HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine.

The statistical data shows the HIV Epidemic development in Ukraine. In the official UNAIDS announcement it was marked "…. Ukraine is the center of infection in the Eastern Europe…. and the registered figures are only the top of the iceberg".

Even in 1995 WHO carried Ukraine to the countries with the low HIV/AIDS rates. But this year the prompt growth of HIV especially in drug users (75%-80% of the total registered cases) began. Now according to the results of the Ukraine HIV/AIDS. Prevention Center (Ukrainian Ministry of Health) examination up to the October 1999 - 29317 there were HIV positive cases were registered.

Today HIV/AIDS cases are reported in all administrative areas of Ukraine with 100 times difference between the first and the last.

HIV- positive officially registered in the Ukraine

Regions	1987-1999(9 m)
Donetsk obl.	6489
Dnepropetrovsk obl.	6006
Odessa obl.	4796
Nikolaev obl.	2050
AR Crimea	1820
Kyiv city	1021
Zaporizie obl.	863
Kharkiv obl.	858
Poltava obl.	705
Cherkasy obl.	700
Lugansk obl.	681
Khmelnitsky obl.	385
Sevasyopol obl.	385
Kherson obl.	382
Volin obl.	260
Gitomir obl.	243
Kyiv city	239
Chernovitsy obl.	237
Vinnitsa obl.	215
Lviv obl.	214
Chernigiv obl.	210
Summi obl.	133
Kirovograd obl.	104
Ternopil obl.	104
Zakarpatskaya obl.	77
Iv-Frankovskaya obl.	75
Rivne obl.	65
Total	29317

HIV – infected in the Ukraine by age and sex. (Inf. Bul. No11. Kyiv, 1998)

Age	1993		1994		1995		1996		1997
	m	f	m	f	m	f	m	f	m	f
0-1	1	-	-	-	8	1	54	38	91	105
2-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6-10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11-14	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	1	4	5
15-19	1	-	1	-	165	102	282	140	317	147
20-29	9	6	13	6	441	353	1991	685	2953	1251
30-39	11	3	3	2	269	69	1091	267	2945	804
40-49	7	-	5	-	47	26	633	101	228	32
50-59	2	-	1	-	4	2	75	38	26	5
60-69	-	-	-	-	1	-	3	-	5	-
Всего	31	9	23	8	936	554	4130	1270	6569	2344

For the different areas there were no specific signes before 1995. As for example among the most significant groups for Odessa area they were the sexual contacts especially with the HIV positive foreigners (Uganda, Ethiopia, Congo, Burundi, Tanzania).

Since 1987 every year from 1 to 3 new groups appear among tested influencing the epidemic process.

But the principle change was connected with the outbreak of HIV infection among the drug users started in the Southern region and then involving all Ukraine.

Drug users registered in Ukraine (Inf.Bul.No 16, Kyiv)

Regions	1998 (9m.)	%	1999 (9m.)	%	1994-99 (9)^*	%
AR Crimea	168	50.45	142	57.48	1221	68.01
Vinitsa obl.	l42	85.70	31	72.10	161	77.00
Volin obl.	36	94.70	10	50.00	232	89.20
Dnepropetrovsk obl.	1423	85.40	684	71.10	5187	86.42
Donetsk obl.	996	67.70	667	63.95	4810	74.50
Gitomir obl.	36	87.80	28	65.11	205	85.01
Zakarpatskaya obl.	14	73.60	5	38.46	48	62.30
Zaporigie obl.	168	67.74	73	70.87	729	85.01
Iv.-Frankovsk obl.	12	92.30	8	44.44	54	72.96
Kyiv obl.	38	74.50	40	83.33	183	62.45
Kirovograd obl.	18	51.40	11	45.83	56	54.90
Lugansk obl.	140	82.80	55	67.00	555	81.60
Lviv obl.	49	89.00	47	92.15	176	84.60
Nikolaev obl	365	82.00	201	73.35	1590	77.60
Odessa obl.	308	56.10	355	47.65	2972	62.60
Poltava obl.	202	89.30	122	82.99	607	87.70
Rivne obl.	10	58.80	4	100	47	72.30
Summy obl.	39	79.60	32	80.00	100	75.76
Ternopil obl.	34	87.20	10	90.90	88	84.60
Kharkiv obl.	225	74.00	58	60.41	585	71.20
Kherson obl.	58	75.30	25	51.02	302	79.30
Khmelnitsky obl.	124	74.25	72	65.45	282	73.20
Cherkassy obl.	86	86.80	76	80.00	584	84.00
Chernigiv obl.	45	90.00	14	77.77	189	90.00
Chernovitskaya obl.	25	65.80	19	63.33	187	80.25
Kyiv city	180	92.70	82	89.13	806	86.00
Sevastopil city	115	92.00	51	78.46	319	83.00
Total	4956	77.80	2922	65.32	22275	76.70

* – up to1994 г. HIV-positive drug users were not registered.

Every year the rates have been rising up to 20% and more not only in big cities but also in towns and even villages.

According to the prognosis of the Ukrainian specialists which was formed on the basis of the present situation by the end of 2000 we will have 100 000 HIV positive citizens of Ukraine. According the opinion of the WHO experts we should multiply this figure at least 5 times (500 000).

The group of the international experts developed the short and long-term of HIV/AIDS epidemic development in Ukraine.

According to the executed estimation two options are possible:

"Slow HIV/AIDS" - the variation of development similar to the situation in Western Europe where distribution occurs in very closed and separate group of drug users without significant involving of the heterosexual ordinary population.

"Fast HIV/AIDS" - the variant of development similar to the South East Asia and Brazil, where development of epidemic occurs among the most heterosexual population. In the case of the "Fast HIV/AIDS epidemic development" we will have the loses as follows:

By 2010 the total number of HIV-infected can come up to 1,4 million with the number of new cases per year:

2001 - (20 000 - 24 000)

2006 - (61 000 - 111 000)

2011 - (65 000 - 175 000)

2016 - (40 000 - 155 000).

The number of death cases caused by HIV/AIDS epidemic will make:

2001 - (12 000 - 13 000)

2006 - (55 000 - 92 000)

2011 - (67 000 - 169 000)

2016 - (45 000 - 163 000).

The total number of deaths caused by HIV/Aids will make 0,8 - 1,9 million in 2016.

For all medical, economical, ethical, demographical reasons we need to do everything to stop the "Fast HIV/AIDS model" epidemic development. In order to accomplish that it's necessary to collaborate at different national levels involving State and NGOs, ordinary population, professionals and Mass media as well as to use the best international examples and experiences.