I don't watch much television these days. Since getting flat-rate home internet access three years ago, my TV viewing has dropped about 60 per cent. It doesn't help that much of what is available on screen falls into a small number of categories, all of which hold no interest to me: gardening, home-decoration/property speculation and elimination games.
But I've made an exception for one of the last category. I have somehow found time in my busy life to see bits of series three of 'I'm a celebrity, get me out of here'. I don't recall seeing any of the first two series and I must confess that I'm only watching this one because of the gambling aspect to it. In fact, I cannot grasp how anyone can watch elimination shows without having bet on them. It's like watching horse-racing for the sheer spectacle of observing equine movement. It never happens.
Anyway, the 'special bets' sections of both Betfair and Betdaq allow betting on the eventual winner of the series. Being betting exchanges rather than bookmakers, they permit me to 'lay' bets as well as making them. This is important, as the way I see it, there are only four people who can win.
A summary of how I categorise the ten contestants, with their proability of winning:
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No-hopers:
Alex Best - 0.5 per cent
Diane Modahl - 0.5 per cent
Jennie Bond - 0.5 per cent
Mike Read - 0.5 per cent
Slender chance:
Peter Andre - 4 per cent
Kerry McFadden - 4 per cent
Slight outsider:
Neil Ruddock - 15 per cent
Favourites:
Lord Brocket - 25 per cent
Johnny Lydon - 25 per cent
Jordan - 25 per cent
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Using these estimates, I can calculate the prices at which I am indifferent to laying or betting. I shall express them in decimal terms, where the number shown indicates the amount that a bettor would receive on a winning bet. For example, a winning bet on an even money chance would be 2.0, as the #1 bet is returned with a #1 profit. A figure of 4.0 means a 3-1 shot in the old-fashioned bookmaking parlance.
Alex Best 200
Diane Modahl 200
Jennie Bond 200
Mike Read 200
Peter Andre 25
Kerry McFadden 25
Neil Ruddock 6.66
Lord Brocket 4
Johnny Lydon 4
Jordan 4
I can compare these prices with those available on the exchanges. I must stress the importance of ignoring the prices you see in the high street bookmakers like Ladbrokes. As I have pointed out before, the high street chains are gradually withdrawing from the business of offering bets on anything that actually exists. They now make their money from roulette machines and slots principally. If they were forced to abandon the machines, many would close overnight. I once sat in a shop in Torquay with Neil Channing for part of an afternoon. In the time we were there, I saw about two other people place bets on horses in about two hours!
Comparison with the prices available at the exchanges reveals that Lord Brocket in a good bet, as is Neil Ruddock. Many of the others can be profitably laid. I haven't done it yet as I need to learn more about the eviction system but if it's run on a popular vote like Big Brother then I should act. It's all about having a variant perception.
So where do I get my estimates? Well, I see it as a big disadvantage to be young, as it's hard to display leadership, maturity and wisdom in your 20s when surrounded by others in their 30s, 40s and 50s. While many of those voting will be young themselves, they are not likely to remember the career of Peter Andre. You would need a microscope to find it now. The Atomic Kitten girl, Kerry, is too weak to last the course.
I also think it's a disadvantage to be muscular or big, as the shortage of food will be harder to bear. The effect is that Andre and Ruddock will tire and thus become boring to the viewers. The exception is Lord Brocket who despite being quite tall seems to be chirpy. But he's not as muscular as Peter Andre.
Johnny Rotten is the most chirpy of them all and to start with showed little tendancy to moan. He has been quite sensible thus far but I think he will start to irritate some viewers as the show goes on. He recently got annoyed by Jordan and ran away from the camp.
Why do I like Brocket's chances? Well, he is polite, speaks well and comes over as rather charming. He doesn't seem at all stuck up and is the only aristocrat I am aware of who starts an anecdote with 'I was at a Hell's Angel's party when....'.
The fact that he has been to prison (and public school) and served in the armed forces means that he is used to being stuck with people in a confined space and has had to learn how to get along with them. The only drawback is that he is a convicted criminal and this might deter some voters. On the other hand, many of us like to forgive people and Brocket doesn't excuse what he did. The prices available on him offer great value in my opinion.
The beauty of betting exchanges is that you don't have to get the winner right to make money. You can earn money merely be correctly anticipating the way that the prices move. If for example I lay Peter Andre at 17.5, as I could this morning, and his price drifts out to 40 as the show wears on, I merely have to make a bet on him at the bigger price to lock in a profit.
Many people make their money on Betfair merely by being good at forecasting how the betting money moves. They don't have to have any exposure to the actual outcome if they match their positions to their advantage later!!
There is one other exchange that I haven't mentioned. It's called SportingOptions.com and offers a far better commision structure than Betfair with far greater liquidity than Betdaq. Sadly it doesn't have a market for this show, which is a shame, as I would like to give it some business. In a later post, I will get someone to explain why it has long term cost advantages over Betfair.
Wish me luck!
_ DY
at 3:10 PM GMT