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January 20th, 1999
The National Hockey League is heading in to the all-star weekend and for most players it will be a mini-holiday where they can recharge their batteries for the grind of a long season. But for two types of players the small time off will not be enough to regain their early season form.
For first year players that have come out of College or the European leagues the 82 game schedule takes a few seasons of adjusting! These players usually hit the "wall" between game 40 & game 60. This is not a coincidence, as this just happens to be the amount of games they are used to playing in their old leagues.
We will take a look at the 1st year players that should hit the wall this season and hopefully give you enough time to unload the player before it’s obvious to everyone in your Fantasy hockey league.
All statistics are as of games played through January 18th.
Bill Muckalt of the Vancouver Canucks is in first place in rookie scoring and has been the model of consistency this year never going more than 4 games without recording a point. Muckalt has 27 points in 44 games and so far is showing few signs of slowing down. But with the Canucks getting healthy and the acquisition of Dave Gagner in the Bure trade he may see more time on the third line.
Chris Drury of the Colorado Avalanche is second in rookie scoring with 21 points in 40 games played. He is on a team with a ton of experienced offensive talent and should see his ice-time drastically reduced as the Avalanche make a push to move up in the Western Conference.
Milan Hejduk is another Colorado Avalanche 1st year player, but he played in the Czech elite league last season. Even though he’s 4th in rookie scoring it is obvious he has already hit the wall and will probably only have sporadic flashes of offense the rest of the year. He has a respectable 19 points in 43 games, but Fantasy owners would be wise to replace him as soon as possible.
Toronto Maple Leaf’s have received surprising production from their rookie Czech defenseman Tomas Kaberle. He is 6th in overall rookie scoring and is 1st amongst 1st year defensemen with 17 points in 40 games. But with the recent acquisition of offensive defenseman Bryan Berard he will still be worth keeping but expect Kaberle’s pace to slow.
The Pittsburgh Penguin’s Jan Hrdina is another 1st year Czech that is having a decent start with 16 points in 40 games landing him 8th in rookie scoring. He will be less a victim of getting run down from a long season but more a victim of being similar in style to many of the players on the Penguins. He should be slow the rest of the year unless injuries to teammates move him up the depth chart.
Oleg Kvasha of the Florida Panthers has not looked as flashy as his 1st year teammate Mark Parrish. But unlike Parrish he is in no danger of seeing any time in the minors. He is currently 11th with 13 points in 39 games and is not likely to avoid slumping offensively even more this season. The one caveat is if the rumor of Kvasha lining up with Pavel Bure comes to fruition then he may finish strongly.
The Los Angeles King’s Pavel Rosa did not play in Europe or in college last season he played in the IHL. So why should he be listed as a player that will tire during a long NHL season? The reason is he only played two games due to suffering from post-concussion syndrome. That kind of injury limits a player physical activity. Rosa has played well in limited action producing 10 points in 14 games for 15th in rookie scoring, but he is the beneficiary of some injuries to important Kings and should cut his production with their return.
Tom Poti 1st year defenseman for the Edmonton Oilers has played very well so far this year. He’s got good size but with the depth on defense the Oilers possess, especially offensive defenseman, his ice time will be limited. He is currently tied for 16th in rookie scoring with 10 points in 38 games.
Marty Reasoner left college early to join the St. Louis Blues. He is tied for 16th in rookie scoring and with 10 points in only 22 games is on a good pace. But he’s already seen time in the minors this season and as players like Geoff Coutnall and Pierre Turgeon return he will spend more time there, so be very wary of Reasoner this season.
Los Angeles King’s Olli Jokinen appeared ready to move to the next level this season after another season in Europe last season and a very good start with the Kings this season. He is currently tied for 19th in first year scoring but has only 1 point in his past 15 games. With the gradual return to form of top center Jozef Stumpel, quality ice time has been hard to come by. Expect more of the same for Jokinen this season as his offensive slump continues.
Good things were expected from the Anaheim Mighty Duck’s rookie Swede Johan Davidsson this season. He is a center that plays with finesse, but he has been slow to acclimatize himself to the North American style. He is 25th in rookie scoring with and has give little reason for Fantasy owners to believe that he will be anything but a non-factor the rest of the season.
Anaheim Mighty Duck’s Finnish forward Antti Aalto did play in the minors last season but like the King’s Pavel Rosa saw limited ice due to a severe season ending injury after only 30 games. This season he is tied for 25th with 7 points after 40 games. He will probably see limited time and spend time in the pressbox.
It should be no surprise to any Fantasy owner that the players listed above would have growing pains in their first season in the National Hockey League. They have gone from leagues where they were playing nearly half the amount of games with more rest in between each game. They also were playing against much slower, physically weaker and less talented opposition than they are now. Combine all those things and you have the rare player that can overcome the huge obstacle and be productive in his first season.
This is why the players from Major Junior Hockey usually step in easier, because except for an increase in skill level, they are playing a style of hockey that is the most similar to what they will have to play in the NHL.
Two other rookies that have already started to fade but for different reasons than being tired from a long season are Florida’s Mark Parrish and Chicago’s Mike Maneluk.
Mark Parrish has just stop scoring and even though he is in the top 5 in first year scoring with 18 points in 36 games, he has been a healthy scratch a lot recently. He will soon be sent to the minors and will not likely see much playing time with the Panthers the rest of this season.
Mike Maneluk was cooled off a long time before Parrish started to fade. He is currently tied for 10th in rookie scoring but will continue to fade. If you do have him, dump him immediately, as he will be no help the rest of the year.
Generally the first year players from Europe tend to pull out of mid season slumps more easily than College players do. They are more prepared for the skill of the NHL, and if they can build their strength up tend to rebound and finish strongly. Also except for a few cases most of the top young North American kids play junior hockey, most of the college players are late bloomers unlike the European born player that is playing with very high caliber competition in many cases. That is why Europeans Sergei Samsonov, Mattias Ohlund and Patrik Elias finished first to third respectively in voting for the Calder Trophy last year. So if you must keep a rookie on your roster, the smart money would be on a European.
January 27th, 1999
Now that the break for the NHL’s 49th All-Star game is over Fantasy leaguers can get back to the business of managing their team. For every Luc Robitaille and Wendel Clark that has overachieved there are players like Ryan Smyth and Alexandre Daigle that have disappointed and underachieved. There are many reasons that players surprise, they may be in having injury problems or are being placed in a new role.
Please note all statistics are for games played through January 25th.
There are players that have started to show signs of rebounding. These same players may have been dropped already or may never have been picked up due to a history of inconsistent play.
Ryan Smyth of the Edmonton Oilers who scored 39 goals only two seasons ago once appeared to be a long shot at scoring 39 points. With only 12 points in 40 games played he should still be available. He has shown great improvement since January 1st, since that date he has 8 points in only 9 games. With the return of Doug Weight, the player that has been at the root of most of his success, Ryan Smyth should finish fairly strong.
Todd Bertuzzi and Dave Gagner of the Vancouver Canucks have not produced for different reason this season. Bertuzzi has 8 points after playing in only 14 games this season due to a broken leg. But he’s healthy now and is likely to receive plenty of playing time on either of the top two lines. Gagner’s production hasn’t suffered due to injury it has suffered due to lack of quality ice time. He had only 14 points in 36 games with Florida, but in 2 games with the Canucks he has 2 points. He will also see better quality ice time with Vancouver’s lack of depth at center.
Alexandre Daigle presently of the Philadelphia Flyers would be classified as a major disappointment if he hadn’t been a disappointment in so many other seasons. He has only 5 points in 31 games played this season and is rumored to be balking at a trade to the Edmonton Oilers for the another flake Andrei Kovalenko. In the second half of last season Daigle recorded 28 points in 42 games. If he does go to the Oilers he may be able to approximate that production this season.
Has anyone noticed that since Chris Gratton was traded back to the Tampa Bay Lightning he has started to show the form that made the Flyers trade for him in the first place? Presently he has 15 points in 41 games played, but since January 1st he has 5 points in 9 games. He is getting to play at his most comfortable position at center on one of the top lines. It may take awhile for Gratton to regain his confidence, but when he does he should score at a 60 point pace.
Vincent Damphousse and Brian Savage of the Montreal Canadiens have to date been disappointing to Fantasy leaguers. Damphousse has only 25 points in 41 games played, but at the same point last season he had an identical 25 points in 41 games. The good news is he went on to score at near a point a game clip and he could very well do that this season, as he is a talented but streaky player. Brian Savage has 17 points in 29 games played and he has returned after missing many games due to injury. He has 7 points in his last 9 games and is more than capable of keeping that pace up.
Defenseman Sergei Gonchar is the Washington Capitals answer to the Detroit Red Wing’s Sergei Fedorov. Both have talent that most National Hockey League players could only dream of and both use it every spring in the playoffs. Gonchar has only 10 points in 29 games this season, but he does have 4 goals in 8 games since the 1st of the year. He is more than capable of producing at a ½ a point a game pace the rest of the year.
The Los Angeles Kings have had a very disappointing season, but have started to play much better lately. Two of the reasons may be two line mates, a healthier Jozef Stumpel and an improved Vladimir Tsyplakov. As great as last season was for Stumpel the season so far has been as poor. He was suffering from injuries that hampered his play leaving him with only 18 points in 32 games. But since January 1st he has 8 points in 9 games. Tsyplakov has not shown a recent increase in his scoring but has been a plus 4 since return to form of Stumpel. His production is somewhat tied to his Stumpel’s but he should be better in the second half.
The recent blockbuster trade by the Florida Panthers for Pavel Bure may have positive ramifications for defensemen Bret Hedican and Jaroslav Spacek, two players that may have been overlooked.
Hedican was many nights a fifth defenseman with Vancouver and that meant very limited ice time. With the Canucks he had 13 points in 43 games, but in his 2 games in Florida he has 3 points. Jaroslav Spacek is a future productive Fantasy defenseman, but with only 5 points in 28 games this season he may still be a fill in. He has 2 points in the games Pavel Bure’s played and more importantly looked good doing it. He may still be a gamble, but especially in a long term Fantasy league he may help for years to come.
The next group of players are overachieving and should be moved if fare value can be obtained.
Steve Thomas has been a great surprise for Toronto Maple Leafs this season with 39 points in 46 games. That is on pace for a 70 point season and at 35 years old, he just isn’t that good anymore. The last two seasons he has failed to play 60 games don’t gamble that he will.
Andrei Kovalenko and Josef Beranek of the Edmonton Oilers have both been pleasant surprises but for different reason have started to fade. Andrei Kovalenko has 27 points in 42 games this season but as of January 1st has a miserable 2 points in 8 games. He has played so poorly that he is close to being traded. Josef Beranek on the other hand has played well and lessened the damage the Oilers should have felt with Doug Weight’s injury. He has 33 points in 39 games, but with Weight’s return to form the Beranek importance to the Oilers down the stretch will be greatly reduced.
Almost everything has gone great for the Dallas Stars this season. But there is a dark cloud on the horizon in the knee’s of Joe Nieuwendyk. He is currently listed as day to day but rumors are the recurrence of problems with his wonky knees may be much more serious. The Stars will not rush arguably the second most important player back in to the line up. They need him healthy for the playoffs, so when he returns try to get value and move him as soon as possible.
When a player with the offensive talent like Craig Janney can play his way off the lowly Tampa Bay Lightning who are desperate need of scoring and end up with a poorly managed New York Islanders, that should be a huge warning sign for any Fantasy owner. He has a respectable 22 points in 40 games, but since December 7th he has only 3 points in 15 games. Look for him to have flashes but give him to another owner that only looks at a player’s talent not the size of his heart.
Good starts by overachieving players and poor starts by underachieving players can tempt Fantasy owners in to making unwise decisions. Usually time is all it takes for a player’s true form to show through. So be prepared for the players on your Fantasy team to play up to or down to their potential as the season goes on.
February 3, 1999
The Power Play has always been an important way for National Hockey League players to produce points. In fact the elite player can get 30 to 40% of their total points from being on the Power Play. With all the changes in the NHL to boost goals, scoring is still down. So for Fantasy owners having most if not all your players getting some Power Play time is vital to their and ultimately your point total.
A statistic that some Fantasy owners may not be familiar with or overlook is Power Play Points or P.P.P.’s. Everyone hears about the Power Play goal scorer, but the players that assist on the goal are just as important to the Fantasy Owner.
All statistics are for games played through February 1st.
Most NHL teams have a Power Play that is successful at least 15% of the time. Although the Phoenix Coyotes are hovering around at a horrible 11%, with so many penalties being handed out it is a wonder why Phoenix is doing so well this season. On the other hand Anaheim, St. Louis & Dallas all are successful on their Power Play at over 20%.
The Anaheim Mighty Ducks have three players in the top 10 in the important Power Play Points (PPP) category. With Paul Kariya first, Teemu Selanne fourth & surprising defenseman Fredrik Olausson sixth it is no wonder they are fighting for a playoff spot.
Paul Kariya & Teemu Selanne’s should be able to keep themselves in the top 10 in Power Play Points. With Selanne moving up the list as long as he remains healthy. Steve Rucchin is their center and has 14 P.P.P.’s putting him in a tie for 37th. Even though Rucchin is more a two-way center than a playmaker he should still be able to improve on those numbers and move up in that category.
Fredrik Olausson is the designated quarterback for the Mighty Ducks Power Play, and since there really isn’t any one that can replace him he should keep doing well. The one caveat is Olausson can be quite streaky and Anaheim might decide to give others a chance when he falters. Not being on the Power Play would be disastrous for a player that has scored only 23% of his total points in even strength situations.
Marty McInnis has over 50% of his total points on the Power Play and has played very well since coming in a trade. He does have a tendency to end up in his many Coach’s bad books for being inconsistent. Currently he sits in a tie for 28th, which is a bit too lofty, but due to Anaheim’s lack of depth he should remain in the top 50 in P.P.P.’s.
Florida’s big 5 for scoring are Pavel Bure, Ray Whitney, Rob Niedermayer, Victor Kozlov and defenseman Robert Svehla.
Whitney & Niedermayer are 33rd (tie) and 57th respectively in P.P.P.’s and with Bure joining the mix they should get even better. Bure is not in the top 100 for P.P.P.’s due only to his long holdout, he however is not a great set-up man and that will limit his P.P.P.’s.
The Panther that should really be happy with Bure’s recent arrival is defenseman Robert Svehla. Currently he is 16th in overall scoring for defensemen and is tied for 25th in P.P.P.’s. Svehla is Florida’s only legitimate Power Play Q.B. and thus should substantially improve his P.P.P.’s and his overall point totals the rest of the season.
Victor Kozlov is still a gamble, even though many Fantasy hockey experts are predicting substantial increases in his scoring. He has awesome skills but is more of a scorer than a playmaker, so Bure’s arrival should not help as much as some may think. He may be overvalued in your Fantasy League and this may the best time to trade him for a safer player down the stretch.
The Dallas Stars are currently in first place overall in the National Hockey League. A big part of that may be due to their fabulous Power Play. They have 8 players in the top 100 in P.P.P.’s. They are defensemen Darryl Sydor (2nd), Mike Modano (11th tie), Brett Hull (37th tie), defenseman Sergei Zubov (37th tie), Jamie Langenbrunner (37th tie), Joe Nieuwendyk (54th tie), Jere Lehtinen (67th tie) & Pat Verbeek (88th tie).
Darryl Sydor should still produce well, but like Fredrik Olausson, if for some reason the Stars Power Play ever slumps it will effect him terribly. Only 8 of his points have come at even-strength.
Count on Hull, Zubov, Nieuwendyk & Lehtinen to improve in the second half. Nieuwendyk improvement may still be hampered due to his questionable knees.
Two Stars that may see their P.P.P.’s slump are Langenbrunner and Verbeek. There is only so much time to go around and neither are having great years. In fact Verbeek’s play has been abysmal, and with most NHL coaches that does not get rewarded with more Power Play time!
The Power Play unit the Colorado Avalanche can put on the ice now that Sandis Ozolinsh has signed is on paper the best in the league. A combination of any of the following players should make any Power Play successful Peter Forsberg (5th tie), Joe Sakic (14th tie), Claude Lemieux (48th tie), Adam Deadmarsh (67th tie), Valeri Kamensky (88th tie) & Sandis Ozolinsh not yet in the top 100.
Since Power Plays have only 5 players on the ice at any one time. And 6 players are listed above it only stands to reason 1 of the players listed will see his P.P.P.’s actually slow with Ozolinsh’s addition. The player that will be the odd man out should be Adam Deadmarsh.
Peter Forsberg, but especially Joe Sakic will see their overall point & P.P.P.’s totals both increase with finally having a legitimate Power Play quarterbacking defenseman. Expect Lemieux and Kamensky to see slight improvements in Power Play Points, with the latter player to see a healthy improvement in overall scoring.
The Power Play is even more important for NHL defenseman trying to breakthrough in the point race. As shown by Olausson and Sydor who have produced over 75% of their points on the Power Play. But a case can be made for other defensemen that will see their offensive numbers climb with increased production on the Power Play.
The St. Louis Blues have a great Power Play, which is no surprise with Al MacInnis and Chris Pronger back on the point. MacInnis is currently 3rd and Pronger is tied for 7th in P.P.P.’s and they should keep those numbers coming and may even see an increase with Pierre Turgeon’s return from an extended injury. If Geoff Courtnall ever returns, the Blues top Power Play unit would rival any unit in the NHL.
Everything is going great for the Philadelphia Flyers this season including their 6th ranked Power Play. Two of the main reasons for its’ success are the inspired and improved play of Daniel McGillis (6th) & Eric Desjardins (7th tie). To be fair almost any defenseman would get points on a Power Play that has Eric Lindros, Rod Brind’Amour and John LeClair on it. With the additions of Keith Jones and Mikael Renberg supplementing an already good Power Play McGillis and Desjardins will maintain their current pace.
It is very important for Fantasy owners to take in account the Power Play production of players when adding or deleting players from their lineup.
It is only a matter of time for players such as Brendan Shanahan and Saku Koivu to get back on track, because they tend to see substantial amount of Power Play time. Don’t be too scared off of trade rumors involving these or similar players, because any team acquiring them will give them every opportunity to succeed.
A second line forward that gets first line Power Play duty will be much more valuable than a first line player that sees minimal Power Play duty may not be as valuable to a Fantasy owner. That is why you shouldn’t worry too much when a player is moved off a line as long as they don’t get moved off the top Power Play unit.
February 10, 1999
There are many NHL players that Fantasy owners like to have on their rosters because they know that these players can be counted on to produce at the same level each season. But even these players can have an off-season due to injury or other factors. Until Ron Francis followed the money to Carolina, Fantasy owners could count on him for 90 points a season. He was a dependable star that was often taken for granted.
Sometimes a change of scenery is needed for a player to regain his old form. A transition can help a player achieve the potential most thought he had. Perennial All-Star John Leclair was a rugged winger with untapped potential while with the Montreal Canadiens. He produced a mediocre .53 point per game in his 224 games up North. However, after coming to the Flyers a few years back, his production more than doubled to 1.19 points per game.
The players below may benefit from a LeClair-type change. Many of them have slumped since the Christmas break; some others have never gotten their acts together. For most of these players though, a trade could do wonders. Unfortunately, however, in many cases they will not go anywhere. As for you Fantasy owners, it may be time to unload some of these players through a trade, or start another player in their place. In some extreme cases, they should be dropped outright.
The following statistics are good for games played through February 8th.
The Anaheim Mighty Ducks have two players who have horrible offensive numbers. Travis Green and Tomas Sandstrom both need to produce more. This is the second season in a row that Green has been a dismal scorer, and he already has been moved once (former Islander). He is on pace to get less than 35 points, sit him until he’s traded.
The Mighty Ducks would have loved to have lost Tomas Sandstrom in the expansion draft. He has little left and a hefty contract, which in itself, makes him hard to move. His pace has slowed from 48- to his current 33-points this season. If you still have him, dump him and stop using the 1995 calendar!
The Buffalo Sabres have some players who are bottom-feeding on the stat reports. With four points in his 16 games since the new year began, Matthew Barnaby’s slump has put him high on all trade rumors involving Buffalo. He's a good candidate to get traded as he does possess many attributes teams look for. Sit him also until he gets moved.
The Sabres traded physical winger Brad May for speedy Geoff Sanderson last season. He has one goal and only five assists in his last 18 games, which is a good way to get yourself to the bench. He still has awesome speed and if he ever regains his scoring touch, he could help a team. If he’s not moved soon, any Fantasy owner that is serious about winning their league should dump him.
Left winger Martin Gelinas was one of the many players whom the recently fired Mike Keenan traded last season. The Carolina Hurricanes expected a gritty skater who would pop in 50 points a season. He's on pace for around 20 points. He still has something left and could help some teams, but his contract has scared away many potential suitors. If he does get moved, take a chance. However, as long as he’s with the Hurricanes, it's doubtful he will ever improve.
The Hurricanes should bite the bullet and dump Paul Coffey and trade Jeff O’Neill. The Coffey experiment was worth a shot but he just can’t do it any more. Even if he does catch on with another team, leave him alone. O’Neill has been teasing Fantasy owners with potential since he broke in to the NHL in '95-96. Unfortunately teasing is all he does as he’s not even on pace to reach last year’s mediocre .53 point per game pace. Unlike Coffey, Fantasy owners would be very wise to grab O’Neill if, and when, he’s moved.
Andrew Cassels of the Calgary Flames had a good start over the first part of the 1998-99 season with 22 points in 33 games. Since that point he has only four points in 16 games, and could very well be traded to a team that needs a second line center. There have been rumors of getting Cassels and Geoff Sanderson back together as both had their best seasons while playing with each other. Cassels could be quite a catch for a Fantasy owner that needs a dependable forward, especially if he’s traded to a team that can score.
It would’ve been unthinkable for the Chicago Blackhawks to trade Chris Chelios, one of the best defenseman only a few seasons ago. He is on pace to have one of his worst seasons this year, and with the Blackhawks only mathematically in a playoff hunt, the time is now for him to be moved. Age and diminishing looks have caught up with him as he is a -13 since Dec. 25th. If moved, Chelios should regain some of his old form and be a quality Fantasy defenseman.
Unlike Chelios, Alexei Zhamnov has been a huge disappointment for the Blackhawks since the moment they acquired him for Jeremy Roenick. He had a great start and at Christmas he had 27 points over 32 games. Since then, he’s produced four points in 18 games. It is more than likely that the Blackhawks have finally given up and could finally trade this flake. Fantasy owners should be aware that Zhamnov in the right situation could recapture some of the magic he had while with the old Winnipeg Jets.
The Dallas Stars have been great again this season, but appear to be unwilling to trust their playoff hopes on Joe Nieuwendyk’s bad knees. For that reason, and the fact that he has only six points in 12 games since Christmas, the Stars seem willing to trade him. One rumor making the rounds is a trade for Mark Messier. In the right situation Nieuwendyk could still produce, and being on a freewheeling team would be less stress on his aging knees.
Vyacheslav (Slava) Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov of the Detroit Red Wings have actually produced better since 1998 ended. Kozlov is on pace for only 42 points and since he is not well known for a good work ethic, it is of little surprise that Detroit is so willing to trade him. On the right team he could get 60 to 70 points. If he’s traded he could rebound nicely. Fedorov is the most talented 50 point forward the NHL has ever seen. He has all the talent in the world but only rarely shows that talent in the regular season. He does, however, come to play in the playoffs and due to that fact it is highly unlikely Detroit would unload him now.
A player that Detroit would unload, however, is the badly slumping Brendan Shanahan. With five points in his last 20 games, Shanahan has seen little power play time and is being mentioned often in trade talks. Shanahan still has the talent and if traded could find his form again. The one caveat for Fantasy owners is that he may be more banged up than it has been reported.
With 52 points last season, Vladimir Tsyplakov of the Los Angeles Kings appeared to be on his way to being a very good Fantasy player. Unfortunately this season he has yet to get on track and has actually slumped with only three points in his last 18 games. As long as Jozef Stumpel continues to improve, Tsyplakov will get better, too. If he does get traded expect an immediate increase in his production.
The New York Islanders’ Trevor Linden has not regained the form that made him a great team leader and dependable Fantasy forward. He has only two goals and nine points in 19 games played and many nights finds himself on the third line. He doesn’t seem to be the right fit for the Islanders. If you have him beg for a trade!
Stu Barnes of the Pittsburgh Penguins has taken up permanent residency in the coach's doghouse. He has only six points in 18 games since Christmas and is unlikely to reach the impressive numbers he achieved last season. He is on the trading block and he could be instantly revitalized with a trade like he was when the Panthers let him go. Expect a move to take place and pick him up now while his value is low.
The Vancouver Canucks' Alex Mogilny is a top ten Fantasy forward on paper. But unfortunately they play hockey on ice. Mogilny has scored 76 goals in one season, but he appears to be uninvolved and going through the motions most nights. There are many trade rumors but nothing imminent. A trade could really revitalize his stale year. A trade may happen, but with only five goals and a hefty contract a trade may be easier said than done.
Players whose production would be helped by a move, but that are very unlikely to be moved are the Carolina Hurricanes' Ron Francis, Calgary Flames' Cory Stillman, Chicago Blackhawks' Eric Daze, Richard Matvichuk, and Tomas Holmstrom. Also, if you believe the Canucks' General Manager Brian Burke, Messier is untouchable. Anyone that follows the Canucks would be 'shocked' if Mr. Burke is not telling the truth!
Remember, there are a lot fewer trades in the National Hockey League today than even a few seasons ago. So much goes into a trade that has little to do with the talent of the players involved. Also, the NHL’s trade deadline does not see the big trades that it used to. Most of the big trades are completed at least a few weeks before the deadline, or not at all.
February 17, 1999
The forgotten element of any winning equation for Fantasy owners in winning their Fantasy leagues is goalies. With most teams having less than 30 games left in their regular season strategy starts to come into play for National Hockey League teams. As the Playoffs approach teams have to be very careful on how they play their goalies, especially with regards to the starting goalie.
Ideally a team would like to be pushed just enough that they are ready for the increased intensity of the 2 month marathon, but not so much as they are worn down. No other position is affected by the upcoming playoffs as are goalies. A team like the Tampa Bay Lightning that is out of the playoff hunt may decide to move a veteran goalie to a contender and then go with a young goalie.
All statistics are as of games played through February 15th.
Expect Tampa Bay Lightning’s veteran goalie Bill Ranford to see a decrease in ice time for one of two reasons. Either Ranford will be traded to a playoff team that needs a veteran backup goalie to stabilize the goaltending or stay but see a decrease due to the Lightning wanting to get a better look at others in the organization. Expect Corey Schwab or one of the minor league duo of Derek Wilkinson or Zac Bierk to get a look.
The New York Islanders are also all but officially out of the playoff hunt. The one thing the Islanders have going for them is the goaltending duo of Felix Potvin and Tommy Salo. Expect Tommy Salo to be traded unless the owners wise up and fire the incompetent GM Mike Milbury. The Edmonton Oilers have been rumored to be interested in Salo. A trade would make both goalies productive to Fantasy owners, until that time both are risky.
Brian Burke the big boss with Vancouver Canucks would have you believe they are playoff contenders. They’re not so expect recently acquired Kevin Weekes to be signed and given a chance to play at the expense of Garth Snow’s minutes and Corey Hirsch’s job! Weekes is the top rated goalie in the IHL with a very impressive 2.04 goals against average.
The Chicago Blackhawks have been getting solid if unspectacular goaltending from Jocelyn Thibault and backup Mark Fitzpatrick. With no real goaltending prospect playing for their minor league club expect status quo. In fact expect Thibault to be given even more playing time as Chicago may want to see if he can truly be a good number one goalie.
The New York Rangers are also unlikely to make the playoffs and if this becomes more of a certainty before the trading deadline they may risk moving Mike Richter. Most hockey people feel Dan Cloutier is ready to be a number one goalie, but with Richter on the team something will have to give for that to happen. Cloutier has a .923 save percentage and a sparkling 2.33 goals against average, those numbers compare very favorably with Richter’s .905 save percentage and 2.73 goals against average.
On the other hand a team like the Colorado Avalanche that is secure in a playoff spot may try to rest their top goalie Patrick Roy more than usual so that he is fresher for the playoffs. That does not mean that a goalie like Craig Billington will suddenly become a viable Fantasy goalie, just that Patrick Roy’s value may diminish as the season finalizes.
Dallas Stars have been the best team in the NHL so far this season, but they realize that all that really matters is the Stanley Cup. That should see Ed Belfour be rested and give Roman Turek a lot more starts the rest of the season compared with what he received so far. The one caveat is that Turek will probably be exposed for the Expansion Draft at the end of the year. The Atlanta Thrashers are unlikely to pass on such a quality goalie, that may mean Dallas may try to get something for him before the trading deadline.
The Detroit Red Wings are unlikely to catch the Western Conference leader Dallas Stars. That means Chris Osgood is more than likely to be well rested for the playoffs. Norm Maracle has proven to be more than adequate in the 13 games he’s seen action. Fantasy owners may not see as big a decline in points because his slight decrease in playing time may be offset by the improved play of the Red Wings.
The Phoenix Coyotes have gotten great goaltending from Nikolai Khabibulin, but seemed destined to finish 4th in the Western Conference. That leaves the Coyotes open to play steady backup Jimmy Waite a bit more down the stretch. Also watch for Phoenix to cool off with little to play for until the playoffs, which will also hurt Khabibulin’s numbers.
With the NHL’s current playoff format most teams do not fall into either of the above goalie scenarios. In fact the majority of the teams are fighting for a playoff spot or moving up positions in their conference.
In the very weak Southeast division in the Eastern Conference, only one team is assured of a playoff spot. Currently 1st place Carolina and 2nd place Florida Panthers are in the playoffs. Both teams realize that finishing 2nd means there is a good chance they will miss the playoffs as the Eastern Conference is extremely tough.
Carolina Hurricanes’ backup goalie Trevor Kidd may see more playing time with starter Arturs Irbe as long as Kidd is playing well. They would like to rest pint-size Irbe more, but the surging Florida Panthers have made that impossible. As soon as the Panthers can lock up a playoff spot they would like to rest injury prone starting goalie Sean Burke and give a bit more playing time to Kirk McLean.
The Ottawa Senators do not fit in to any mold they are one team that tends to play both goalies equally. This however will change in the last few weeks before the playoffs as if either Ron Tugnutt or Damian Rhodes gets hot they will play more. Remember no team likes to play both goalies equally in the playoffs so the Senators will want either Tugnutt or Rhodes to take the number one spot before the playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are secure in the playoffs, but finishing 1st in their division would move them up 3 or 4 seeds. With Glenn Healy’s injury finally healed, Curtis Joseph may get a bit more rest. If Joseph doesn’t get more rest the Maple Leafs don’t have much hope. So expect him to get some rest against the weaker teams late in the season.
As the season draws to and end more and more National Hockey League teams will ensure themselves a playoff spot or for the unlucky ones an early vacation. For Fantasy owners the playoffs do play a part on a NHL teams’ strategy late in the season and they should incorporate this in their own strategy. The starting goalies on those teams will see more time on the bench especially in back to back games.
Conversely the goalies on teams that are fighting for a playoff spot will tend to play even more. It makes no sense for a team to have a well rested starting goalie if they miss the playoffs.
February 24, 1999
All statistics are as of games played through February 22nd.
The players on good National Hockey League teams that have a helpful schedule by playing a lot of weak teams will tend to score more than other players. For the purpose of rating the teams with the best schedule different factors were used. The two most important of these factors were the overall number of games left and games left versus weak clubs.
Nine teams were identified as being weak clubs. They are Calgary, Chicago, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Tampa Bay and Vancouver.
There are five teams that are identified as having the friendliest schedules to players racking up Fantasy points. Those teams are Colorado, Dallas, Detroit, Ottawa & St. Louis.
Players on Colorado can look forward to 11 games out of their 25 remaining games against weak teams. The Avalanches’ 4 veteran superstars Peter Forsberg, Joe Sakic, Sandis Ozolinsh & Patrick Roy have all proven in the past that they can feed off weak clubs and they will all have great finishes, health permitting!
Colorado rookie Chris Drury will also benefit greatly by playing weak opposition. With Adam Deadmarsh often moving up to the top line, Drury centers the second line. This helps both players with better linemates. Drury has been excellent recently and may soon lead the rookie scoring race.
The St. Louis Blues are tied for first with the Avalanche with 11 games versus weak clubs, but they have 1 extra game left in their season. Pierre Turgeon has missed 14 games this season but has come back strong. He has 40 points in 41 games played. Turgeon has never been known as a character player. He tended to disappear against the stronger teams that would play with intensity. The cushy schedule the Blues have will help Turgeon to keep up his recent pace.
Special teams play has become such an integral part of a team’s success that is generally why weak teams also have poor penalty killing. That is a big help to Blues’ forward Pavol Demitra who is tied for 3rd in the NHL with 12 PPG. He has shown no signs of slowing down and with 11 games versus weaker teams he should have no trouble getting 80 points this season.
Defensemen Al MacInnis and Chris Pronger are the big reasons the St. Louis Blues have faired so well even with weak goaltending and the loss of Brett Hull. This dynamic duo can feed off any team lapses but can totally demoralize a weak clubs resolve with their booming shots from the point. Expect these two to pick up the pace as the season concludes.
Fantasy owners with any Dallas Stars have 28 games left to rack up the points. With 10 of those games against weak teams, the veterans players on Dallas should really come on strong down the stretch.
Mike Modano of the Stars may be the most underrated superstar in the NHL today. He has turned into a gifted point producer, but his defensive game has picked up and he leads the team in plus minus with a plus 21! Modano likes having Hull to create plays with and now that Hull has regained his form both players will have great finishes.
The Dallas Stars have a lot of depth, hence Jamie Langenbrunner, Sergei Zubov & Jere Lehtinen are often forgotten about by Fantasy owners. They are however, dependable offensive players that should both approach 60 points this season. Depending on defenseman Darryl Sydor’s injury, watch for the Stars' other offensive defenseman Sergei Zubov to pick up more points.
The Detroit Red Wings have been rather mediocre this season after winning back-to-back Stanley Cups. Don’t be fooled by this as they have started to win and are starting to show the form that make them still the favorites to bring home the Cup once more.
They routinely get excellent performances from the best captain in the NHL, Steve Yzerman, who has an impressive 56 points in 58 games played. Yzerman is such a leader that he is much more preoccupied with winning than points. But with Detroit having 10 games against weak opponents, he can’t help but get another 20 – 25 points down the stretch.
If only Sergei Fedorov had fellow Russian Igor Larionov’s commitment to each and every game, but he doesn’t. Luckily for Fantasy owners that have stuck with Fedorov the playoffs are nearing and linemate Slava Kozlov has started to score. Those two factors plus a soft schedule that sees Detroit play less games than most of their Western Conference brethren will aid Fedorov to produce well over his last 23 games.
The Ottawa Senators have arrived as a true powerhouse in the Eastern Conference. They’ve won an incredible 16 games more than they have lost and Alexei Yashin has quietly become one of the 10 best players in the NHL. He plays with intensity ever night and with the Senators having 26 games left, 9 of which are against the bottom feeders in the NHL, he may hit the century mark.
The Senators have gotten very good production from the surprising trio of Shawn McEachern, Andreas Johansson and Andreas Dackell that have 46, 32 & 31 points respectively. Ottawa wins with intensity and good team play, but with 9 out their last 26 games against weak teams the McEachern, Johansson & Dackell will continue to produce.
It also doesn’t hurt the Senators success to have 3-quality defensemen in Wade Redden, Igor Kravchuk and Jason York. There are trade rumors involving Kravchuk, but that with Ottawa becoming a real threat in the East count on him staying. Redden and York maybe 2 of the best unknown defensemen in the league. Redden and York have 22 and 28 points respectively this season. Just like the team they play for, these two are for real as they’ll prove in the final games.
Toronto Maple Leafs have 9 games out of their final 25 games versus lower quality teams. They can score with any team in the league. Which wouldn’t have been a huge surprise at the start of the season, with a team that appeared to have Mats Sundin and little else. Mats Sundin should keep up his point a game pace in his final games.
The three biggest surprises on the Leafs this season have been the emergence of Igor Korolev and Sergei Berezin, and the rebound year of Steve Thomas. Berezin has bounced back from last season’s debacle that saw him scratched 14 times and produce 31 points in the other 68 games. Horrible numbers for a player that is not known for being good defensively. This season Berezin has 35 points in only 50 games and is a plus 8. Both Berezin and Korolev should get their points over the last 25 games.
At the start of the season only Steve Thomas’s family would have picked him in a Fantasy league. He was Toronto’s other free-agent pickup, forgotten in all the excitement over the arrival of goalie Curtis Joseph. He has recorded 22 goals and 50 points in only 56 games and is unlikely to not continue his torrid pace.
Even though the five teams above have a seemingly easy schedule that doesn’t always guarantee that they will produce. Injuries, slumps, trades and players being rested by their NHL teams down the stretch can all affect point totals. Also some of the weak teams that have nothing to play for and therefore have little or no pressure may upset a much better team. With all that being said these teams will take their easy schedule and finish strongly.
March 3, 1999
All Statistics are good as of games played March 1st.
Depending on what type of Fantasy hockey league you’re in this is the time of the season many Fantasy owners start to scan every National Hockey League team’s Roster looking for players that may help them. Some leagues will be starting their playoffs while others will end their season with the NHL. Either way there are some forgotten players that can help Fantasy owners over a few weeks or months.
There are some players that are forgotten but often times they are just discounted by Fantasy owners because they’ve spent times in the AHL or IHL this season. The players that have spent time in the minors this year for various reasons, but may now be ready to help a fantasy team. Many of these players will go back and forth from the big club to the minors, but for stretches can be quite useful.
There are two reasons most often used for brining up minor-leaguers. Teams that find themselves in the playoff hunt but due to injuries or another reason feel a need to call-up players. The NHL teams that find themselves out of the playoffs will want to reward and or take a look at their minor league prospects and see if the player may be ready to play full-time for their team the following season.
The Vancouver Canucks are one of those teams that find themselves all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. So such household names as Steve Washburn, Kevin Weekes, Josh Holden and Peter Schaefer, that all have spent time in the minors this season, are being given a chance to play with the Canucks. In the case of Washburn and Schaefer both should expect to see little quality time with the Canucks.
In the case of goalie Kevin Weekes who has spent most of the season with the Detroit Vipers of the IHL he has already taken over the backup role with the Canucks. Weekes is the planned starter for Vancouver’s March 3rd game. He will be given every opportunity to become the starter sooner than later. The only reason Josh Holden is still in the minors is he was injured. He will be called up soon and it is likely to be a permanent call up unlike Schaefer.
The St. Louis Blues goaltending got so desperate that after Jim Carey he was released by Boston, they picked him up. Carey had a good record with Providence in the AHL only losing 8 of the games he played in. If he regains even some of the form that led to him winning the Vezina as the best goalie a few seasons ago he could help the Blues and also may help Fantasy owners that take a big gamble. With Grant Fuhr and Rich Parent both being injured, he will be given an opportunity.
The New Jersey Devils have had Vadim Sharifijanov up from the minors for most of the season. He is currently 7th in rookie scoring with 23 points in 41 games played. Sharifijanov’s production has slowed recently but he is a sturdy 205lbs forward with some offensive ability that might still have some more points left in him for the rest of the season.
The Fleury-less Calgary Flames called Hnat Domenichelli up from the minors where he led that team with 46 points in 51 games played. He is a gifted offensive player but his physical limitations and poor play has not endeared him to Coach Brian Sutter. With the departure of Fleury the Flames may finally give him a real shot of sticking with the team. Remember that the Panthers Ray Whitney once also appeared to be a prospect that would never pan out!
Forward Alexandre Korolyuk and defensemen Andrei Zyuzin are both promising prospects with the San Jose Sharks. Korolyuk has moved up to 13th in NHL rookie scoring with 16 points in 35 games while still being able to get another 22 points in 23 games in the minors. The Sharks do not have enough scoring and will give him opportunities to make it.
Andrei Zyuzin is the Sharks 1st round-pick, 2nd overall in 1996 and is part of their future. He has been known to a little erratic as his 23 games in the minors would attest, but he did get 14 points in those games and even played in the minor league all-star game. He has only 3 points in his 19 games with San Jose this season. If you’re in a league that allows you to keep players it may be time to pick Zyuzin up as when he does finally start fulfilling his vast potential it will be too late to pick him up so cheaply. The one caveat with both Korolyuk and Zyuzin is that their coach has little patience for players, especially Europeans, that don’t work hard.
The Los Angeles Kings had been pleased with rookie Pavel Rosa, but recently he’s been a healthy scratch. He has 14 points in only 21 games with the Kings and 13 points in 16 games in the minors where he will probably be returning to unless there is another injury. With Glen Murray’s return from a lengthy injury expect Rosa to be see much less quality time.
There are also three recent call-ups that are having or are projected to have some early success with their NHL teams.
The down and out Chicago Blackhawks have recently recalled J.P. Dumont and Josef Marha. Dumont was having a fine season in the minors where he had recorded 46 points in 50 games played. Expect Dumont to get his 1st point soon, and depending on any trades that Chicago makes he may be up for good. Josef Marha may not be as ready to take advantage of ice time as his teammate, but watch for early success. If he doesn’t produce quickly expect a trip back down.
The Boston Bruins Cameron Mann had 46 points in only 43 games with the Bruins affiliate and only has 4 points in 14 games with the Bruins. Not great Fantasy numbers until you realize that those 4 points all of which were goals came in his last 4 games. Mann may finally be ready to stay with the big club and could give a Fantasy owner some short-term success.
Another Bruin that may be worth a gamble is forward Randy Robitaille. He has 2 points in his 4 games with the Bruins, but had an American Hockey League leading 75 points in 55 games in the minors. Watch closely to see Robitaille’s linemates and playing time.
The Edmonton Oilers goalie Steve Passmore appeared in 45 games in the minors and had a 2.23 goals against average and 21 wins. He’s let in only 4 goals in his two games and has an excellent .933 save percentage. He has supplanted Mikhail Shtalenkov who until recently had been sharing duties with Bob Essensa. Expect Passmore to stick and if he were to get hot could be a quality backup in many of the deeper Fantasy leagues.
Many players that graduate from the minors to the NHL may be back in the minors before they even get a chance to feel comfortable. It is very important that they show what they can do as quickly as possible, especially if they’re called up to a team that is in the playoff hunt. A Fantasy owner that is in a league that continues their season into the playoffs could find some of these call-ups pretty useful as replacements for an injured starter.
Depending on the flexibility of your league call-ups can be quite useful, but if you’re in a league that allows very little movement then think twice. For example, say your league is having a re-draft and you’ll be stuck with any pickups for the rest of the season many of these players may be too much of a gamble as their production could dry up as soon as it started.