Al Qaeda's declining ambitions.
I've said for about three years that Osama bin Laden is dead, so on Friday it was somewhat of a surprise to hear that he had released a videotape mentioning presidential candidate John Kerry. I've since wondered whether a look-a-like was used to make the video and whether old voice recordings could have been used for the sound. But whatever the case, I'm sure that it comes from Al Qaeda and that's what matters most.

I find this latest message very interesting and believe it shows that Al Qaeda is being beaten into submission. That's not something that comes over from reports of the atrocities it commits in Iraq, but an examination of the tone and content of the tape bears this out. To demonstrate this, I will compare the recent message with previous ones both alleged to have come from him.

In bin Laden's 1996 declaration of war against the United States,

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/terrorism/international/fatwa_1996.html

he speaks of Arab youth being willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Americans: "Those youths know that the reward in fighting you, the USA, is double than the reward in fighting someone not from the People of the Book. They have no intention except to enter paradise by killing you. An infidel, an enemy of God like you, cannot be in the same heaven with his righteous executioner."

and later says of his fanatics:

"Those youth are different from your soldiers. Your problem will be how to convince your troops to fight, while our problem will be how to restrain our youth to wait for their turn in fighting and in operations. These youths are commendable and praiseworthy."

The clear assumption was that Americans wouldn't fight back against Al Qaeda aggression. That was understandable, given the US withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975, the withdrawal from Beirut after the Marine Barracks bombing of 1982 and the withdrawal from Somalia after a small number of US soldiers were killed on a humanitarian mission and one dead American pilot was dragged through the streets of Mogadishu.

Of this, bin Laden comments:

"You had been disgraced by Allah and you withdrew; the extent of your impotence and weaknesses became very clear. It was a pleasure for the heart of every Muslim and a remedy to the chests of believing nations to see you defeated in the three Islamic cities of Beirut, Aden, and Mogadishu.

Over six years later, in November 2002, another letter appeared from bin Laden, addressed to the American people:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/worldview/story/0,11581,845725,00.html

In it he answers two questions:

Q1) Why are we fighting and opposing you?
Q2) What are we calling you to, and what do we want from you?

The answer to question 1 is the predictable list of grievances. But in answering question 2, he goes further in telling Americans how to live their lives. The list is long, so I shall only include highlights:

"The first thing that we are calling you to is Islam .. The second thing we call you to, is to stop your oppression, lies, immorality and debauchery that has spread among you .. We call you to be a people of manners, principles, honour, and purity; to reject the immoral acts of fornication, homosexuality, intoxicants, gambling's, and trading with interest ..

You are the nation who, rather than ruling by the Shariah of Allah in its Constitution and Laws, choose to invent your own laws as you will and desire. You separate religion from your policies, contradicting the pure nature which affirms Absolute Authority to the Lord and your Creator.

You are a nation that permits gambling in its all forms. The companies practice this as well, resulting in the investments becoming active and the criminals becoming rich ..

If you fail to respond to all these conditions, then prepare for fight with the Islamic Nation."

And now it's 2004 and bin Laden appears just before the US election and his message is rather more muted than before. He says:

"Do not play with our security, and spontaneously you will secure yourself."

What?

That's it? "Leave us alone and we'll leave you alone"? What happened the youths who "have no intention except to enter paradise by killing you."

What happened to your threats of further harm if we didn't end gambling and homosexuality? Why the loss of confidence?

There are a few clues. As this new story reports:

'U.S. officials told NBC News that in parts of the tape not aired by Al-Jazeera, bin Laden acknowledges that the recent Afghan elections were not a success for him because "they came off with minimal violence." And he admits that "aggressive Pakistani operations" in South Waziristan, where he is believed to be hiding, have hurt his operations.'

I'm not an expert in military affairs, but I'd wager that Al Qaeda knows that it's losing. It has failed to take back Afghanistan, where Anthony Loyd in the Times of September 13th reports:

`in Afghanistan, the insurgency is failing and failing badly .. it is the Taleban and their Al Qaeda comrades who find themselves isolated and pressured. In a country awash with weapons and populated by a skilled guerrilla force, the insurgents have failed to ignite resistance to the 18,000 American troops there'.

Al Qaeda supporters are now holed up in Fallujah, where the US Army is about to mount a concerted assault. Their future looks bleak unless they can cut off the army's supply lines and the way to do that is to change the Commander-in-Chief. Rashly they issue this latest broadcast, hoping that Americans will opt for the easy life and select Kerry. It's their only chance.

Al Qaeda's own words reveal that we are poised to win against them if we hold firm. Tomorrow, I will show what Al Qaeda has to say about the situation in Iraq and why their own words reveal the correctness of Bush's approach to the Middle East.