UMNO General
Assembly: Dr Mahathir Goes On The Defensive
by
M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my
However much
the Prime Minister denies it, this year's UMNO General Assembly is on the
defensive, Dr. Mahathir's presidential speech underlining it starkly against
continued worry about the "Anwar factor".
He devoted
an inordinately long part of his speech to it, and attacking PAS, to suggest
that both have eaten into its traditional Malay heartland. He cleverly
diverted the import of his remarks to an alleged "surprise" announcement,
which he later modified to suggest that the surprise announcement is that
there is no surprice. But the theme of the Assembly is to spout hellfire
and brimstone at foreigners who back the former UMNO deputy president,
Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, now serving a six-year jail sentence in Sungei
Buloh prison.
His speech,
as UMNO presidential speeches go, was ho-hum. Nothing new, nothing
shocking, nothing brilliant, a restatement of his previous speeches, with
special emphasis on what his protege did and does to destroy the nation.
That this UMNO general assembly harps on this underlies its insecurity,
even if no one believes UMNO and the National Front is about to learn how
to behave as opposition members in the next Dewan Rakyat. It could
even get its two-thirds majority, but the Malay cultural ground certainly
does look for an alternative to represent its interests. In the absence
of one, UMNO would remain. The Malay cultural heartland is conservative,
and while the Anwar factor has damaged that linkage, it would remain for
the moment.
UMNO lost the
public relations edge once again. Promising a surprise, and not producing
it, appears to be an attempt to keep the UMNO ground waiting for it.
The Prime Minister has -- at last --brought the Tengku Razaleigh faction
into the centre of the party: they can now be considered for posts
in the government and as candidates in the coming general elections.
The Tengku, like Dato' Seri Anwar, had independent support within UMNO,
and whose opposition has dogged and almost derailed the Prime Minister.
Numerous UMNO stalwarts told me yesterday that the Parti Keadilan Negara
factor would not impact upon UMNO, and that it would be a matter of time
before they returned to the fold. But the Tengku Razaleigh revolt
in 1987 was a revolt of a chief
who could easily
be contained. The Anwar revolt ignored the chiefs and went to the
Malay ground for support, and hence more serious. The Tengku represented
the second generation of UMNO leaders and Anwar the
third.
The Prime Minister wooed the second generation back into the fold, but
the Anwar supporters, with a view of UMNO as a political party and not
a movement, is less amenable to blandishments that their elders
would heartily
accept. Dr Mahathir's hurt comment that he, and not Anwar, is the
victim of a conspiracy unfortunately remains unbelievable to most.
And he understands only too well he needs the Tengku Razaleigh
crowd to protect
him from the Anwar crowd.
Dr Mahathir's
predicament stems from a widely held view within the Malay community that
his days as feudal overlord are numbered. It is no more the mechanics
of what Anwar did or did not do that is at stake. He
tries hard
to paint Anwar as the man who should be excoriated, but this fall on deaf
ears. Whether Anwar is guilty or not is no more the issue; he probably
is fatally damaged, the movement he initiated takes a life of its own,
challenging the government from a different premise. No one seriously
believes that Anwar would not be convicted of the present charges, whatever
mistakes the prosecution makes and continues to make which, in neutral
eyes, inhibits a fair trial. Dr Mahathir's praise for the soundness
of Malaysia's judicial system is neither here nor there.
He cannot plead
ignorance at the black eye his Inspector-General of Police inflicted on
his recently dismissed deputy prime minister: he was minister for
home affairs, and he takes full responsibility for what happened, whether
he knew of it or not. As one high commissioner of a foreign country
told me last night: "I delegate my authority but not responsibility."
And in the official attempt to demonize Dato' Seri Anwar, it is Anwar that
has the edge. The black eye Tan Sri Rahim Noor dealt him placed Dr
Mahathir and his administration on the defensive, locally and overseas;
forced him to leave the home ministry, forced him to appoint a commission
of inquiry, forced him to charge Tan Sri Rahim. Even UMNO members remain
queasy at what happened.
This UMNO General
Assembly is Dr Mahathir's first in which he is on the defensive.
Every action of his is framed within an uncertainty on how the Anwar faction
would react. Releasing a second list of Anwar's
cronies would
be of no relevance unless a list of the government cronies and the prime
minister's children list of what they got is also included; otherwise,
this is a continuation of the exercise to damn the deputy who dared challenge
him. It must gall him that there is not the steady stream of Keadilan
members who cross over to UMNO convinced of Keadilan's unscrupulousness
and lack of commitment to the Malay race. Instead, the last I heard is
that at least 38 MPs and state assemblymen in UMNO may or may not cross
over to Keadilan, with another 18 doubtful; denying them seats in the coming
general elections could well force them to challenge UMNO candidates.
The importance of the Anwar revolt is that it struck right into the centre
of UMNO but not by attacking it -- as Tengku Razaleigh did -- but by getting
the Malay heartland to revolt. In many ways, UMNO remains as solid in its
commitment to the Malay heartland as it always has been. But the
heartland itself has its perception that UMNO under Dr Mahathir is not
as committed to their interests as it once was. This accounts for
the unusual space provided in the UMNO president's speech to destroy Anwar
and PAS. The euphoria that marked previous assemblies was much devalued
this year. The UMNO delegate this year puts on a brave front of renewed
unity amidsts fears this could well be wishful thinking. The ground
is fractured, but the Mahathir speech yesterday underscored the cracks
papered over for the impending general elections, likely within two months,
than an attempt to resolve the underlying fundamental differences with
the Malay cultural community. The uncertainty cann only continue,
even with a two-thirds majority.
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