Action or Judgement?
Topic: Poker
Dominic wrote to me recently:

"I thought Big Dave D's blog was quite interesting today. The gist of it is that he has been trying No Limit Hold Em recently, and doesn't like it because it requires judgement. I remember Xxxx Xxxxx telling me pretty much the same thing. Yet there will still be punters who play Omaha because they consider it a 'gambling' game."

I never bought into the idea that omaha was the 'action game'. I certainly never accepted that there was as much mental action involved. I don't mind playing it for a few hours and I think it can make an interesting tournament game, but I find cash omaha boring compared to cash hold'em. For a start you don't get anywhere near as many hands per hour.

There was a long period in this country when you couldn't get a hold'em cash game anywhere and you had to play omaha. I thought it created something I called 'lazy professional syndrome'. If you knew that a king-high flush draw was no good, that an 8-card straight draw was not a wrap and that small trips were often worthless then you could beat up those who didn't. You didn't have to try too hard to put people on hands or project much of an image.

Omaha games at the Vic now resemble those 7-card games of years ago. The average age at the table is nearly double that of the hold'em games. Most people look miserable most of the time. There is very little banter.

Two cards good. Four cards bad.

Best comment I've read about Iraq for a long time.
Topic: Politics
Hat tip to Omar at Iraq the Model for this comment by Joseph Liebermann:

Note that this is a man who stood as Vice-President against Bush and Cheney in the 2000 election.

Key quote:

"I have just returned from my fourth trip to Iraq in the past 17 months and can report real progress there. More work needs to be done, of course, but the Iraqi people are in reach of a watershed transformation from the primitive, killing tyranny of Saddam to modern, self-governing, self-securing nationhood--unless the great American military that has given them and us this unexpected opportunity is prematurely withdrawn.

Progress is visible and practical. In the Kurdish North, there is continuing security and growing prosperity. The primarily Shiite South remains largely free of terrorism, receives much more electric power and other public services than it did under Saddam, and is experiencing greater economic activity. The Sunni triangle, geographically defined by Baghdad to the east, Tikrit to the north and Ramadi to the west, is where most of the terrorist enemy attacks occur. And yet here, too, there is progress.

There are many more cars on the streets, satellite television dishes on the roofs, and literally millions more cell phones in Iraqi hands than before. All of that says the Iraqi economy is growing. And Sunni candidates are actively campaigning for seats in the National Assembly. People are working their way toward a functioning society and economy in the midst of a very brutal, inhumane, sustained terrorist war against the civilian population and the Iraqi and American military there to protect it.

It is a war between 27 million and 10,000; 27 million Iraqis who want to live lives of freedom, opportunity and prosperity and roughly 10,000 terrorists who are either Saddam revanchists, Iraqi Islamic extremists or al Qaeda foreign fighters who know their wretched causes will be set back if Iraq becomes free and modern. The terrorists are intent on stopping this by instigating a civil war to produce the chaos that will allow Iraq to replace Afghanistan as the base for their fanatical war-making. We are fighting on the side of the 27 million because the outcome of this war is critically important to the security and freedom of America.

If the terrorists win, they will be emboldened to strike us directly again and to further undermine the growing stability and progress in the Middle East, which has long been a major American national and economic security priority.

The Western Club opens for business.
Topic: Poker
I went to play at the Western Club on Saturday. The occasion was a #200 NL Hold'em Competition to which the club was adding #5,000. Although I didn't make the money I did enjoy the experience, because the club is something that I've wanted to see in this country for some time: a non-casino poker club based OUT OF TOWN with its own car park.

Tournament director for the day was Roy Houghton, the first TD I ever met (in 1995!):

Corner view.
Topic: Poker


The club itself is spacious and well appointed.

Long view.
Topic: Poker


Keep in mind that this is just one floor! There's another floor above this one which is almost as big and there's also a Kalooki room, which can be used for poker if required.

I've talked to one of the partners in the business and was pleasantly surprised to hear him agree that limit games would be the best way to increase the market. How to achieve the critical mass for this will be the hard part. He agreed with me that creating a new player base is essential, as both Gutshot and the Victoria have their own loyal player base who are unlikely to switch for social reasons, as well as convenience.

Let's wish them well with this new venture.

Link changes.
Topic: Poker
I've made a couple of changes to the Poker links on the left hand side. I've taken out Poker Bastard, due to the infrequency of his posts and replaced him with the prolific Peter Birks. The latter doesn't just write about poker, he also writes about finance and game theory. Personally I find his non-poker stuff a million times more interesting, but that's just me.

Horse racing fans might be interested to know that my friend Dominic Bourke is posting again.

Broken news, Property Ladder and Dispatches.
Topic: Television
Caught a new show on Monday night called 'Broken News'. I highly recommend it. It consists of a series of spoof news programmes and the effect is to create the feeling that you're surfing through all the rolling news channels on digital television. It was utterly hilarious throughout. I hope that it stays this good.

I also watched Property Ladder. The show itself is made quite well, but I despise the very concept of a 'property ladder': the idea that everyone can get rich by developing properties. Perhaps that's because I missed out on the great boom from the mid 90s to a few years ago. Am I the only person who watches the show hoping to see people go broke? The plethora of property development programmes on the box at the moment screams at me as a classic sign of a peak, rather like the moment when the elevator boy is giving you stock market tips. Many of the people on the show go over budget and still make money because they have blundered into a rising market. This can't go on, surely?

Indeed, has it already stopped? I recently went to a charity dinner and was seated next to a letting agent. She told me that she was having to turn away many people who'd bought and tidied up something to let and were desperate for her to find a tenant to cover the outlay. When she confronted them with the harsh reality that the market wouldn't bear the sort of rents they expected, some would stamp their feet, scream and even cry. She blamed programmes like Property Ladder for creating unrealistic expectations.

Lastly I watched Peter Oborne's Dispatches documentary from Iraq. I will address this in a separate piece later this week. My inital feeling was that it lacked perspective.

Michael Arnold's Brave New World.
Topic: Poker
If you've played the cash games at the Victoria, you're bound to know who Michael Arnold is. Famed for his cries of 'One Seat Here' and his ability to fall asleep between hands (I'm not joking), he's one of the card room's most frequent and regular players. For most of the last two years he's played the 100 hold'em games, where he is a consistent winner. He has a style that works and he sticks to it.

Recently those of us who play with him have learned that he has a classification system for his opponents. He grades them as Group 1 (the top grade), Group 2 and Unclassified. It's caused some hilarity, with people saying things like 'That's a Group One bluff' and 'If Michael saw you call that, you'd get relegated'. To me, it's reminiscent of Huxley's Brave New World, where people are born in grades Alpha down to Epsilon.

What's more interesting is how he's put people into these groups. Some of his opinions on other players I agree with. Others are frankly barmy. For instance, there was a female player who appeared on the scene about a year ago, whom he declared to be the best woman player he'd ever seen. She's not been seen for a while. Something to do with the heavy losses she racked up I suppose. I know I was always keen to get into her games.

On another occasion, Michael became convinced that he had identified a new rising star: a young man I shall call 'J'. Whenever I saw 'J', he was playing like a lunatic, but Michael seemed sure that he was the next Cincinnati Kid and after losing a few pots to him he decided that he should consult Colin Kennedy about how to deal with this new threat. He arranged to meet Colin in the bar.

When Colin arrived, Michael outlined the problem:

'I need to formulate a counter-strategy to play against 'J', he explained.

Colin got straight to the point:

'Well you better hurry up before he goes skint'.

France kicks and screams.
Topic: Politics
A few months ago, I wrote a piece titled 'When is it time to forgive France?' in which I argued that France could serve a useful role as a warning to others when its 'social market model' collapsed.

I had no idea that the French were in such a rush to take me up on my suggestion though! For nine consecutive nights there has been rioting. Last night police made 250 arrests. Nine hundred cars, one school and two nurseries were burnt.

It doesn't help calm matters that the rioters are mostly muslims from North Africa. But whatever the effect of Islamism, the chief blame lies in the country's employment protection laws. By making it hard for companies to shed workers, they make it less likely that the unemployed get into the labour market in the first place.

Any French company considering its headcount budget has to take into consideration the difficulty of making people redundant if it later needs to. Therefore in order to avoid the risk of expensive overmanning, it must plan its recruitment targets on the basis of a worst-case scenario. This wouldn't happen in the UK, where companies would hire more people in the first place, knowing that they could lose them later if they had overestimated their personnel needs.

It's a classic case of unintended consequences. Laws that are supposed to protect workers end up preventing people from working in the first place. And who suffers the most from this? Mainly it's the North Africa immigrants who find it hard to get their first job. The high unemployment gives them time on their hands, as well as rage in their hearts. It's been a disaster waiting to happen.

I'm not sure that most people in the UK realise just how high unemployment in continental Europe is. It's been high in Spain, Germany and France for well over a decade. In some regions for two decades. In Britain, we all remember the high unemployment of the early Thatcher years. However awful that was for many, it was shortlived compared to the unemployment that Europe has experienced.

Now that the rioting has entered its second week and has spread to other cities, will the French wake up out of their slumber and make moves to reform their labour markets to get industry hiring again? One can only hope. But I fear that the French are too proud to admit that their 'social market' is in fact profoundly anti-social and has exacerbated ethnic tensions to breaking point.

Passive play
Topic: Poker
Below I attach a hand history of a pot I won today.

The reason I show it is that I think it illustrates one of the differences I encounter in online play, as compared to live play. I mean the tendancy of online players to bet highly marginal hands that would nearly always be checked in the games I play in the Vic or at the Gutshot club. I call it 'must-bet-something disease'. Look at that last bet of ?80. What hand is he beating? What inferior hand is going to call here?

It's partly because of betting like this that my style of play is more passive than most people's. I'm prepared to go into check and call mode far more readily than most people. It suits a culture in which aggressive play is considered a virtue.

I'm not saying that passive is always right or that aggressive is always wrong. Context determines everything. But I see a lot of advice telling people to play aggressively and not much telling people how to let the aggressors hang themselves. In particular, I hear people talking about wanting to 'win the pot there and then'. They are usually talking about winning the blinds by making big pre-flop raises in competition play with hands like TT, JJ, QQ. How, I wonder, do they expect to win competitions if all they get with these hands are the blinds?

Being passive isn't about being weak. In many ways it's as risky as being aggressive. Perhaps more so. You have to be able to determine whether the cheap cards you've given could have hurt you. I can't say I liked the club on the turn or the ten on the river. But I still felt right in calling. I think I got more action this way than betting aggressively.

Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 3,00/6,00 - Table "Torino"
Game ended 2005-11-02 16:41:38 GMT+01:00

Players:
bojjen (EUR 691,75 in seat 1)
hansom (EUR 790,45 in seat 2)
cleotrille (EUR 74,00 in seat 3)
falunerik (EUR 970,85 in seat 4)
snoop78 (EUR 117,65 in seat 5)
DavidYoung (EUR 485,48 in seat 6)

Dealer: falunerik
Small Blind: snoop78 (3,00)
Big Blind: DavidYoung (6,00)

DavidYoung was dealt: Ad - Jc

bojjen Fold
hansom Fold
cleotrille Call (6,00)
falunerik Raise (20,00)
snoop78 Fold
DavidYoung Call (14,00)
cleotrille Call (14,00)

Flop As - 2c - Ac

DavidYoung Check
cleotrille Check
falunerik Bet (32,00)
DavidYoung Call (32,00)
cleotrille Fold

Turn As - 2c - Ac - Qc

DavidYoung Check
falunerik Bet (65,00)
DavidYoung Call (65,00)

River As - 2c - Ac - Qc - Ts

DavidYoung Check
falunerik Bet (80,00)
DavidYoung Call (80,00)

falunerik shows: Ah - 9c (three of a kind, aces)
DavidYoung shows: Ad - Jc (three of a kind, aces)

DavidYoung wins: EUR 414,00 (with three of a kind, aces)
Rake: EUR 3,00

Dubious sales practices.
Topic: Misc.
I've been getting some phone calls from 0870 numbers on my mobile lately. Last week I answered one, only for the line to go dead. I was a bit suspicious, but dialled the number back to find out what was going on.

The phone was answered with 'Hello, mumbled word Telecom. Have you had a missed call?' After I answered yes she said: 'Can we just confirm that you are still an Orange customer and that your contract...?'

I said: 'I'm not having this conversation. Please delete this number from your database and don't call me again'.

Can you believe the nerve of these people? They want to do sales over the phone and they want YOU to pay for the call! Incredible.

I'm thinking of asking Orange to bar calls from 0870 numbers. But before I do, can anyone think of a legitimate reason why I might get a call from one?

Cameron v Davis
Topic: Politics
Just as it looked like David Cameron had managed to completely overshadow David Davis as prospective leader of the Conservative Party comes exposure of Cameron's unwillingness to state that he's never taken drugs. I asked a right-wing friend why this mattered and he replied:

It would mean that with him in charge the Tories couldn't run on a 'family values' platform.

We both agreed that this would be an excellent reason for picking him.

Unexpected bonus from Pokerstars.
Topic: Poker
This arrived in my e-mail inbox today:

Hello,

PokerStars has become aware of two players who were in violation of our poker room rules. Some time ago, you were involved in one or more hands with these players. You have received a credit as a result. To confirm your credit, log onto your PokerStars account, go to the 'Cashier' screen and click the 'History' button. Your share of the distribution will be shown as "Credit Purchase", followed by the amount of the credit.

I regret that we are not at liberty identify the specific games or players in question. Suffice to say that the players involved have been barred from the site and you will not encounter them again.

Likewise we will not go into detail regarding the method used to calculate your share of the funds distributed. I can say that it is based on the net amount won using unfair tactics combined with the number of hands you played at a table where unfair play was taking place.

The integrity of the games at PokerStars is of paramount importance to us and we will not abide unfair play in our games. We work hard to police our games to assure our players of a fair, secure place to play. In those rare cases where collusion has actually occurred, we make sure that any players affected are compensated appropriately. Our apologies for the delay in distributing compensation in this case.

Thank you for your continued play here on PokerStars. Please do not hesitate to let us know any time we can be of help.


Regards,

Two points worth noting:

1) I haven't played on Pokerstars for months.

2) The sum awarded was $125!

Highway robbery ... foiled!
Topic: Misc.
I got a parking ticket a few weeks ago for parking in a suspended bay. Of course, I had no idea that the bay was suspended at the time, and for good reason. My car was parked directly in front of a parking information pole that contained no warning about the suspension of parking in my bay. Nearby was another pole that did contain a warning. But as it was not the nearest one to my car at the time and because I didn't see it in any case, I was under the impression that it was OK to park where I did.

This picture illustrates the situation:



I was parked on the right of the tree, where you see the white car (it's not mine). Unlike the car in the picture, I was parked facing forwards, so when I got out, I could directly look up and see no special warnings on the pole nearest the space where I had parked. The warning was on the pole to the left of the tree, which is also set further back from the road.

I decided to send in a copy of this picture and mention that I was intending to appeal. This weekend I got a letter in the mail informing me:

"After carefully considering your case, and without prejudice to our position, we have decided to cancel this parking ticket (PCN).

But please note that the parking bays were properly suspended and sign(s) to that effect displayed on street giving at least seven days notice.

If you get another ticket for the same reason, I am afraid we may not be able to cancel it."

If you get a ticket that you feel has been applied unfairly, do what I did. Take pictures and send them in instead of payment. Let them know that you want to appeal. I'm told that 60 per cent of appeals succeed!

Something is wrong here.
Topic: Politics
Staff working at a jail ... have been advised against wearing St George's Cross tie-pins. A report into Wakefield Prison said the English national flag could be "misinterpreted" as a racist symbol.

I'm not a massive fan of the St George Cross, as I was born in Scotland (as were my mother and sister) and my Dad was born in Wales. However even I can see that this is utterly ridiculous. Our flags are not racist symbols and should be displayed with pride. A person who continually apologises for himself is never respected. The same goes for nations.