June 2001 Edition

News analysis and analytical perspectives from India and the sub-continent

Census 2001 - Evaluating the trends

Provisional data regarding population, decadal growth, density, literacy, and gender ratio of the Indian population has recently become available. And although there have been some important gains since the last Indian census from 1991, there are some exceedingly disturbing trends in the data that has been published so far.

On the positive side, some of the most dramatic improvements in literacy have been seen in what were previously considered highly backward states: (Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh whose literacy rates have now reached close to the national average.)

Progress in literacy is also significant when compared to 1947

Neverthess, India's literacy rate of 65% remains considerably below the literacy rates of other Asian countries that also experienced the depradations of colonial rule. India's most literate state of Kerala just about equals Vietnam's 1999 census figure:-

(If the latest figures were used for these nations, India's situation would appear even worse.)

It is important to note that Government spending on education (as a percentage of public expenditure) in Malaysia is at 15.4 per cent, Indonesia 9 per cent and Philippines 15.7 per cent - all significantly higher than education spending in India. (From Parul Malhotra, Financial Express, Feb 22, 2001)

India's literacy figures while comparable to those of Egypt and Oman trail Brazil (literacy figures in South America are fairly comparable to Brazil's)

Although in comparison to other South Asian nations, India continues to lead, the figures for Bihar remain particularly unsatisfactory:-

* This is an estimate by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Literacy in Bangladesh as per the last census in 1991 was determined to be 33% as against India's literacy of 52% at that time.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has also projected that literacy in Bangladesh will reach 65% this year, but the basis of that projection is not at all clear. Even with some aceleration in recent years, the trend lines suggest that literacy is more likely to reach between 45 and 50% in 2001. This provisional estimate will be updated with the actual numbers as data from the Bangladesh census is made public.

** This is an estimate by the Nepal Education Minister. As per the 1991 census, the literacy rate was 38%, and 40% of Nepal's school-age children were enrolled in school.

*** Afghanistan experienced rapid gains in literacy after 1975, (prior to the civil war of the 90s and the defeat of the Najibullah government). With the Taalibaan's decrees drastically curtailing educational opportunities for women, and with the enormous destruction of schools and educational infrastructure in the last decade of gruesome fighting, current estimates for Afghanistan's literacy are considerably lower.

Gender inequity continues to remain a serious problem in India. Although female literacy in India at 54% is much higher than female literacy in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Bangladesh, it trails male literacy in India (76%) by over 20 pecentage points.

(Only in Chandigarh, Goa, Delhi and the Andamans does female literacy approximate the 76% mark - the male average for the country.)

The lowest female literacy recorded was in Bihar, but the widest gender gap was in Rajasthan. One of the troubling aspects of the literacy data was how an industrially advanced state like Gujarat made below average progress with literacy growing only at 8.7% compared to the national average of 13.75%. Literacy growth in other relatively more industrialized states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Punjab was also below the national average at around 10-11%. West Bengal also delivered a below average progress report. In Kerala, progress was a dismal 1% for the decade. In Kashmir, the forces of Islamic fundamentalism have had an adverse effect, particularly on womens literacy.

On the other hand, industrially neglected states like Orissa and UP reported slightly higher than average improvements. It appears that once states exceed the national average, literacy growth tends to taper off, suggesting that spreading literacy to the final one third of the population may be a far bigger challenge than previously thought. Clearly, a renewed focus on achieving total literacy is required, with a special emphasis on female literacy, socially discriminated groups like Adivasis and Dalits, and economically neglected districts and states.

Another worrisome trend is that population growth remains extremely high in the Gangetic plain, an area that is already very densely populated. Although it is now estimated that population growth has slowed to 1.85%, this is double China's 0.9% growth rate and suggests that India's population will not stabilize until it hits 1.5 billion - an alarming proposition. Average population density in India has grown from 184 in 1970 to 324 in 2001.

As is evident from the table above, India is already one of the most densely populated nations in the world, (almost 11 times as densely populated as the US, and still growing at an uncomfortable pace). The Hindi-belt states continue to grow rapidly:

With the exception of the North East and Jammu & Kashmir (which are not as densely populated), the fastest growth rates were recorded in the already very dense gangetic plain. On the other hand, the southern states have been more successful in containing growth rates. Relatively less dense states like Orissa and Chhatisgarh are also making progress. A particularly disturbing trend in the states where population is growing very rapidly is the skewed gender ratio. While in Delhi it can be partially explained on the basis of male migration from the hinterlands, in the rest of the gangetic plain, it points to grave gender inequities and the tremendous social pressures to have more male offspring.

States with large Adivasi populations like Chhatisgarh are clearly way ahead in this respect, as are the southern states. Undoubtedly, the struggle for gender equity is key to managing the already high and rapidly growing populations of the Hindi-belt and Bengal.

Note: The 2001 census reveals a very dramatic jump in population in the North East states and this is most likely explained by a continuous migration of refugees from Bangladesh - Hindu and Buddhist political refugees and Muslim economic refugees.

According to the Delhi-based Asia-Pacific Human Rights Network, over 5 million political refugees from Bangladesh migrated into India between 1964 and 1991, and their analysis suggests that such migration would have continued in the last decade.

Accurate figures for economic migrants are hard to come by, but it is likely that such migrants have contributed to the growth rate in states such as West Bengal and Orissa, and to a lesser extent, the Hindi belt states.

Related Articles:

An analysis of the recent 'Population Policy'

India's Environmental Situation

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