Next PCs: Fish, Flowers, And Blazing Speeds

( 3/24/99; 5:00 PM EST)
By Kristen Kenedy, Computer Retail Week

If a prototype display at the recent Intel Developer's Forum is any indication, PCs of the future will resemble brightly colored fish, Bonsai trees, and bunnies.

But changes in appearance are just one element of the dramatic PC evolution retailers can expect in the next few years. As engineers work furiously to increase the throttle of CPU clock speeds -- expected to hit 1 gigahertz by 2000 -- efforts continue to focus on augmenting the power of the busses, ports, and components that also affect system performance.

While raw speed and performance have historically doubled about every 18 months, perhaps one of the most significant outgrowths from advancements in PC power will be ease-of-use features for consumers.

Intel has thrown its weight behind a number of initiatives that simplify PC tasks, and Computer Retail Week's discussions with PC makers indicate there is support for that movement. Already underway: a gradual shift from slower, cumbersome serial and parallel ports to faster, hot-swappable USB ports and IEEE 1394 (or FireWire) connections.

Manufacturers are also exploring ways to speed boot-up times and perfect suspend modes so that a PC is instantly available when a user presses a button on a keyboard.

And as processor speeds increase, computing-intensive applications such as speech recognition will also progress. Over time, using speech to control applications such as turning on a PC, launching applications, browsing the Web, and controlling consumer appliances, is expected to gain broad acceptance. Where it once took a series of mouse clicks to open an application, users of the future may simply need to ask for it.

More obvious benefits of faster PCs become apparent as broadband Internet technologies hit the mainstream. As PCs escape the confines of 56 kilobits per second transfer speeds, retailers will see more graphics, audio, and video for mass consumption via the Internet.

It could take years until cable and DSL modems are standardized in the consumer market, but more robust shopping, viewing, and listening experiences on the PC will emerge eventually.

These applications will not only need a robust CPU, but will also require complementary components to interpret the downloaded data. The hope is that much of the signal, video, and audio decompression can be handled by the processor, eliminating the need for costly add-in boards. Retailers can also look forward to getting serious about home networking as broadband enters the mainstream. Rather than having a modem on every PC within a house, one server will eventually be able to receive all the broadband data and deliver it to stations throughout the house, whether they are desktop PCs or Internet appliances, say analysts.

Beyond broadband, consumer-electronics powerhouses, such as Sony and Matsushita, are gearing up for in-home networking. Their idea is to use one connection, whether it is wireless or IEEE 1394, to connect digital TVs, stereos and home PCs. An example: Industry experts have discussed the possibility of a home PC server that stores music on a large hard drive that can be accessed by all stereos in the house.

There is also plenty of talk about the future of digital televisions as components. Some experts believe consumers will one day purchase a large flat-panel or plasma screen, which can be plugged into a digital TV receiver box, a PC or a combination device. This solution would help consumers make the most out of their expensive 'glass' purchase, while being able to more frequently upgrade less costly -- and quickly evolving -- products such as PCs and receivers.

Another product poised to get a boost from increased CPU power is the low-cost PC. As chips becomes more robust, expect PC makers to integrate more functions onto the CPU and its components. This year, retailers will see low-end PCs with audio, graphics and communications integrated into the CPU and chip set. As CPUs become more powerful, it's possible audio, networking, and communications could be handled completely by the processor.

© 1998 CMP Media, Inc.