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Pics & Pans I (by Bill Mahoney)
September 4, 1999
We at Mr. Shark's would like to welcome Bill Mahoney to our staff of fine writers, this is his very first article.
Well, here it is my premier article of fantasy hockey prediction. Mr. Shark has been so kind to lend me space on his terrific site to share my thoughts, predictions, humor and love of fantasy hockey with you. I ask only that you read and once you read, feel free to share your opinions with me. (I have thick skin, I can take it, I swear.) I’ve even created an email address for you, the fantasy hockey fan to give me your input (fantasyhockey@home.com) Feel free to take me to task, tell me I’m wrong, tell me I’m right or ask my thoughts on that trade you want to make or that Free Agent you want to pick up. I’ll give you my input, for whatever it’s worth.
The first column this year will be simple. I’ll go team by team and tell you who I think is likely to surpass last years totals and in part 2, who is not likely to find the back of the net as often as in years past. I’ll share my successful picks and the ones that made me pull my hair out. Like I said before, send any and all feedback…we’ll debate endlessly.
We’ll call this premier column “PICKS AND PANS”
Matt Cullen- A nice year for the Duck center who played well late. He’ll get more time on the PP and will play with better players around him than most of last year. If Hartsburg decides to break up the Kariya-Selanne duo, Cullen could increase last year’s total by 10 pts. 53 PTS
Notes- Rookie Maxim Balmochnykh may be worth a late pick. His total should be in the 35-point range if he stays up all year. By the way, wasn’t the main attraction in the Selanne trade years back Oleg Tverdovsky? Thought so…
Nelson Emerson-Even though Emerson had a nice year last year, he’ll see lots of ice time for the Thrashers and should be this year’s version of Nashville’s Greg Johnson. 55 pts.
Matt Johnson- For those of you in leagues that count PIM’s, Johnson will be the Thrashers solider to protect Patrik Stefan. 681 PIM’s in 182 NHL games. 230 PIMS
Notes- This team has very solid goaltending in Damien Rhodes and Norm Maracle. GAA should be good, even though wins will be scarce.
Anson Carter- This former Spartan (MSU) injury shortened campaign resulted in a 24-goal season, which prorated over a full campaign equals 36 goals. While I don’t think he’ll reach 36 goals, this hard worker should see time with Jason Allison on the top line with the departure of Khristich. He’ll get more PP time too, not many players were hotter at the end of the season than this guy. 55 PTS and 30 goals.
Joe Thornton- The former #1 pick had a 35 pt increase in production to 41 pts last year. Some predictions have him jumping nearly that much again this year, but I don’t agree. However, with another year under his belt and 21 pts in his last 27 games leads me to believe he’ll continue to move up the food chain. Pick him for 55 pts and hope for more. 57 PTS
Notes- A club on the rise, expect improvement from Sergei Samsonov after a terrible end to the season and Jason Allison who has solidified himself as a top 15 scorer in the NHL.
Michael Peca- Fans have to love the way this guy plays. He hits, plays big, plays hurt, plays shorthanded, is a great leader and is fearless. As he continues to grow in stature in the NHL, so will his offensive game. 65 PTS
Stu Barnes- This PP specialist struggled initially after the trade that brought him to Buffalo, but played well in the playoffs. He’ll be more comfortable after some time in the Buffalo defensive system and will return to form. 50 pts.
Notes- Everyone keeps waiting for Geoff Sanderson to break out of this slump. Carolina and Vancouver got tired of waiting. Don’t take him expecting the 40 goal days.
Jarome Iginla- Someone is going to take up the burden of the loss of Fleury, the best bet is this guy. Traded to Calgary for Joe Nieuwendyk, great things have been expected. This year may be the time for him to prove his worth. 60 pts with 30 goals.
Hnat Domenichelli- The much-maligned prospect spent most of last year in the minors, to his dismay. When he got out of Coach Sutter’s doghouse late in the year, he finished strong. Has posted some impressive junior numbers and with the relative lack of offensive threats in Calgary, should get some ice time this year. 40 pts.
Carolina
Hurricanes
Ron Francis- While I didn’t expect his point-per-game pace to continue in Carolina, everyone was surprised by the amount of the drop off in this guy’s point total. He’s probably one of the most underrated players of all time, sitting 9th on the all time scoring list. He had 36 pts in the 2nd half last year (41 games) which makes me believe he has settled in. 70 pts.
Jeff O’Neill- My brother in law will barf when he reads this as he took this underachiever last year. Only 23 years old, this guy is has been perpetually listed as a sleeper pick for the last 3 years or so. Carolina is waiting to see if the results will ever match the hype, as they only gave him a one-year deal. This is his last chance; I think this may be the “breakout” year. 45 pts.
Chicago
Blackhawks
Doug Gilmour- You will read that his best days are behind him, that he’s about done. I haven’t thrown the dirt on his grave yet. He had 27 pts in the 31 2nd half games he did play despite a bulging disk in his back that resulted in season ending surgery. Look for a return to “Killer” form 68 pts.
Eric Daze- The change in coaching woke Daze up as he looked like the player that scored 55 pts two years ago. With 20 points in the last 20 games, he’s on the right track. He’ll be well undervalued, a real sleeper pick. 50 pts
Notes—This team had such a sad year that many players will see improved season. Look for Joseph Marha, Jean-Pierre Dumont and Anders Eriksson to all break out this year. Dumont may be one of the top 4 or 5 sleepers in the draft, he could total close to 50 points.
Colorado
Avalanche
Chris Drury- The former Little League World Series star had a very successful rookie campaign and will look to avoid the sophomore jinx. That is not likely to happen, as he will spend the year with increased ice time at center due to the Forsberg injury. Should easily eclipse last year’s point total 60 pts
Sandis Ozolinsh- Played like a fiend after a contract holdout that lasted until January. In the playoffs, was like a 4th forward on offense, never hesitating to dash into opponents’ zones at the slightest hint of an opening. Harry Neale referred to him more than once, as a “riverboat gambler” Could be the top defensive scorer this year. 57 pts.
Notes- Claude Lemieux looked bored last year and didn’t even play well in the playoffs, which makes you wonder if time has taken its toll. Milan Hejduk looks like a legitimate scorer in this league. On Forsberg, take his PPG average last year of 1.3 and multiply that by how many games you guess he’ll play. That will give you his points for the year or a guess thereof.
Dallas Stars
Jamie Langenbrunner- One of the best players in this year’s playoff run, Langenbrunner looked pretty mediocre in the regular season. If Nieuwendyk stays healthy, this could be this guy’s breakout year. 58 pts.
Joe Nieuwendyk- You’ll notice I don’t recommend many players who seem to suffer from injury problems, but this guy has an amazing scoring touch. Has missed 40 games over the last 3 years, but was dominant in the playoffs. Read the pre season reports, if he’s healthy, 70 pts is not out of the question.
Notes- While Mike Modano possesses the talent to be a 100-point scorer; the system in Dallas doesn’t allow it to happen. Take him for 80 points and be comfortable in knowing he’ll get there.
Sergei
Fedorov- One of the unwritten stories the last few years about the Red
Wings has been what a waste of talent Sergei Fedorov has been. He was on
fire in the last quarter of the season only to be held to one goal in the
playoffs (10 games) Constantly crabbing for more ice time, Fedorov
continues to not only disappoint Red Wing fans, but fantasy folk as well.
Ok, so why do I think he’s a good pick? He’s more likely to see more
ice time this year as Bowman retools. He’s also a part of the best
offense in hockey. Look for a point a game average. 82 pts.
Tomas Holmstrom- After the 2nd cup run in ’98, many thought Holmstrom would be a 40 pts, 20-goal scorer in 1999, but he only got to 34 pts. Keep in mind, this guy probably had at least 5 goals called back due to the stupid crease rule. With that in his favor this year, this guy is about to become the newest version of Dino Ciccarelli. 45 pts
Notes- Look for Chris Chelios to have a typical 45-50 pt season.
Edmonton
Oilers
Doug Weight- Most fantasy owners will not forget about this point per game machine, but he’s worth mentioning as a comeback of the year player. Should help the PP and make Ryan Smyth the type of player we remember from a few years ago. 78 pts
Ryan Smyth- While his totals of his rookie season won’t be repeated, it’s hard to see how he won’t hit 20 goals if he plays with Weight. A terror on the PP, he was great in the Edmonton short playoff run. 45 pts
Notes- Look for Roman Hamrlik to increase last year’s total with the departure of Bo Mironov, the ice time should increase and the responsibility to help this team offensively. 45 pts.
Florida Panthers-
Victor Kozlov- Should be the point man for Bure this year and will be given every chance to succeed. Had a career high in points despite missing almost a quarter of the season. A quantum leap is possible, but not probable. Pick him for 60 pts and hope Bure makes him look great.
Radek Dvorak- One of the league’s most consistent short-handed threats, Dvorak was the man in Florida from March on. He’s only 22 and should only improve. A great pick if you get extra points for SH goals. 54 pts
Peter Worrell- Both from a PIM and point perspective, this Panther improved after a mid season minor league stint. One of the toughest bastards in the league, he could wear the PIM crown, but also should score 15-20 pts
Notes- Bure obviously will make Florida much more interesting to watch. Count on him for 50 goals and 85 pts this year.
Los Angeles Kings
Ziggy Palffy- With Stumpel as his point man and other decent offensive weapons around him, Palffy will flourish in the relative sanity of LA. There is no reason to think that 50 goals or 90+ points should be expected from the talented Slovak.
Jozef Stumpel- Like Victor Kozlov, this guy will benefit from the arrival of a superstar. Injuries ruined this center’s year, but 75 points should be expected if healthy. He’s scored that much before not having anyone like Palffy by his side. 78 pts.
Brian Smolinski- One would think this former 1st round pick has run out of lives, but could find himself between Donald Audette and Glen Murray, two guys who know where the puck goes. 50 points won’t be a surprise to me. 48 pts.
Notes- If Rob Blake can stay healthy, numbers like his Norris Trophy season aren’t a stretch. The PP alone should be so much better.
Saku Koivu- Since he’s the only scorer left in Montreal, you may as well take him, brittle or not. He’ll see plenty of ice time and will draw lots of attention from the opposition. Figure him for 65 games at point per game pace. 65 pts
Martin Rucinsky- This guy was terrible after his holdout and had a decrease of 19 pts last year. However, he’ll probably see 1st line duty as there really isn’t anyone who can score here. 55 pts isn’t out of the question, he’s done it before.
Notes- Not a team with a lot of fantasy potential. Vladimir Malakhov is a constant underachiever and Trevor Linden will provide leadership, but not big scoring.
Nashville Predators
Ville Peltonen- Another guy to check the injury reports on as the season nears. If healthy, this guy is probably the most talented offensive Predator. Should be a deep sleeper, but you’ll want to have other reliable people in your lineup. 45 pts.
David
Legwand- For all purposes, his rookie year.
He may be forgotten in your pool, but he was the 2nd pick 2
years ago. Was spectacular in
Plymouth with 89 pts in 55 games. The
center of the future in Nashville. 35 pts
New
Jersey Devils
Petr Sykora- A star in the making, this guy was terrific when moved to a line with Patrick Elias and Jason Arnott. The scoring touch is there to keep the upward movement in points going if this line clicks again. Will see even more ice time and seems to work better on right wing. A breakout year. 79 pts.
Brendan Morrison- The former UM star was more than adequate despite very limited playing time and some less than stellar linemates. Had he gotten the ice time like Drury, the Calder may have been his. A natural scorer with a nose for the net, he’ll make an even stronger move this year. 64 pts.
Notes- Jason Arnott and Patrick Elias should continue to improve with Sykora. Expect 5-10 point increases for each.
Olli Jokinen- By default, because he’s the only one with talent that is ready today. He’ll double last year’s point total due to lots of ice time and sophomore improvement. It’s too bad he has to play here. 45 pts.
Jorgen Jonsson- Kenny’s brother, and one of Europe’s top players from a year ago. Again, because he’s got talent, he’ll score some here in this disaster. Should see top line duties. 40 pts.
Notes- If you are in a league that counts +/-, steer clear of these guys.
Petr Nedved- The much-maligned Czech settled in nicely after his holdout. This summer’s spending spree should help his numbers rocket back toward 85-90 pts. Will fit well with Kamensky’s skill or Theo Fleury’s intensity. A talented guy. 87pts
Valeri Kamensky- $14 million for 4 years and the guy had 14 goals last year. However, he’s a legitimate goal scorer in the league and was a difference maker after his return to the Colorado lineup against my Red Wings. Understand this if you take him, you’re likely to ensure some scoreless slumps. Then again, the goals can come in bunches. 59 pts.
Notes- Can anyone out there believe I got Theo Fleury with the 29th pick in our draft last year? Expect a repeat performance of last year’s 90 pts.
Marian Hossa- Perhaps the #1 sleeper in this year’s draft, the talented Senator should come to life further with a breakout performance. Destined to start this year on Yashin’s wing, his overall total could be diminished by Yashin’s holdout antics. Still, some one will score on this well coached team and my bet is with Hossa rather than some of the rest of these guys. 53 pts
Andreas Dackell- Again, if Yashin holds out, this could be a problem. Plays tough and good both ways and should benefit from another year in the Ottawa system. 54 pts.
Notes- This Yashin thing looks ugly. Season ticket holders suing players, teams drawing a line in the sand. I’m not sure Ottawa would trade him right away, ala Fedorov. Keep your eyes on the papers; this is a top 10 pick we are talking about. Sami Salo should also see more PP time.
Philadelphia Flyers
Eric Lindros- Only averages 68 games per year in his career but has 600 points in 431 NHL games. The lung injury he had last year was scary, but so was the hit he put on Ottawa’s Dackell. An immense talent, he responded to Bobby Clarke’s challenge in the press and played like an MVP candidate for most of the year. Don’t fret over the injuries; he’s a top 5 pick. 113 pts.
Mark Recchi- The Cal Ripken of the NHL had his injury luck run out last year and missed some games, resulting in a lower than usual 53 pts. He’s one of those guys I refer to as a point machine and there’s no reason to think playing in this high-powered offense that the totals will rise. 73 pts.
Phoenix Coyotes-
Daniel Briere- Should see increased ice time as Phoenix has said goodbye to the malcontent Robert Reichel. Will get a much better chance under Coach Smith than he did last year. A dramatic improvement
40 pts.
Keith Tkachuk- The prototypical power forward went through a tough stretch in January, yet still posted point per game numbers. In fact, he only had one goal in a 15 game stretch. That kept him out of the goals scoring chase. If you count PIM’s in your league, he’s infinitely valuable. Look for numbers of years past. 84 pts
Notes- Look for the highly underrated Teppo Numminen to step forward offensively with the departure of Tverdovsky. 45 pts
Pittsburgh Penguins
Alexei Kovalev- Constantly underachieving, this guy has been a fantasy nightmare for many owners who drafted his potential year after year. He looked much better after escaping the bright glare of the New York media and fans. Like Kamensky and S. Kozlov, draft him knowing you may go through dry spells. 60 pts
Jan Hrdina- He came up from the minors and looked great alongside Jagr (who wouldn’t) After one season under his belt, he should be infinitely more comfortable. A solid pick on draft day. 57 pts.
St. Louis Blues
Pierre Turgeon- Another point machine, this guy proved his worth to St. Louis after winning an arbitration case last year. Once panned as a playoff disaster, he was spectacular in the Phoenix series. Has had 2 lengthy injuries the last 2 years, but I wouldn’t consider him injury prone yet. Pick him and watch the points roll up. 85 pts.
Geoff Courtnall- Yes, he’s old and yes he’s banged up. But two years ago this guy had a 60+-point campaign and is one of the toughest guys you’d play against. He won’t get back to 60 points, but could be had cheap on draft day. 48 pts.
San Jose Sharks
This team has more than its share of players with upside, but Patrick Marleau is the one I’ll mention most. A star in the making and only 20 yrs old, his 2nd half was 30 points in 41 games. He’ll continue the trend this year and can be had cheaper in your draft than he should be. In my mind, he’s better than Thornton. 60 pts.
Jeff Friesen- Friesen has publicly stated that playing a full year with Vinny Damphousse will net the talented Shark 40 goals. The leading scorer in San Jose history, he’s only 23; he’ll rebound from a disappointing season last year. A legitimate SH threat as well. 73 pts
Vincent Damphousse- Scored at a point per game pace after escaping the fire sale in Montreal. Will be a steadying influence on the youngsters. Remember, Vinny’s a really slow starter. Stick with him and don’t panic early. 73 pts.
Notes- Look for 55 points for Alex Korolyuk, 40 for Gary Suter and 48 for Marco Sturm. A scary team in the West, especially with Mike Vernon’s playoff heroics in the past.
Chris Gratton- Only because he’s the best of this bunch and the pressure should be off compared to when he was in Philly. Can you believe this hulk only scored 8 goals last year? Could be had extremely cheap on draft day. 52 pts.
Vincent Lecavalier- The future of the franchise will only get better as shrewd GM Rick Dudley will the OK from Detroit Pistons owner Bill Davidson to spend $$ where necessary to get more talent around the former #1 pick. No sophomore jinx here. 53 pts
Alyn McCauley- I must admit, my friend Ron Jones (aka Mr. Shark) turned me on to this guy and upon further research, I’ll say this. The guy is a legitimate sleeper in this year’s pools, injury bug aside. If he’s healthy, could see more PP time and better linemates. Doubling last year’s production shouldn’t be difficult. 46 pts
Mike Johnson- The former CCHA scoring champ is bound to hit the 25-goal mark soon, this may be the year. Good pick if you’ve got a solid lineup when you get to the 35 pt players. 47 pts.
Mark Messier- Injuries and the Bure fiasco led to a poor season for the Moose. He should bounce back under Marc Crawford and be the leader of this team. Expect slightly less than a point per game. 71 pts.
Andrew Cassels- Always a solid bet for 55-60 points, this former Flame had a down year when moved off the Fleury line. He’ll get plenty of ice time here and will return to normal Cassels form. 57 pts
Notes- Steve Kariya should see ice time and while he’s not his brother; he’ll be solid in his rookie year. 39 pts.
Washington Capitals
Peter Bondra- Only played 66 games last year and was not a factor as this team never found his way. Too good of a goal scorer and SH threat to not be a valuable player in your fantasy league this year. Could be had later than normal. 76 pts and 45 goals
Adam Oates- Suffered along with every other Caps player in their horrible year. Still one of the top playmakers in the league, he’ll post numbers in the mid 70’s 76 pts.
Here’s hoping all of you succeed on draft day! Send any comments or questions to fantasyhockey@home.com
PICS & PANS part II (by Bill Mahoney)
September 4, 1999
Fredrik Olausson-
Made the most of quarterbacking the best PP in the NHL last year.
Keep in mind however, he had only one season previous to this with 50 +
pts. With the arrival of offensive
whiz Tverdovsky, he’ll be hard pressed to repeat last year’s effort.
45 PTS
Martin Gelinas-
Last year was about as bad as it could get for Gelinas, however I don’t
think a dramatic awakening is happening. Let
someone else hope he turns it around.
25 pts.
Brett Hull- Don’t expect numbers from Hull like he has put up in the past, the system in Dallas won’t allow it. Hull did show more guts that I ever gave him credit for in the Finals and was willing to change his game for the sake of the team system In fantasy hockey, that usually means a point decrease. He won’t go much higher than last year, if at all. 59 pts.
Brendan Shanahan- Three years ago, this rugged winger changed the way the Red Wings were perceived around the league and was fantastic. Since then, one could argue that Carolina/Hartford got the better of the Shanahan-Primeau trade. Last year was even more disappointing as Shanny started off great, with 12 goals in the 1st 20 games, but only had 19 in the next 61 and was really invisible in the physical game as well. If Bowman had his way last year, Shanny would be in Phoenix, with Jeremy Roenick having come to Detroit. He’s in a contract year, which means that he should play better and earn the 6-7 million he’s likely going to want. I’m not sure it will happen and he may end up getting traded. 62 pts
Bill Guerin- Common sense would tell you that Doug Weight coming back would have helped Guerin, but the opposite was true. Guerin disappeared in the 2nd half last year. I’d bet he ends up closer to the 55 pts mark next year. 55 pts.
Rob Niedermayer- Undoubtedly, some preseason magazine will hype this as a breakout year for Niedermayer. Don’t believe the hype. Besides being injury prone, Niedermayer has a tendency to disappear for long stretches. I’ve had him 2 of the last 3 seasons and have ended up with some grey hair from him. I told my brother in law to punch me on draft day if I take him again. 43 pts.
Luc Robitaille-
What a great year for Luc, who proved he still had it last year.
However, matching that again this year will be unlikely. He’ll see passes
that went his way last year go to Ziggy and
that will result in a slight downturn.
63 pts with 30 goals
Randy McKay-
This tough guy has always carried a nice scoring touch, but last year
appeared to put him on the down slope. Too
many collisions as part of the famed Crash Line have taken its toll.
35 pts.
Kevin Stevens- Once a premier power forward in the league, Stevens appeared somewhat rejuvenated last year and played well. With the influx of talent to the Garden this year, his ice time should be reduced, as will his points. 30 pts
Shawn McEachern-
Stands to lose the most by Yashin’s holdout.
He will be closely watched with out Yashin by his side by opposing
defenses. There are more reliable 55 point players out there.
48 pts.
Keith Jones-
It pains me to say this as I was at WMU when this guy was a star.
He had a terrific season as a Flyer and paired well with LeClair and
Lindros. However, I don’t think
he’ll see as much time with the big 2 as you could see Mikael Renberg back
with the Legion of Doom, or even Recchi. Don’t
expect a repeat, especially if he plays with guys like Langkow and Zelepukin.
40 pts
Rick Tocchet- Slowing by the day, I was shocked he got to 56 pts last year and is still a physical force when his body lets him. However, injury and age make him a question mark at best. There are more reliable 55 point players out there. 43 pts
Matthew Barnaby- Fantasy owners who count PIM’s loved this guy, but a 120 PIM drop is not what you want to see. Banished from Buffalo because of his lack of self control and constant running of his mouth, Barnaby didn’t have much impact in Pittsburgh. 15 pts and 170 PIM
Pavol Demitra- I was proven wrong last year by this talented Slovak, he was taken very early in our draft and I was vocal about how I thought it was a bad pick at the time. His continued success didn’t shut me up either until late in the year, when it showed he was very, very good. Then why in the Pans area you ask? Just a feeling on my part. It won’t be a huge reduction, but there are more proven, consistent, 85 pts scorers. 76 pts
Alexander Daigle-
Can anyone think of a bigger bust of a #1 pick overall?
This bum has had numerous chances with clubs and has only failed.
I had him last year when I thought the high powered Philly offense would
make the most of his ability. Don’t
even consider him. 21
pts
Steve Thomas- The scoring touch was back as Thomas prospered along side the captain. However, there are too many young guns on this team and his ice time may be reduced. I expect the Thomas of 2 years ago to be back. 57 pts
Alexander Mogilny-
He may improve on the 45 pts of last year but it’s always something
with this guy. Holdouts, injuries,
floating through games, etc. Let
him be someone else’s headache, there will be some owner in your league who
remembers the 76 goal season and think he could do it again.
NEWSFLASH- He won’t.
52 pts.
Sergei Gonchar-
I’ll be shocked if this guy scores 15 goals this year, let alone the 21
he did last year. He’s an
iffy prospect at best. 14
goals and 41 pts.
Feel free to send me your comments, questions and thoughts. I’ll love to talk fantasy hockey with you all year long. Send email to fantasyhockey@home.com. Looking forward to your responses.
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