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Web site helps public plan for quakes

Petaluma earthquake experts provide information about preventing injury and damage

August 8, 2001

By JANET HOLMAN PARMER
FOR THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

If you were strolling the aisles of a supermarket and the floor started shaking, what would you do if you feared it was an earthquake?

Unless you had thought about it previously, you might not budge from where you were standing, even if it were an aisle stacked with cans and bottles. In a moment of fright, you might dash to the glass front doors to escape injury. Neither is the right choice.
With a little advance knowledge, you would know to immediately move towards the chips or bread sections and stay put until the shaking ceased.

It's that type of information Petra Challus of Petaluma and Don Eck of Hollister want to share with Web-surfing citizens.

They launched a Web site, www.theseismicsafetyzone.com, to help the public plan for earthquakes.

Challus, a customer service agent at a local insurance agency, is a serious student of earthquake science. She has writing two books related to earthquakes, one she calls a fictional "geological romance," and the other a non-fiction book containing interviews she conducted with seismologists about earthquake prediction.

Rather than feel paralyzed by fear of the unknown, she believes the public needs to know more about what to do to prevent injury and property damage when an earthquake occurs.

She acknowledges there is risk living in close proximity to Rodgers Creek Fault, which is located about four miles east of Petaluma, and runs from the Black Point area of Novato north to Cloverdale.

"Underneath Sonoma Mountain is a sleeping giant," Challus said.
She says the U.S. Geological Survey estimates there is a 67 percent chance of a 7.0 or greater earthquake along the Rodgers Creek fault within the next 30 years.
"The damage will be significant, but in reality the greatest concern will be getting cut off from essential services," she said.

She says the risk of a severe earthquake is greater in places other than Petaluma.
"But it's less risk than a tornado or flood. The main problem with earthquake damage is the clean up," said Challus, noting other natural disasters are more likely than earthquakes to cause serious injuries and deaths.

Homes in west Petaluma were constructed on bedrock and are more likely to withstand an earthquake than those built more recently in the Petaluma valley area, she said.
Challus has studied geology at Sonoma State University, and for the past couple of years has attended the American Geophysical Union's annual conferences in San Francisco. She also made trips to Parkfield, a remote town northeast of San Luis Obispo, which has had extensive seismic activity.

Although the average tourist would find little of interest in Parkfield, earthquake researchers know this is where the U.S. Geological Survey has placed important seismic monitoring equipment.

A lifelong California resident, Challus is accustomed to living in a place where earthquakes are a constant threat. She has vivid memories of being inside an old masonry building in San Francisco during a 1966 quake. It felt like being caught in ocean waves, she said.

She also remembers being on the second floor of the Herold building in downtown Petaluma, which "shook like crazy" when the Loma Prieta earthquake struck in 1989.
Those quakes heightened her interest in learning more about earthquakes, but it wasn't until three years ago that it truly became an avocation for her. Challus estimates she spends at least two hours a day on earthquake-related research.

Challus actually looks forward to a local earthquake because it would give her a great opportunity for field research.

"I've done a lot of fault study and want to see what would happen if there were a 5.0 in my area," she said.

She has done informal geological research on a remote stretch of Lichau Road, northeast of downtown Penngrove. The private property contains sag ponds and shutter ridges indicating there has been movement of the soil.

From the rocks she collected there, Challus knows there has been volcanic activity in the past.

For the past two years she has walked around the area, toting a tape recorder to keep track of the subtle sounds emanating from the earth. She also brings a notebook and camera to record changes that occur in the landscape.

"It's the perfect place. It's on a known fault and it's somewhere where you can go in nature," Challus said.

Seismologists are reluctant to issue short-term warnings about potentially imminent quakes, Challus said, because they don't want to be the target of criticism if their predictions don't pan out.

"They don't feel they've got it narrowed down enough or their methods are sophisticated enough to predict an earthquake within three days," she said.

Earthquake scientists don't want to be compared to weather forecasters, and worry if they started making public predictions, and were wrong, people would criticize their work, she said.

"They talk about if they said there'd be a magnitude 4.0 quake four weeks in a row and it never happened, what would people think? Also, if they said there'd be an 8.0, what would you do?" Challus said.

She cites psychological studies indicating if people were given between 30 minutes and two days to evacuate an area because of a prediction of a severe earthquake, everyone would hit the freeway and more people would be hurt trying to escape than if they stayed put.

Challus and her Web site partner, Eck, a former military intelligence officer, have posted tips to help the public get ready for an earthquake. They also provide links to other sources and have information about earthquake insurance, photos, cartoons, poems and the "fault of the month" page.

As part of their joint venture, they plan to launch a Seismostore, which will be an online shopping place for hard-to-find earthquake safety items, such as wind-up radios that don't need batteries, Velcro straps to secure computers in place, and a battery that has a 10-year shelf life. They will assemble an earthquake kit for children, containing art supplies and a small teddy bear, to help ease anxiety about earthquakes.
"The idea is for them not to be so frightened. If you grow up learning these things happen, you should also know it doesn't always mean disaster. We live in earthquake country," Challus said.

You can reach Correspondent Janet Holman Parmer at 762-7297 or e-mail jhparmer@home.com.


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