| |
|
India' Demographic Transformation In recent years, government ministers and other policy-makers associated with the government have bemoaned how only 10% of India's teenagers are enrolled in tertiary education (behind the ASEAN average of 15%). As a consequence the government recently announced a scheme of sanctioning colleges in districts that lacked any tertiary facility. This would appear strange to those that see India as a rising "knowledge super-power" - a nation who according to a 2004 survey graduated 350,000 engineers (with a 4-yr undergraduate degree) and an additional 45,000 computer scientists (with a post-graduate MCA or equivalent degree). India's Engineering/Technical Pool With recent capacity additions, it now appears that the nation has the capability to graduate over 500,000 engineers annually, and there is also a corresponding increase in the graduation of computer scientists. In addition, the nation graduates over 1.2 million scientists. Furthermore, each year, the nation is enrolling at least 350,000 in its engineering diploma programs (with plans to increase this by about 50,000). This puts India ahead of the US not only in absolute (but also in per-capita) terms. India's annual enrollment of scientists, engineers and technicians now exceeds 2 million. And this is apart from those enrolled in business management, law, media, commerce, arts and the humanities. How could this be possible if the nation's tertiary enrollment were only 10%? As it turns out, analysis of data from Maharashtra, Andhra, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Meghalaya sharply contradicts this assumption. Maharashtra's Tertiary Enrolment Approaches 40% 8.7 lakhs (or .87 million) passed Maharashtra's Higher Secondary Board. In addition about 19,000 passed other boards. Demand for college seats has corresponded to these numbers, and capacity for college enrollment has been expanded so as to accomodate all eligible students. A further 100,000 graduate with polytechnic engineering/vocational diplomas. This puts Maharashtra's tertiary 2008 enrollment numbers at close to a million. Census data suggests that in 1990, about 26 million babies were born in India. This would put Maharashtra's college-age population at roughly 2.5 million, and its tertiary enrollment rate at 39% - (on par with the US) and almost four times as much as the current government estimate and 2.6 times the government's near term goal of 15%! Throughout the world, governments are typically notorious for over-estimating national achievements. The Indian government must be the only government in the world that is so out of touch with reality that it significantly under-reports the nation's educational achievements. Outdated Government Statistics In part, this is due to the sheer tardiness and incompetence of Indian central and state government agencies. Last year, the UGC provided provisional 2002-3 college enrollment data (as the only clue to India's tertiary enrollment) on its website. Since then, even that has been removed presumably because someone at the UGC realized that those numbers were completely out of date. Those provisional numbers suggested that tertiary enrollment was 10%, but they didn't include numbers from all the private colleges and deemed universities. Nor was enrollment in polytechnics and other vocational institutes included. Since then, there has also been a very rapid increase in smaller vocational/technical/computer institutes that have obtained affiliation through various open universities and distance education programs of traditional and technical universities. There has also been a significant increase in institutes affiliated to agencies offering Microsoft and Cisco certified computing and network oriented training. So far, the government has been unable to put in place any accurate tracking system for such developments. Furthermore, some states have taken remedial steps to improve school education. Just 4 years ago, failure rates in Maharashtra's secondary schools were quite high owing to poor results in Maths, Science and English. However, thanks to appropriate corrective steps, the pass rate has improved to roughly 80%, leading to a significantly higher demand for college seats. Analysis of data from other states suggests that while Maharashtra may not be the norm, tertiary enrollment numbers may have already crossed the 15% goal in 2008. With higher education enrollment growing at over 10% each year, it would be no surprise if it doubled in the last 6-7 years. Andhra Tertiary Enrolment Near 25% Data from Andhra shows that of .7 million (enrolled in High Schools or Junior Colleges), .43 million passed the Andhra Higher Secondary Board. An additional 15,000 passed other boards and 22,000 were enrolled in polytechnics. This would put the college-eligible population (plus those enrolled in polytechnic/vocational programs) at roughly 25% (similar to Maharashtra's 2003-4 rate, suggesting that with appropriate remedial measures, Andhra's results could be boosted to Maharashtra's level in 3-4 years). While data from Tamil Nadu is not readily available, one can only surmise that numbers for Tamil Nadu would be comparable since Tamil Nadu's tertiary education sector is no less developed than that of Maharashtra. Since secondary school pass rates are close to 90% in Kerala, Kerala's high school enrollment percentage (of over 70%) exceeds that in Maharashtra. It is, therefore, quite likely that Kerala is also on par with Maharashtra. It may also be reasonable to conclude that data from Goa would compare favorably. Data from Karnataka suggests that tertiary enrolment may be 10% lower than in than Andhra, but over 20%. Data from Delhi shows that college enrollment for 2008 (including polytechnics) will provide for about 64,000 higher-education slots and will be roughly 20% (of the eligible population). However, this is likely to fall short by 20-25,000 and several higher secondary graduates will seek admissions in the NCT - in the states of Haryana, Rajasthan and UP (primarily in Gurgaon, Faridabad, Rohtak, Sonepat, Alwar, Noida and Ghaziabad). That would probably put Delhi's tertiary enrollment rate at above 25% as well. Most States Above 15% While precise college enrollment data is not available for Haryana, annual polytechnic/vocational enrollment stands at 25,000. In addition, out of the 1.8 lakh enrolled in Higher Secondary schools, 1.33 lakhs passed the 2008 March exam. An additional 36,000 passed the CBSE board. This puts Haryana's eligible (or potential) tertiary student body at 39% - on par with Maharashtra. However, detailed examination of Haryana's data reveals that the percentage of students passing with Science or Economics is significantly lower than in Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, higher secondary science enrollment exceeds 30%, and commerce enrollment is about 40%, whereas in Haryana science enrollment is only about half, and commerce enrollment is also much lower (though polytechnic enrollment is very good and somewhat higher). Data from Madhya Pradesh (a less-developed state compared to Maharashtra or Haryana) reveals the 2008 tertiary eligible (plus polytechnic) percentage to be at roughly 19%, just a tad above Meghalaya's 18%. Progress has also been reported from previous laggards like UP where school students are no longer failing maths and science courses as before and like in Madhya Pradesh, there has been a sharp growth in engineering, MBA and MCA seats on offer. Orissa, Rajasthan and West Bengal have also been trying to make up for lost time. What this means is that apart from states like Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh - (where the 15% goal may still make sense) the current tertiary education policy may be already out of date for much of the country. Human Development Implications Apart from the obvious conclusions, there are also some subtle (but important) sociological and anthropological implications of these developments - particularly concerning Maharashtra (and other such more developed Indian states). Most nations (or states) do not achieve such high tertiary enrollment numbers unless there is a corresponding transformation in the country (or state) as a whole. Families do not keep their children through high school or enrol them in polytechnic institutes or colleges in such high numbers if they are malnourished or struggling to survive. If one were to accept UN Human Development data for India at face value, such tertiary enrollment rates would be virtually unfathomable - even impossible. Maharashtra's figures are higher than an EU aspirant like Turkey and many other nations ranked much higher on the UN's HDI index. They are also a good bit higher than China's (which for many Indians and international Pundits is the "model" to beat). Could India's human development index really be as bad as is generally made out? Industry Surveys and Government Numbers at odds For instance, economic surveys initiated by NGO's, the government's NSSO, and by industrial associations such as ASSOCHAM or FICCI have yielded widely different results on poverty rates, and rural consumption patterns. ASSOCHAM surveys in 2006 put poverty at 18%, (which was 20% below government estimates) and 30-40% below some NGO estimates. Six months ago, just before Diwali, government GDP numbers showed a 7% growth in the purchase of consumer goods (a dramatic fall from the previous year's 13% growth). But a FICCI survey revealed something quite different. Whereas the urban growth rate had indeed fallen to 7%, the rural rate had picked up quite dramatically to 25% and the overall rate had been estimated at 14% - higher than the previous year's estimate. Statements from major manufacturers and retailers corroborated the FICCI numbers and contradicted the government reports. An explanation for this dramatic rise might lie in the partial completion of the Pradhan Mantri Grameen Sadak Yokana that linked villages of populations over a thousand (and some with population over 500) to the nearby towns with paved roads. With improved transport facilities, there could have been a corresponding explosion in rural sales. Retailers (like ITC) have already built hundreds of rural malls in the North West and Western regions of the country. It is likely that some of the rural purchases that would have taken place in urban retail outlets are now taking place closer to home. Since government data is based on models built from data gathered before 1993, it is hardly surprising if government data missed this trend. ] But this may be just one small example of flawed statistics and leads one to ask if there is a larger pattern of mis-reporting. Has there been a perhaps unwitting tendency on the part of activists, NGOs, journalists and government statistical agencies to under-estimate national progress and over-estimate rural poverty? Farmers Real Income - Anecdotal Evidence In early 2005, a journalistic team from our site had the opportunity to interview over a dozen cotton farmers (with dryland holdings of about 4 acres) from the Aurangabad region. At first, our team was given the impression that their average income (from cotton farming) was a mere 2500 rupees a month. Concerned at their plight, our team queried further. After an engagement that lasted almost two hours, it was elicited that cotton farming was not their sole source of income. For most of the year, they were able to augment their income with milk (and other dairy) sales. For one season a year, they were also able to raise a vegetable crop that provided additional income; and in the off-season, most able adult males hired themselves out for daily wages at 80-90 rupees for a six-seven hour day. This brought their actual income closer to 6000-6500 - more than double of what they had indicated early on. An interview (in a previous year) in the Chhatarpur district of Madhya Pradesh similarly revealed that off-season day labor typically brought in an extra 2000 rupees a month (for six months of the year) - increasing the annual income from farming by a third for many a small farmer. While it would be inappropriate to extrapolate too much from just a few examples such as these, it is not at all clear if NSSO workers spend enough time to unearth all the sourcs of income that make up a small farmer's true earnings. In most parts of the country, farmers are savvy enough to under-report their incomes to government representatives because they are well aware that many government programs, subsidies and fiscal concessions spring from the district poverty estimates. Local politicians with a vested interest in maximizing funds for their particular constituencies might also wish to keep such under-reporting hidden and might play along. Since governments are typically very stingy with welfare allocations, it would be no surprise if activists and progressive NGOs might also have a subconscious tendency to exaggerate the incidence of poverty. However, even such noble sentiments can lead to very unwelcome policy distortions. Inaccurate Data and Misguided or Outdated Policies An unintended outcome of such data inaccuracies is that the genuinely poor districts are then forced to share limited rural welfare funds with districts that may not be quite as poor. It would be much better for the nation if policy makers were more generous with their welfare allocations, but had the benefit of truly accurate data so that the allocations could be properly targeted and monitored. Moreover, when rural poverty is over-reported (in the less poor districts), it tends to take away attention from the urban poor. For many years now, we have seen the total neglect of the slum-dwelling poor in most cities. There has also been little concern for those urban residents who may be marginally above the official poverty line, but may still be struggling to meet healthcare and other essential costs. Industry surveys could be more realistic because they have relied not on self-reporting (which could be biased) but on data provided by rural retail outlets who appear to consistently report higher consumption figures than what might be inferred from the NSSO's data derived from personal interviews. It would be much fairer to acknowledge the higher rural incomes in some areas of the country, but to raise the country's poverty threshold so that more of the working poor in both urban and rural areas could be included in targeted welfare measures. This would lead to more efficacious poverty-alleviation programs. Flawed data can not only lead to distortions in schemes aimed at reducing poverty, it can also lead to the formulation of misguided development policies in general. Going forward, in the most advanced states (like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu), the higher education focus ought to be on quality (as opposed to quantity) and the main effort should be on improving the efficacy of undergraduate education and increasing slots for post-graduates. Special effort ought to be paid to increasing the output of PhDs, augmenting research facilities and attracting more Post-Docs. In states like Haryana, emphasis ought to be placed on increasing science and commerce enrollment; in Andhra, the focus ought to be on improving the higher secondary graduation rates; and for states like Madhya Pradesh, the tertiary target should be raised to 25%. Government officials and other policy-makers should now realize that much of India has already crossed ASEAN levels of tertiary enrollment and the nation should now be trying to learn from the experience of developed Asia or Europe. For instance, S. Korea leads the world in terms of vocational enrollment by offering slots to virtually everyone who fails to garner a spot in its highly competitive universities (many of which are world-class). Indian policy-makers need to find suitable vocational alternatives for those who are compelled to drop out from school (due to economic pressures) as well as for those who fail the board exams. Many poor children drop out temporarily but fail to get back in because they lose their previous certificates and can't prove their eligibility. If all school records were computerized, no child's passing difficulties would become permanent hindrances to progress. There needs to be a system for open (and remedial) vocational training that relaxes the formal criterion and accepts students based on aptitude tests and certain minimal reading, comprehension, writing and arithmetic skills. Also, students who fail English (but pass other courses) must be provided alternatives in the vernacular. Implications for Government and Industry Policy makers must now realize that nothwithstanding the under-developed state of India's infrastructure, some quadrants of the nation have already attained a certain level of demographic parity with the advanced nations of the world. With such high rates of tertiary enolment in several states, Indian planners, government officials and politicians should be more paying attention to how this growing talent pool can be more effectively leveraged for the benefit of the nation. While rectifying sectoral defects in India's higher education, there must also be increased focus on science communication, research, innovation and technological outreach. There ought to be state and national initiatives geared towards more ambitious development projects that could transform India into a first-world nation - not just in mental or abstract terms but in the realm of concrete physical reality. Indian industry leaders should also be more aware of such paradigm-shifting developments because they have vital ramifications for national and international business planners, lending institutions, investors, credit-rating and risk-assessement agencies. There is a very big difference in the sociological characteristics and growth potential of a nation whose tertiary enrollment rate is close to 40% in some states, than one in which it is only 10%. If the extent of India's demographic transition were known and fully understood by foreign investors, it is more than likely that many foreign business and investors that have so far remained aloof from India (or hurriedly left India) would be more than eager to play a positive role in India's future. The last decade has seen a very dramatic (and perhaps, unprecendented) rise in enrollment and retention at all educational levels, and in states like Maharashtra, it is comparable to the first-world in quantitative terms. With a savings rate of over 35%, India has the potential for double-digit growth rates if supported by the right government policies that encourage concomitant qualitative improvements in education and physical infrastructure. One can only hope that Indian policy makers will seek to be better informed and set intermediate and strategic goals that will place India on a path of further growth and development.
Data
has been gathered (or extrapolated) from various news reports and state
higher-education and examination board websites. Wherever possible,
2008 (or the most recent) data has been used. The
breakdown of polytechnic enrollment is as follows: Maharashtra: 100k;
Tamil Nadu 62k - 75k; Karnataka 36k-47k; Andhra 22k - 30k; Haryana 25k
(plans to increase to 50k); Gujarat 25k; Delhi 3.3k; Madhya Pradesh (Gross enrollment 64k - annual extrapolated to 18k); Punjab 14k (3-yr old figure, could be higher now); Kerala 10k; The breakdown of engineering enrollment capacity is roughly as follows: Tamil Nadu 85k+; Andhra 85k+; Maharashtra 70k; UP 40k; Karnataka 36k+; Madhya Pradesh 36k+; Haryana 21k; Kerala 20k; Gujarat 18k; Rajasthan 18k; Orissa 14k; Punjab
14k; West Bengal 12k; Jharkhand 6k; Uttaranchal 5k; Chhattisgarh 3k;
Delhi 3k; Himachal 2k; Assam, NE, Goa, JK, Pondicherry, Chandigarh =
8k+; Related Essays:
The Colonial Legacy and India's Knowledge Infrastructure Human Development and Infrastructure in the Indian Subcontinent Back for other selections from South Asian Voice for other articles on issues confronting India and the region. Also see South Asian History or Topics in Indian History for relevant essays that shed some light on the history of the subcontinent. (If you liked our site, or would like to help with the South Asian Voice project and help us expand our reach, please click here) To send an e-mail, write to india.resource @yahoo.com
|
