I have remarked (and repeated quite often, including in this group) that it is far more frequent to see
the Law of Total Tricks failing by three or more tricks on the up side (i.e. total tricks made exceed by 3+ the number
of total trumps) than on the down side (i.e. total tricks are 3+ less than total trumps). In fact, I have never found one real-life
deal where total tricks actually taken are less than the number of total trumps minus four (L-4 as I call it), while the opposite,
i.e. total tricks actually taken exceeding total trumps by four (L+4) is not that rare.
Here is one deal from the 8th round of Tenerife, played today, where total tricks were 21 while total trumps were 16, i.e. it was an L+5 deal.
Board 13, North dealer, both vul.
8 3 A J 6 5 3 K Q 10 8 6 3 K Q 10 6 5 2 9 7 4 9 7 3 2 K 10 9 7 4 2 A Q 5 --- J 9 5 2 A J 4 K Q 10 8 J 8 6 A 7 4Finland gained 17 IMPs against France (twice the final margin of the match, 51 to 42 in their favour) when they made 5Hx as N-S and 4Sx as EW.
4S by West is unbeatable (in fact, if the defenders don't find their ruff an overtrick is possible) and it takes a club lead to beat 5H by North, while 5H by South is unbeatable on any lead.
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© 2001 Nikos Sarantakos
sarant@pt.lu
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