

Health Care situation in  Ukraine and Odessa area.

Ukrainian National Academy of Science. Institute of Market problem and Economic-Ecological Research.

 

 

HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.

 

According to the prognosis of the Ukrainian specialists which was formed on the basis of the present situation by the end of 2000 we will have 100 000 HIV positive citizens of Ukraine. 

 

According the opinion of the WHO experts we should multiply this figure at least 5 times (500 000).

 

The group of the international experts developed the short and long-term of HIV/AIDS epidemic development in Ukraine.

 

According to the executed estimation two options are possible:

 

"Slow HIV/AIDS" - the variation of  development similar to the situation in Western Europe  where distribution occurs in very closed and separate group of drug users without significant involving of the heterosexual ordinary population.

 

"Fast HIV/AIDS" - the variant of development similar to the South East Asia and Brazil, where development of epidemic occurs among the most heterosexual population. In the case of the "Fast HIV/AIDS epidemic development" we will have the loses as follows:

 

By 2010 the total number of HIV-infected can come up to 1,4 million with the number of new cases per year:

2001 - (20 000 - 24 000)

2006 - (61 000 - 111 000)

2011 - (65 000 - 175 000)

2016 - (40 000 - 155 000).

 

The number of death cases caused by HIV/AIDS epidemic will make:

2001 - (12 000 - 13 000)

2006 - (55 000 - 92 000)

2011 - (67 000 - 169 000)

2016 - (45 000 - 163 000).

 

 

The total number of deaths caused by HIV/Aids

will  make 0,8 - 1,9 million in 2016.