Update to my last post on 'I'm a celebrity'.
After I wrote about 'I'm a celebrity' I spoke to a friend who is VERY good at making money betting on TV elimination shows. He is a professional gambler who now spends most of his day trading the markets on Betfair and has never had to work in his whole life. In the first series of Big Brother, he correctly worked out the winner after only three days! I could not go ahead without consulting him first. His view on Saturday midday was:

He could not see Jordan winning. All her best 'assets' had already been on display. She has little to say and is lazy regarding the general duties of maintaining the camp. He encouraged me to lay her at the short prices available (3.75). His forecast said: 'As the group gets smaller, I think it will emphasise how little Jordan does'.

He agreed with me that Brocket was value in the 7 region.

He disagreed with my idea of laying Kerry, but agreed that Peter could be laid, although it would involve tying up a lot of capital.

He said that Alex Best should be bet at the high prices she was fetching (high 40s), with a view that she would last longer into the show and her price would shorten. He thinks that she could outlast Jordan. In particular, she had not yet performed a task and had no profile with the viewers. But that was soon to change as he explained: ...Alex doing task tonight, so her odds will now shorten. He stressed that last year, Linda Barker did absolutely nothing for the first four days yet still made it to the final three.

As a consequence of the discussion, I put #300 into Betfair and bet Brocket at 6.8, laid Jordan to potentially lose over #250 and bet a small amount on Alex. I have no other positions.

Since then, Jordan's price has drifted in the market, exactly as I want it to. As I write this she is at 4.9/5.0 to bet/lay. Early on this morning, my advisor was worried: Watching live feed, she has apologised for being lazy in first week, said she's ready to be herself and explained that since she left school and went into modelling she has always had everything done for her, so has never been in team environment; and is now getting on OK with Johnny.'

This was potentially a disaster and I had the dilemma of whether to hold out, given that he still didn't think she could win, or to take some profits. Luckily I had done nothing before his next e-mail: 'Forget last e-mail, Just got wind of The Sun front page about Beckham, that will go against her for sure.'

I had a look at the paper's website and found to my great relief that Jordan had made remarks insinuating a scandal involving David Beckham. What a close shave that was! This will turn the public against her, especially as she seems to be using the show to promote a forthcoming book. Good old-fashioned British jealousy should ensure that enough people hate her for trying to make more money from it. It's already been reported that she got #100,000 for the show and has ordered a Bentley.

This extract from the Sun is not likely to help either: JORDAN, tipped by The Sun to win, yesterday told Peter Andre she fancied him and was ready to dump lover Scott Sullivan. Jordan, who has already shared a steamy bedtime cuddle with Peter, moaned that Scott hadn't wished her luck before her jungle stint.

Exactly as he forecasted, Alex shortened from 46 to about 30 at time of writing. Brocket is unchanged. My best case scenario would be for Jordan to be eliminated and then for Johnny Lydon to walk out. That would be the 'perfect storm' for my positions. My advisor was in profit before the show started, as the advance market offered high prices on Johnny, which he knew would fall once it was clear that he wasn't a lunatic.

I'm hoping to reach that much revered 'all green' scenario, where you win whatever the outcome because of your successful trading. Wish me luck.