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The Economy  «
Stratton Research Notes and Miscellany
Tuesday, March 8, 2005
Business to lead economic growth again
Topic: The Economy
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that business is set to resume its traditional role as the leading force in the expansion of the economy. Many companies have large stores of cash that they are using to buy equipment and to hire.

What could follow:

More construction spending
More job creation
More demand for office and industrial space
More orders for goods and services to meet business needs

Possible flies in the ointment:

Rising interest rates
High oil prices

Higher oil prices might have a nuanced impact on economic growth. The US economy, as a whole, simply uses much less oil per unit of productivity than in the past due to the movement from a goods-producing to service-producing basis. Nevertheless, there is a high oil impact. There are some estimates that high oil prices knocked 0.75% off last year's growth in GDP. Even 10 years ago the impact of high oil prices like we have today would have been 20% to 30% greater. Reference: See article on front page of todays WSJ (How Retooling Lifts U.S. Economy)

Posted by Jim Stratton at 1:24 PM CST
Updated: Tuesday, March 8, 2005 4:25 PM CST

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