border patrol has a press conference where they brag what a great job they are doing. despite the fact that their isnt any evidence that they are doing a great job. thats government - when they are not stealing your money they tell you they are spending the money that they stole from you wisely Original Article Border Patrol's 'progress' unclear Susan Carroll and Billy House The Arizona Republic Sept. 23, 2005 12:00 AM Top U.S. Border Patrol officials say they've gained greater "operational control" along the Southwestern border, even as the number of arrests of undocumented immigrants has remained virtually unchanged in the past year and the death toll has broken all records. At a news conference in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Robert Bonner said a recent decline in arrests in Arizona, where the agency has focused its efforts over the past 18 months, shows that over a six-month period, fewer migrants tried to slip across the border illegally. "We're making progress," Bonner said, while his aides distributed a news release declaring, "Our strategy to gain operational control of our borders is working." But a look at the government's statistics over the entire fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, raises questions about Bonner's progress report. Consider: Along the entire 1,951-mile Southwestern border, agents have made 1.1 million arrests so far this year, a decline of 1.6 percent compared with all of last fiscal year. Bonner announced a 13 percent drop in arrests in Arizona from March 25 to Sept. 18, compared with the same time the previous year, as evidence that the federal government's strategy is working. But since the start of the fiscal year Oct. 1, the typical timeframe the agency uses to track statistics, agents made 564,591 arrests in Arizona, down 4.3 percent from last year. A record 437 undocumented immigrants' bodies have been recovered since Oct. 1, including 238 in Arizona. The governors of Arizona and New Mexico have declared states of emergency because of the relentless problems associated with smuggling and illegal immigration, opting to spend money from state coffers because of the perceived lack of federal response. Gauging effectiveness While Bonner asserted that a recent drop in border arrests is a sign of success, it's difficult for the public to measure, in part because of the agency's refusal to disclose its internal gauges of effectiveness. The only statistics provided to the media are apprehension figures, which officials have interpreted to their advantage. In spring 2004, top U.S. Border Patrol officials first announced the Arizona Border Control Initiative, a push to gain greater control along the state's 389-mile border. With 200 additional agents assigned to work in Arizona indefinitely, the number of arrests increased, which officials offered as evidence of the initiative's success. In the second phase of the initiative, announced a year later, the agency pledged 534 more agents and doubled the number of aircraft in Arizona. This time, the result has been a decrease of 4.3 percent, which also was called a success. Federal officials seem to want it both ways: When apprehensions increase, they herald that as a sign their strategy is working. When arrests drop, they also call it a success. So what is the public to believe? "All (the number of apprehensions) really tells you is that those are the people they caught," said Roger Hartley, a University of Arizona assistant professor who specializes in statistics and criminal justice. "Certainly it is a measure that they are catching people, but it doesn't necessarily mean the policy overall is effective." The Border Patrol keeps internal estimates for the number of undocumented immigrants believed to have slipped into the country on a daily basis, known as the "get-away ratio" but has declined repeated requests by The Arizona Republic and other media to disclose those numbers. In addition, if someone is arrested five times, the agency counts that as five apprehensions, which does not give an accurate picture of the actual number of people caught. "We don't keep track of the number of people, of individuals, we apprehend. I'm sure it's out there somewhere, but it shouldn't matter because the amount of apprehensions we make . . . is the number of times our agents have to go out there and apprehend someone," said Sean King, a spokesman for the Border Patrol's Tucson Sector. Interpreting numbers Richard Humphries, a retired Department of Public Safety officer who lives about 30 miles from the border in Cochise County, said it's hard to tell what apprehension numbers really mean. "I do know that in the past, (the Border Patrol's) figures have been consistently misleading," he said. "They love to tell you how many they caught, but they'll never tell you how many got away." Despite his statements of progress, Bonner on Thursday would not directly respond when asked whether he agreed with Gov. Janet Napolitano's decision to declare a state of emergency along the border. In recent years, Arizona has become the main gateway for illegal immigration, accounting for up 49 percent of arrests along the entire border since Oct. 1. Bonner said Thursday that the illegal immigration problem in Arizona is "better, but it still has serious problems." Napolitano said she was grateful for the added manpower provided by the ABC initiative but added, "This is just a start of something that's going to take way more than a press release to solve." Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a co-sponsor of a bipartisan immigration reform bill, said he wasn't sure how to interpret fluctuations in apprehensions. "I just know fundamentally that as long as there is a demand for workers there's going to be a supply of workers," McCain said. "They'll either come across the Arizona border, or they'll come across the Texas border, or California, or they'll parachute in. "That's why we need a guest-worker program, in combination with border enforcement." Mark Kirkorian, executive director for the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Immigration Studies, which favors stricter immigration controls, said it is too early to declare "victory" in solving Arizona's immigration problems. "Whatever the arrest numbers are, they will demonstrate that Washington is doing the right thing," he said. "The question is: Are lawmakers and citizens and outside observers sophisticated enough to detect the spin? That is often not the case."