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April 27, 1999
There will be plenty of roster changes in Philadelphia again, whether or not Bobby Clarke gets gassed. Does Eric Lindros get moved even though he was physically unable to perform in the Playoffs? Is the decision to save a few million on a goalie by getting John Vanbiesbrouck going to be corrected by getting a goalie more suited to a team trying to take a legitimate run at a Stanley Cup. The Flyers are a great example of a team that proves that the sum of the parts don’t always add up to a whole team! The chemistry stinks, and unless they stop making superficial changes and finally change some of the core the losing when it counts will not stop. Total free agents Mark Recchi & defenseman Steve Duchesne are both unlikely to sign in the city of brotherly love.
With Wayne Gretzky retired will the New York Rangers go after one of the big free agents of either Recchi and or Fleury? Even if they get one of those free agents there could still be more troubled times in New York if Brian Leetch doesn’t resign with the club. The Rangers will be in a total rebuild mode losing Leetch, and if that happens would goalie Mike Richter be far behind?
The Rangers will continue on building from within with their talented youth and watch for forwards Marc Savard, Petr Nedved, Niklas Sundstrom, Manny Malhotra and goalie Dan Cloutier to get bigger roles with the club.
The Rangers Neil Smith proved this season, to his credit, that he will not try to buy a playoff spot with a mediocre team. But is this a short-term thing or is he willing to take the abuse of rebuilding in New York?
After being reminded of Mark Messier’s mega-star popularity in New York and the lack of respect he gets in Vancouver with the faltering Canucks, would bringing Messier back to New York be possible? It does make sense for both teams as all that it would take on the Rangers side is a bit of cash and maybe a player or two. The Canucks are a long way from being legitimate contenders for a Playoff spot let alone the Stanley Cup, so giving Messier a happier last few seasons would be a classy thing for the team to do.
Fleury was being rumored to be going to a number of different teams, most notably the Rangers. However, he has stated in the past that he wants to play in the West which could very well mean a continued stay in Colorado. If Fleury does stay in Colorado that most assuredly means Valeri Kamensky will have to look for opportunities elsewhere.
After scoring only 14 goals this past season in 65 games, Kamensky could still be a handy scorer on a team that needs scoring depth. The Vancouver Canucks were rumored to be interested in him partly due to his past relationship and success with Canucks coach Marc Crawford. The Canucks are not likely to spend the money on a high quality free agent and would be unlikely to put land even an aging scorer such as Kamensky.
Will the financial troubles facing the Pittsburgh Penguins force them into dumping Jaromir Jagr and any combination of Kevin Hatcher and or Tom Barrasso? The Penguins troubles have been well documented, but we are no closer to the answer to the question of will they be disbanded, moved, and or sold! If Jagr is dumped look for the Rangers, Kings, & possibly the Flyers to be key destinations.
The San Jose Sharks have had great support from their fans since the birth of the franchise, but they would go along way in keeping fan support by resigning popular Vincent Damphousse. Who in a very short time proved to be a fan favorite. The Sharks proved they can play defense, but you can’t win many games if you have trouble scoring more than 2 goals a game!
Even though goalie Mike Vernon was the choice of coach Darryl Sutter to guide the team through the playoffs there is little doubt that the if they protect only one goalie in the Expansion draft it will most likely be the much younger and cheaper than Steve Shields. Shields has played very well this season and appears ready to be some teams number one goalie, plus he is approximately 9 years younger than Vernon. Remember getting dumped by a team after getting the bulk of that teams playoff action is nothing new to Vernon. He was dealt from Detroit after winning the Stanley Cup.
Speaking of California teams that have great fan support, how about the less than mighty Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Will they finally give Kariya & Selanne some talent to work with? An offensive free agent with the capabilities of 30 plus goals would do wonders for the team and while there at it how about another NHL defenseman. Unfortunately Disney, the owners of the Ducks, would rather make money than have a team that can contend for the Stanley Cup.
Players such as Andrew Cassels and Steve Duchesne will garner a lot less interest than some of the bigger free agents. But they may still be the recipients of an excellent paydays by the teams that lose out on the big free agents. Whether Steve Duchesne should get rewarded for being a free agent as he was such a dismal failure in the same situation with Los Angeles this past season. A lot will depend on his success or failure in the Playoffs.
Joe Juneau has been rumored to be interested in signing with the Montreal Canadiens after the Buffalo Sabres’ Playoff hunt is over. But depending on his asking price and the success of the Sabres in the Playoffs, could Buffalo come up with enough cash to retain him? Remember winning is a great incentive for staying with a franchise.
There are lots of questions and so few answers this time of the year, but one thing is assured this will be a long summer for teams and players. For some of the group two free agents the summer will be likely to extend well into the season as teams try to keep costs under control.
May 5, 1999
In the late 90’s there will be another factor that must not be overlooked when predicting off years before they happen. That is holdouts and they happen for many reasons. Sometimes the player’s a restricted free agent and is using the only real means he has of garnering a contract from his team. While a player like Keith Tkachuk is often unhappy a season or two after signing a long term contract with a huge signing bonus. While still other players just want to be traded for personal reasons and will hold out to ensure a trade.
Sometimes a player signs in time to start the season but not in time to go to training camp. All too often that player then is injured and misses a substantial amount of games. This happens all the time in football, but as more players are starting to hold out in hockey this will happen more often.
The Edmonton Oilers most valuable player is Doug Weight and before this season the Oilers were faced with him holding out. The team eventually gave in to his demands but not until he missed all of training camp and the exhibition games and a few regular season games. Then after only playing in a handful of games he suffered a serious knee injury (MCL) and missed a few months of the season. After he returned from the injury his play was tentative and he recorded only 37 points in 43 games this season. Weight will return to his previous production levels and should record 70 – 80 points.
A special note to Fantasy owners in keeper leagues with the Florida’s injured Pavel Bure. The important thing to remember about the dreaded MCL injury is it often takes a player a few seasons before he fully recovers physically as well as mentally. Pavel Bure will definitely improve on his 16 points in 11 games which over a full season works out to nearly 120 points. He will not come close to the mark this season and owners should more realistically expect 60 – 70 points over a full season. This is the second time he’s had to recover from a major knee injury and if you can get a player like Jason Allison of the Boston Bruins you would be getting a much safer player.
Vancouver Canucks defenseman Bryan McCabe plays a good old in your face style of hockey, but he does have a reasonable amount of offensive talent. He recorded 19 points in 69 games in a hold out shortened season. Unlike Weight, McCabe never suffered an injury but he did lose valuable time. There is no reason that McCabe shouldn’t approach 35 points this season.
Trevor Linden was not the only player on the New York Islanders to have an off year. He didn’t miss any regular season games, but he did miss the preseason. He recorded a horrible a 47 points this season and looked very unhappy doing it. There is also no secret that Linden would welcome a trade out of New York. If Linden is traded look for a 20-point increase, but if he stays still look for a 10-point increase.
Speaking of Islanders that had terrible years, how about Zigmund Palffy who recorded 50 points in 50 games. He should be treated like a star, but GM Mike Milbury usually treats him with disdain. Like Linden, Palffy’s production would be helped by a move, but he should still see a 25 point increase on Long Island.
Goalie Felix Potvin went from being the odd man out in Toronto with the arrival of Curtis Joseph, to making Tommy Salo the odd man out with the New York Islanders. Potvin was horrible in most of his time with the Islanders, but he was coming on by the end of the season and should be a good Fantasy league goalie in the 1999-2000 season. He is the number one goalie with the Islanders and he could easily win 20.
Goalie Mike Dunham of the Nashville Predators proved he is capable of being a number one goalie. Now he has to prove he is not injury prone and can take the pounding of playing a full season. While many team’s starting goalies were playing 60 – 70 games, but due to injuries Dunham was only able to play in 44 games. He did win 16 games and should add to that this year with another 20 games played. The one caveat is expansion teams sometimes play over their heads in the first year and if this is the case with the Predators, Dunham’s numbers might not increase as that much even with the extra games.
Dallas Drake of the Phoenix Coyotes would never be mistaken for an offensive forward, but as he proved in the first 6 games versus the St. Louis Blues in the playoffs where he recorded 7 points, he does have some talent. He only had 31 points in 53 regular season games which is on pace to approach 50 points over a full season. Only in his rookie season has Drake been able to play 70 or more games, so injuries are a factor. But if you are able to draft him with 35- 40 points in mind, you may find yourself rewarded with 50 plus.
These players and many like them can give you a necessary edge in Fantasy leagues. Plus if you were able to pick them up in your keeper league below their usual market you can also find yourself saving some important fantasy dollars for spending on another player. A player improving 10 points the following season, but still costing a Fantasy owner last years dollars is very valuable to a putting a team over the top.
May 12, 1999
All Statistics are good as of games played May 10th.
The National Hockey League Playoffs are well underway as the second round reaches the midpoint. Experienced fantasy owners know not to put too much stock in a player’s playoff statistics when figuring out how much that same player is worth during the following regular season. There are few players that produce at the same points-per-game pace in the playoffs they did in the regular season.
A player such as Sergei Fedorov is well known for his mediocre production during the regular season. But he is just as well known for being amongst the top of scoring leaders when the post season comes along. Unfortunately for many Fantasy owners bidding on a player in the regular season, they place too great a weight on that player’s production in the playoffs!
There are however, some players that are and have increased their value for next season by their spectacular performance during this years post season.
The St. Louis Blues’ trio of Pierre Turgeon, Scott Young & Al Macinnis have all produced above expectations to date. Pierre Turgeon has had a reputation of being a soft player that would disappear in a big game. But with 11 points in only 10 playoff games, maybe he should get a bit more respect next season. There is word out of St. Louis that Turgeon has no long-term future with the Blues. That really should be of little consequence for any fantasy owners that are planning on taking Turgeon. He’ll produce well with almost any team he would end up with.
Al Macinnis had a great season and has a very good chance of winning the Norris Trophy for being the best NHL defenseman. He also topped the scoring list for points by a defenseman with 63. It is hard to believe, but with 10 points in 10 playoff games, he’s producing at a better pace than he did during the season. With such a great season and playoff, he should be a top 3 defenseman. In a fantasy keeper league he would drop down a little bit because of age, but due to his consistency Macinnis is still quite valuable in that format.
Scott Young has produced well in previous playoffs, most notably in the year he helped the Colorado Avalanche win their only Stanley Cup. In the playoffs he’s improved his PPG by over 0.2 of what he did during the season. Raise your expectations, his 52 points were no fluke.
Martin Straka really stepped up for the Penguins when Jaromir Jagr went down with an injury. His PPG has improved by 0.3, but the reason he’s listed here is because he should calm fantasy owners fears that he was having a fluke year.
Alexei Kovalev has nearly doubled his PPG from 0.69 to 1.25. His value will be increased and rightfully so, although expecting over a point per game during the season might be a bit much. Remember, Kovalev is known for having better stats in the post season, bid accordingly.
Up until this playoffs, the Detroit Red Wings’ Brendan Shanahan had put up uncharacteristically poor numbers during the last two regular seasons and last years playoffs. His PPG this season was a mere 0.72, but he’s raised that to 1.33 during the post season. In a keeper league lower his value, mostly due to his history of back problems.
Another Red Wing that will improve his value on your draft day is goalie Bill Ranford. He has, at least temporarily, taken over the starting job from Chris Osgood. More important is how good he’s looked doing it. Fantasy owners are not known for sentimentality on drafting players, so let someone else take him.
Joe Thornton has shown great improvement in his second season with the Boston Bruins. His 6 points in 7 playoff games should prove that he is on his way to being a legitimate offensive player for many years to come. His value increases dramatically in a keeper league.
Theo Fleury had proved this season that he is an elite scorer with 93 points in 75 games. He produced at a better PPG with Colorado than he did with Calgary, which is not a shock. He was tied for the league lead in playoff scoring with 12 points. Fleury should be rated in your top 10, especially if he stays with the Avalanche.
The Avalanches’ rookie duo of Milan Hejduk and Chris Drury, both up for the Calder Trophy, has had very different levels of success in the playoffs. Hejduk has been very good with 7 points in 8 games. His value in keeper leagues is much higher than in normal fantasy leagues.
Chris Drury has been the victim of the fact there is a lot less ice time to spread out amongst the non-star players. His 0 points in 8 games should be put in perspective, he will still be a good scorer in next years regular season. His value will probably go down, that should make him even more attractive to fantasy owners in keeper leagues.
Speaking of players that have decreased their value for next season by their poor performances during this years post season. Peter Forsberg has so far been a huge disappointment with only 9 points in 8 games. Pretty good numbers for most other players. The warning flag that has appeared is more due to his very undisciplined play. He has the talent to be fighting for the regular season scoring title, does he have the discipline?
The next time the Phoenix Coyotes’ Keith Tkachuk holds out, they should let him rot! He had another sub-par playoff, and once again didn’t lead his team out of the first round. Tkachuk will be more valuable to fantasy owners if he is moved, because his career and attitude have stagnated. Too bad he couldn’t follow Roenick’s example of how to lead a team.
Whether Red Wings’ goalie Chris Osgood has had his confidence shaken from not playing at least some of the playoff games is a mute point. His value will decrease, but he should still be rated in the top 10 for fantasy goalies. The one caveat is his long-term future in Detroit as it would not be a complete shock to see him moved.
Chris Chelios is still a very good defenseman, but as this years’ playoff and regular season are showing, he is no longer a top 10 fantasy defenseman. He will probably still be overrated next season, but be warned that Chelios is definitely on the downside. Even a long-term deal with Detroit will not hold back father time.
Another Red Wing defenseman that is finally showing his age is Larry Murphy. His poor production of 0 points in 6 playoff games is a harbinger of things to come. He still will be fairly effective defenseman if he stays with Detroit, but watch out if he gets moved. He had 53 points in 80 regular season games, draft him for 40 next year.
If you have or plan to have the Carolina Hurricanes’ Paul Coffey next season would you please join my fantasy league. Stick a fork in him, he is done. A poor playoff accompanied with a poor season should have scared off any fantasy owner that can afford a calendar. Not worth taking in any league!!!
A fantasy owner should always pay attention to playoff statistics, but be wary of how much weight you put on those stats during the following season’s fantasy draft. A great game or two can skew the numbers on a player that otherwise performed weakly. A player like Dallas Stars’ Mike Modano is showing he is more concerned with winning and being a leader than he is with his personal stats. So be careful not to put too much stock into next season.
Rumor mill: Apparently Robert Reichel has been offered a job with the Czech Republic’s national team. It is a very good possibility that he could eventually be in placed in charge. These types of jobs don’t appear very often, although it would be very hard to turn down the big contract he would be likely to receive by staying in the NHL.
May 19, 1999
The minors are not were most owners in fantasy hockey leagues scan for players that may help them. But for really deep leagues that require a lot of players being moved in and out of your starting roster, last seasons minor league players may be this seasons upcoming hidden gem. There are some forgotten players that can help fantasy owners for at least a few weeks or months and may end of helping the whole year.
Unlike baseball where the minor leagues are more respected, in hockey players are often discounted by fantasy owners because they’ve spent a lot of time in the AHL or IHL. Those players may now be ready to help a fantasy team. Many of these players will go back and forth from the big club to the minors, but for stretches can be quite useful. Remember with the Atlanta Thrashers expansion team joining the league for the 1999-2000 season there will be some jobs open.
On almost any other team Marc Denis would already be in the NHL. But he’s in the Avalanche organization and that means trying to get a job with a club that seems set with a great starter and dependable backup. He appeared in 52 games with Hershey (AHL). He had a 2.84 GAA and 20 wins. In four games with Colorado he had a very good 2.49 GAA and a .918 save percentage. Expect Denis to see close to 20 NHL games next season. In a keeper league it may be time to grab on to him before he’s playing regularly in the NHL.
Manny Fernandez will be one of the beneficiaries of the NHL expanding. He appeared in 50 games with Houston (IHL). He had a 2.36 GAA and 34 wins. In only one game with Dallas he only let in 2 goals very good .931 save percentage. Fernandez was the victim of the Stars having one of the best backups in the league in Roman Turek. However that spot should open up with the imminent departure of Turek to Atlanta.
Forward Randy Robitaille, who spent most of the season with Providence (AHL). He’s 23 years old and at 5’11" & 195lbs is big enough to compete for a job on the big club. He had 2 points in his 4 games with the Bruins, but was second in AHL scoring with 102 points. Watch closely to see if Robitaille is getting playing time in the preseason.
The Edmonton Oilers goalie Steve Passmore appeared in 54 games in the minors and had a 2.24 goals against average and 24 wins. In six games with Edmonton he had a good 2.82 GAA and a decent .907 save percentage. He was supplanted on the big club by the acquisition of Tommy Salo. Expect Passmore to have a reasonable shot of winning the back up role over Bob Essensa. He will get his chance of playing regularly in the NHL, hopefully next season.
Michel Riesen is another Edmonton Oilers’ prospect that has a lot of promise. He only had 23 points in 60 games with Hamilton (AHL) last season. But when and if this Swiss born player ever puts on some beef and fills out his career with the ‘big club’ will take off. Watch the preseason to see if he’s ready to compete in the NHL.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a great playoff run so far, but their future looks just as bright with a few unexpected farm hands filling in capably. Lonny Bohonos has scored everywhere he’s been except for the NHL. But he can be given a lot of credit for being the offensive spark the Leafs needed against Pittsburgh. He’s had 7 points in 5 playoff games, but more importantly has played very well along side Mats Sundin. He will only produce on the top line, so if it appears he will not be on the top line next season he’ll have little fantasy value!
Ladislav Kohn & Kevyn Adams are other Maple Leafs’ prospects that are promising and players too watch for if given a chance. Whether they get that chance in the upcoming season is another matter. Pat Quinn has proven that he is one of the best coaches in the league. But he is also loyal to his players, sometimes to a fault. So often rookies have a hard job winning a spot ahead of an incumbent veteran. If they do well in the rest of the playoffs and start well in the preseason, they may be worth a gamble.
The Philadelphia Flyers have proven that goaltending wins you games in the playoffs, unfortunately for their fans they’ve proven it also loses games then too. Expect either Jean-Marc Pelletier or Brian Boucher to finally put some youth in to the Flyers line-up. The odds on favorite to get to the big club first is Pelletier as he was the one called up this season to shake up the dreadful goaltending duo of Vanbiesbrouk and Hextall.
However the goalie with the best long-term future, should be Boucher if his knee problems rectify. The Flyers are a weird organization that should worry more about their goaltending and team speed, but they don’t. The preseason score sheets will tell you if they plan to finally give a young goalie a chance to apprentice for a number one job as a backup for a season or two.
The game is played at a much slower pace in the AHL and just because a player can put up big numbers in the minors does not necessarily transfer to the NHL. It’s akin to a player in baseball that has great stats in triple-A, but can’t hit a curve. A slow of foot player will not get the opportunities in the NHL. A player with second line scoring abilities but with fourth line skating abilities will usually not cut with the big club for very long.
Depending on the flexibility of your league call-ups can be quite useful, but if you’re in a league that allows very little movement then think twice.
May 26, 1999
All Statistics are good through games played May 24th.
The Detroit Red Wings reign as Stanley Cup Champions was officially brought to an end by the Colorado Avalanche. It was great while it lasted but now some questions will have to be answered. Should the Wings be dismantled because of four games in one series where they were utterly outclassed by a superior Colorado team? More importantly to fantasy owners is, if major changes are made, how are those changes going to affect individual players’ scoring? Also is it too early to panic or was the sole reason the Red Wings lost due mostly to goaltending?
There are players on Detroit that did not show up in the playoffs. It may be to early to panic on some of these players, but it must be disheartening for ownership to have tried to buy the Stanley Cup and have spent the money on the wrong players. A look at what to expect out of the players from the Red Wings for next year’s regular season.
Captain Steve Yzerman is still one of the best leaders in hockey and should take no blame for the wings not repeating. But he is 34 and has played an awful lot of hockey the last 3 seasons. A total of over 60 extra games when the Olympics and World Cup tournaments are added to the playoff games. He did have another good offensive year with 74 points in 80 regular season games and was the Wings best offensive player in the playoffs with 13 points in only 10 games. Yzerman has only missed an average of 4 games in his last 4 seasons. But is it realistic to think he will be able to keep up the pace at his age plus stay healthy, probably. If you’re in a keeper league get market value for him and trade him to get younger.
Superstar defenseman Niklas Lidstrom could arguably be called the Wings most valuable player. On a team that is starting to show major signs of wear and tear on their backend, Lidstrom is in the prime of his career at only 29 years old. With a total of 68 points in 91 playoff and regular season games combined, Lidstrom is easily a top-3 fantasy defenseman. The major question that remains is will he return to Sweden. Not winning the Stanley Cup this year may make it easier to leave Detroit. If he remains in Detroit, he’ll reward you by being one of the most dependable offensive defensemen around.
Forward Brendan Shanahan played much better in the playoffs than he did for three-quarters of the regular season. A 30yr old power forward that has had series of nagging injuries is a recipe for disaster for fantasy owners that need dependability. To his credit he only missed one game this season, but he should have rested a handful of others to regain his health. If Bowman returns it is unlikely that Shanahan will have much time left in the ‘Motor City’! He may have a quick start to the season, but it is best to trade him a.s.a.p., because the Wings will.
Russian enigma Sergei Fedorov has finally had a consistent season and playoffs for Detroit. Unfortunately for the Wings it was consistently mediocre. In the past the Red Wings could justify keeping one of the most overrated players in the league, because he was such a stand out in the playoffs. However with his disappearing act in this years’ playoffs, Fedorov has finally opened the door for the Wings to trade him. If he gets traded he may be worth a gamble, if not let someone else in your league have the headaches.
Forward Vyacheslav ‘Slava’ Kozlov had a horrible start to the season, but was able to salvage it with a great second half and finishing with a decent 58 points in 79 regular season games. He scored 6 goals in only 10 playoffs games, but added only 1 assist. It is unlikely that all three Russians will be back with Detroit. Although Kozlov has been inconsistent he is likely to return as left wingers that can chip in 29 goals during a bad season are few and far between in the NHL. Expect a better overall year next season and you should be rewarded with 65-70 points.
Defensemen Larry Murphy and Chris Chelios are 38 and 37yrs old respectively and both had poor to mediocre playoffs with a combined 6 points 20 games. If both players remain with the team for the upcoming season, count on both players numbers to be down significantly. Age has caught up with both players, but watch for Larry Murphy to show the bigger offensive decline. Both should be counted on to approach 35-40 points.
Aging forwards Wendel Clark and Igor Larionov had poor playoffs, although in at least Larionov’s case health was a concern. Clark had a very good regular season with Tampa Bay & Detroit and finished with a surprising 48 points in 77 games. Ageless Igor Larionov had an impressive 63 points in 75 regular season games. How long both have left is debatable, but one thing seems certain, both of these players are unlikely to as many games next season. Forecast both players playing 10 less games and producing at least as many points next season.
Three forwards that are likely to rebound next season are Darren McCarty, Tomas Holmstrom and Martin Lapointe. Missing 13 games and being inconsistent when he did play led to McCarty only getting 40 points this season. He is due to play more games and also be more consistent which should lead to an increase of 5-10 points next season.
Tomas Holmstrom did not carry over his impressive playoff performance from last season to this years regular season. He did however produce much better in the playoffs and is likely to be over his sophomore slump and rebound with 50 or more points.
If Martin Lapointe could play with more consistency in the offensive zone he could be a very good power forward, but even so he should still approach 35-40 points next season.
If you want to draft any of the following Red Wings please join my league. Doug Brown is 34yrs old and is a long shot to hit 30 points ever again. Forwards Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby and Joe Kocur have little to no offensive ability at any age. Defensemen Ulf Samuelsson, Jamie Macoun, Uwe Krupp and Todd Gill are unlikely to produce 50 points combined next season due to injury and age. At 25 & 26yrs old respectively forward Stacy Roest and defenseman Aaron Ward are unlikely to find enough quality playing time to put up a decent numbers this season. If and when spots open up and a new coaching philosophy takes over, watch for some youth to enter the lineup at the expense of some veterans.
There are so many questions when a team loses. It is important to not to overreact unless the circumstances call for it. Well I believe it does call for it. This team is an old team and old in too many key areas. There are so many questions and many of the answers will come before training camp in September. How long can Steve Yzerman lead this team by example before he just can’t do it any more? Will Scotty Bowman be back for another campaign, or should a fresher approach be started? The chances the Wings will go on a total rebuilding mode are slim as too much money is already invested in players like Yzerman and Chelios, but changes must be made for the good of the franchise’s future.
June 2, 1999
All Statistics are good through games played June 2nd.
In every sport there are players that were once stars, but have stayed too long. Unfortunately for some Fantasy owners they also live in the past. The big thing to remember about the players is that to remain in the NHL they must change their role. Often times they become checkers on the 3rd or 4th line. There are many examples of players staying too long, unfortunately with the salaries the players are making this problem will increase. A player like Paul Coffey who once scored an amazing 138 points would be a huge surprise to get 20.
The problem is magnified in keeper leagues when a fantasy owner is forced to select a player that is likely to get 25-30 points. The mistake the fantasy owner makes is not taking the no name player that has potential instead of the player that is living in the past.
Forward Ed Olczyk had 25 points in 61 games this season with Chicago and that is actually an improvement on his 22 points the year before. He seems for some reason to end up in the doghouse on many of his past teams. Being a 32yr old goal scorer without a lot of speed and playing on the 3rd or 4th line is not a recipe for success.
Benoit Hogue’s play was revitalized with the Dallas Stars after a late season trade from the hapless Tampa Bay Lightning. However it is unlikely that Hogue has any future with the Stars at 32yrs old. Coach Hitchcock is known for being very demanding on players and Hogue is known for giving even the most patient coach grey hair. He still has very good speed and when motivated can be quite affective. The problem is he is unlikely to stay motivated for any extended period of time. He may be worth a gamble as a late season fill in, but otherwise take a gamble on youth.
Stick a fork in the following players because they’re done and they’ve been done for a while! Sergei Nemchinov produced a meager 20 points in 77 games with a few different teams. Murray Craven ended up with 14 points in 43 games with the San Jose Sharks. The inspiring Tony Granato played in 35 games and had 12 points. Forward Paul Ysebaert had 1 point in 10 games and is as close to being done as any of the three mentioned above. All four of these players were average to above average fantasy players many seasons ago, but they should be retired from all fantasy leagues.
Johan Garpenlov and Kirk Muller of the Florida Panthers added very little scoring last season with 17 points in 64 games and 15 points in 82 games respectively. The numbers will likely not improve for either, although if you must take either go with Garpenlov who can still chip in with the odd goal.
Russ Courtnall is much like Benoit Hogue in that he still has very good speed, but he’ll give his coach and you headaches. He is not placed in key offensive situations like he had been in the past, which for a player that spends most of his time on the perimeter it makes it rather unlikely he will improve on his 19 points in 57 games this past season.
Michal Pivonka of the Washington Capitals recorded 81 points in only 73 games in 95-96. Since then he’s only produced 43 points in 123 games. He is injury prone and at 33yrs old will likely not rebound from bad seasons like he has in the past. If he plays he will improve on his 11 points in 36 games he had last season, but not enough to make him draftable. However of the players that are likely finished he is at least a gamble to recover some of his offensive glory days.
General Manager Brian Burke made very few moves with the Vancouver Canucks last season. Acquiring forwards Harry York and Trent Klatt were two of them. Both players are hard working team guys that would have trouble getting 35 points playing on the same line as Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne. Unfortunately for them the only Kariya on the Canucks is Paul’s brother Steve, an unproven rookie.
Another Canuck acquired by the Canucks last season was center Dave Gagner. On a team in desperate need of offensive centers, especially with Mark Messier on the limp, Gagner looked out of gas. The only caveat is that he does have a lot of heart and if given one more chance he may rebound from his 28 points in 69 games. If he is giving the number 2 center spot behind Messier he might recapture some offensive touch. Don’t count on it.
These following players may still have a little gas left in the tank! They are players that appear to be finished but due to circumstances they may just have a bit more than anyone expects.
Dave Andreychuk of the New Jersey Devils’ is a slow-footed 35yr old is close to being on the ‘stick-a-fork-he’s-done list’, but he still has some fantasy value to fantasy owners that need a bit of depth. He can still score as his 15 goals this season would attest, and there is no reason to expect if he’s able to play another 15 games he might hit the 40point mark. This past season he missed 30 games and that mostly accounted for his lowly total of 28 points.
The Carolina Hurricanes forward Martin Gelinas was part of the Keenan led purge of the Vancouver Canucks a few seasons ago. He was having a poor season then, but this past year it got worse with only 28 points in 76 games. He played mostly on a checking line and appeared to be playing like he was unhappy. This player could easily rebound, especially on another team, and pot 40 points if given half a chance.
Craig Janney is the NHL’s version of a leper, it seems no team can put up with his soft one-dimensional play for very long. He will likely be given another chance somewhere, but he is a huge gamble if your fantasy league does not allow a lot of roster flexibility. If however your league allows a lot of movement, then he could still be useful. He needs to get power play time and at least some time on the top two lines to be effective. Currently with the Islanders who waived him last season, don’t count on his 26 points in 56 games last season increasing if he returns, which is unlikely.
The Ottawa Senators picked up Ted Donato near the trade deadline to give them a bit more scoring depth for the playoffs. The Buffalo Sabres swept the Senators with relative ease in the first round of the playoffs. Donato was unhappy in Boston and requested a trade, it will be interesting to see if he’ll be any happier in Ottawa. He recorded 27 points in 82 games which does not tend to excite many teams given he is a smallish forward. If given opportunities he may pick his pace up a bit to a slightly more respectable 35-40 points.
Many players today do not retire with the grace and class of Wayne Gretzky, who proved once again why he’s the greatest player of any sport ever! At best some players retire after two or three seasons of mediocrity tarnishing most fans memories of that player’s previous skill. Unfortunately nowadays most players only leave when they are told that their services are no longer wanted or needed.
The following players were great in their prime but stayed to long and had a very forgettable last season to their career. Darryl Sittler had 27 points in 61 games, which is a shame for the player that still holds the record for points in one game with 10! Jari Kurri was one the greatest forwards in NHL history and still is beloved back in his home country of Finland. But with only 22 points in his last 70 games it does tend to make people forget how great a player he truly was. Don’t get caught hanging on to a player to long, in fantasy hockey there is little room for loyalty!
June 9, 1999
All
Statistics are good as of games played June 9th.
The
Stanley Cup finals are here but lets take a look back at some of the players
that distinguished themselves during the previous three rounds.
Experienced fantasy owners know not to put too much stock in a player’s
playoff statistics when figuring out how much value on that same player during
the following regular season. There
are few players that produce at the same points-per-game pace in the playoffs
they did in the regular season.
The
Boston Bruins’ Sergei Samsonov was a victim of high expectations and the
dreaded sophomore jinx this season. Unlike
the year before when he easily outshone his rookie teammate Joe Thornton, his
regular season numbers improved only slightly to 51 points in 79 games.
While that was a bit disappointing due mostly to expectations, his
playoff production of 4 points in 11 games must be looked at as a failure.
If he doesn’t have a good start to the next season, his tough-guy coach
will quickly lose faith in him. Don’t
give up on him and hope the playoffs were just an aberration.
For
all the abuse that the Blues’ Pavol Demitra and the Bruins’ Jason Allison
took for their production in the playoffs you would have thought that they were
the sole reasons that their respective teams did not win the Stanley Cup.
Demitra had 9 points in 13 playoff games while Allison had 11 points in
12 playoff games. Both are star players in their prime and should not lose any
value in the upcoming season. Their
playoffs may have tempered some fantasy owners opinion of them, but don’t let
it temper yours! One comment
regarding the Bruins Harry Sinden, who was the one of Allison’s harshest
critics, now I know why some animals eat their young!
Matthew
Barnaby of the Pittsburgh Penguins had 0 points in 13 playoff games, which
should lower his value in any fantasy league to that of the microscopic variety!
That may not be quite fair for a player that has the talent to chip in 40
plus points on the right line and as long as he can keep his focus.
The
Toronto Maple Leafs’ talented but troubled Bryan Berard is starting to prove
he may still become one of the elite defensemen in the National Hockey League.
He had 9 points in 17 playoff games, although he was an uncomfortable
-10. If you’re looking for the
next big offensive defenseman that may still be reasonably affordable, grab
Berard. In a keeper league he’ll
be even more valuable, so even though his playoff will cost you extra at the
draft table his value to your team will make up for it.
It
is true that Steve Thomas of the Leaf’s did not have the kind of playoff that
he or the team would have liked with only 9 points in 17 games.
However he was playing with so much pain that it is truly incredible that
he played the last few games at all! But
putting sentimentality aside and just looking at the 1963 on his birth
certificate, should dissuade fantasy owners of putting too much faith in the 73
points in 78 regular season games he had this year.
Bill
Ranford started off well in his first two games of the playoffs, but performed
so dismally in his last two that any interest that may have been generated is
long gone! Who knows where or if
he’ll be able to continue his NHL career next season. One of the best goalies of the late 80’s early 90’s may
be done.
The
Colorado Avalanche’s Drury had been the victim of not being on one of the top
two lines and leaving him pointless in his first 8 games.
He did finish strong with 8 points in his final 11 games, including 6
goals! By Drury finishing strong it
will make a lot of fantasy owners much more comfortable on drafting him.
He also may have what it takes to become a number two center on Colorado
after Joe Sakic has proved he is mortal at playoff time.
Drury will be very valuable in any fantasy league, but if you’re in a
‘keeper’ league he should be even that much more valuable.
Joe
Sakic the captain of the Colorado Avalanche had a very disappointing playoff
with an un-Sakic like 19 points in 19 games.
But more importantly, buy not having as good of a playoff as he has had
in the past, he may have unwittingly opened the door to a trade.
General Manager Pierre Lacroix may feel that he has a good enough second
line center in Drury and if he wants to keep a big ticket item like Fleury he
may feel the need to move Sakic to the Rangers or any one else that may want a
marquee name! It is unlikely that
if Sakic is moved that his value will increase in fantasy leagues.
In fact Sakic has peaked and is now on the decline, although that
doesn’t mean he is not still a star!
Valeri
Kamensky will most likely not be back with the Avalanche next season, but
don’t shed any tears for him. After
providing a spark to Colorado in his return to the lineup during the playoffs,
it may have peaked a few more teams interest in him.
He will cash in on his 9 points in 10 playoff games, but should you
overestimate him you may be the one sorry.
He had 44 points in 65 games this season and at 33yrs old he is
definitely past his prime. Let
someone else overbid for him.
A
player’s playoff statistics becomes more useful the longer he plays, because
it gives you more data when placing a value on a player. The playoffs should be used but not abused when placing a
regular season value on players. The
regular season value of a player that is not able to raise the level of his game
in the more intense postseason often is not negatively affected by it.
A great example of not letting a player’s poor playoff showing affect your perception of his fantasy value is Keith Tkachuk. Tkachuk’s playoff production is at best mediocre whereas his regular season production is very good. In fact statistically the numbers do not compare. In his last 4 seasons his PPG at playoff time is 0.73, while his regular season numbers are averaging 1.08! Remember it is FANTASY hockey, building a roster full of hard workers that perform great in the playoffs has nothing to do with winning your fantasy league!