Mr. Shark's ARTICLES

There seems to be some agreement on the top handful of players that should be taken at this years’ National Hockey League Entry Draft in Boston.  Most hockey people believe the top 4 players selected will be Pavel Brendl, Patrik Stefan, Daniel Sedin & Henrik Sedin although the order is still anyone’s guess.  But after those top 4 players it is anyone’s guess to who will be selected next! 

The Entry Draft is one of the most exciting days for hockey fans and hockey teams alike.  It is the time of the year that almost every player they draft may turn out to be a superstar.  For most teams the second-guessing happens directly after each selection.  Would anyone of the teams that selected ahead of Pittsburgh the day they drafted Jaromir Jagr 5^th overall (1990) be quite as happy with their selection as they were on draft day? 

All teams hope for a good player with their draft picks, but getting a player with a first round pick in the top ten is a must. If they’re really lucky and have a good scouting department they may end up with a player that turns out as well as a Jeremy Roenick (8^th), Rod Brind’Amour (9^th), Teemu Selanne (10^th), Mark Recchi (67^th) or Rob Blake (70^th).  Often times the best player available in the Entry Draft is not the most obvious.  

Here is a look at ten of the top players eligible at the 1999 Entry Draft scheduled for Saturday, June 26 at the FleetCenter in Boston.

Listed beside each player is the NHL team that has the pick and may choose that player.  That does not mean that each team will select that particular player, it’s just the rating of that player.  The New York Islanders have 2 picks in the top 10, although they’ll probably trade them for cash!

Pavel Brendl (1st), Tampa Bay

Played rightwing for the Calgary Hitmen (WHL) and had great numbers.  In 68 regular season games he had 73 goals and 61 assists for 134 points.  In the playoffs he had 46 points in only 20 games.  Unlike his Czech compatriot Patrik Stefan, the 6’0, and 205lbs Brendl is very powerful and smooth on the ice.  Brendl is rumored to be a bit of a head case, and being a big fan of Petr Nedved should have his NHL club scared to death or at the very least concerned about.  Two bizarre facts about the player are his diet (loves hotdogs) and he was suspended for a game in the WHL final for an obscene gesture.   

Forecast:  an entertaining free spirit that will score at the NHL level.  A definite shot at 15-20 goals and the same number of assists.

Patrik Stefan (2nd), Atlanta

He is a highly skilled 18yr old Czech center listed at 6’1 and 205lbs and still growing.  He played with the IHL’s Long Beach Ice Dogs against men with pretty good statistics before he was injured.  In 33 games he had 35 points and was also a plus 8.  There are dangers in selecting him though.  His skating is mediocre and his long-term health must be a concern.  Remember even though he had a good rookie season in the IHL this is the same league in which the Canucks’ winless Kevin Weekes dominated in goal and mediocre Ottawa Senators’ forward Radek Bonk starred.

Forecast: take the chance and you’ll be rewarded with a Sergei Samsonov type rookie year.

Daniel Sedin (3rd), Vancouver

Listed at 6’2 and 187lbs he is slightly smaller than his twin brother Henrik.  He had 10 points in 6 games in the 1999 World Junior Championships and was fairly impressive, especially earlier in the tournament.  Daniel scored 42 points in 50 games for MoDo (Sweden) tied for 13^th overall in scoring.  Slightly more talented than his broth er especially when it comes to scoring.  Like his brother he is a great playmaker and a good skater.  The twins are superior stick-handlers and have good vision on the ice. 

Forecast: would be an obvious contender for the Calder trophy, but word is he will stay in Sweden another year.    

Henrik Sedin (4th), Chicago

Listed at 6’3 and 195 and not as skilled as his brother, but plays center which is a need for many NHL teams.  A very talented playmaker that has shown improvement, but he’s not very flashy and it is questionable whether he could be a star center!  He is believed to be the twin that would stay in Sweden rather than be drafted by a different team than the one that selects his brother.  Both players and their agent deny this, but it has to worry any team when drafting either Sedin.  He had 9 points in 6 games in the 1999 WJC.  He scored 34 points in 49 games for MoDo (Sweden), tying him for 25^th overall in League scoring.

Forecast: ready to play in the NHL but is likely to stay in Sweden another year. 

Denis Shvidki (5th), NY Islanders

Listed at 6’ and 195lbs he played junior hockey in Canada instead of in Russia.  He had 94 points in 61 games for the Barrie Colts (OHL).  Shvidki has all the offensive tools, especially a great shot, that will make him a good player in the NHL in the years to come although his stock has fallen a bit. Like many Europeans before him he will have to adjust to the physical aspect of the NHL, but a year or two in Major Junior should have him ready.

Forecast:  probably will need some more seasoning before he makes it to the big league.  He is a player to watch and if your league has room for reserves he may be a great selection if you can wait.

Kris Beech (6^th), Nashville

Listed at 6’2 and 180lbs he is already big center, but watch out when he adds a few more pounds to his frame.  He had 67 points in 68 games with the Memorial Cup runner up Calgary Hitmen (WHL).  He is projected to eventually become a good two-way center in the NHL.  Beech has excellent speed, but does not have the offensive upside as many of the prospects in the top ten.

Forecast:  another few years of junior hockey, and even then it is unlikely he will ever put up great fantasy numbers. 

Jamie Lundmark (7^th), Washington

Canadian born Jamie Lundmark of the Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL) is listed at 6’0 and 175lbs.  A smart offensive player with great acceleration, but more of a playmaker than a scorer he does have a good shot that will enable him to chip in some goals at the NHL level.  He produced 91 points in 70 regular season games, and had 9 points in 11 playoff games. 

Forecast:  another year of junior hockey.  

Jani Rita (8^th), Los Angeles

At 6’1 and 185lbs this talented Finnish born player had 5 points in 41 games with Jokeritt (Finland) and 2 points in 6 games at the WJC.  His stock has fallen a bit with some projecting him to fall to the middle of the first round.  Rita is a good skater that tends to rely on his power game.   Many players from Finland have good success in the NHL, and he will eventually join this group.

Forecast:  it will be a few seasons before he is worth taking in any fantasy league, but has potential to be very good.  

Tim Connolly (9^th), Calgary

A 6’- 180lbs center with great speed is an interesting proposition for a team selecting this American born player.  He had 68 points in 46 games with the Errie Otters (OHL), but had very little success in the WJC tournament with only 1 goal in 6 games.  He will make the NHL, but will he resemble the mediocre Mike Sillinger of the Lightning or the wonderful Steve Yzerman of the Detroit Red Wings?

Forecast:  Another year of junior hockey before he becomes a legitimate threat of becoming an NHL’er! More offensive upside than Jani Rita, but his game may not be as suited to the heavy going of the NHL.

Brian Finley (10^th), NY Islanders

Listed at 6’3 and 180lbs this goalie is almost guaranteed of being the first goalie chosen in this season’s Entry Draft.  He had 36 wins, 4 ties and only 10 losses for the Barrie Colts (OHL).  He was Robert Luongo’s (Islander prospect) backup at the WJC for Canada.  He only played in a period and let in 2 goals with no decisions in 7 games.  Finley has great reflexes and with his size should be a great prospect in years to come.  But remember young goalies are much riskier to project than any other position. 

Forecast:  Not even top goalie prospect Roberto Luongo made it to the NHL in his first year, and Finley is not the prospect that Luongo is.  He is at least 2-3 years from the NHL. 

Teams missing the playoffs get the rewards that come with a dismal season by giving their franchise and fans hopefully something to look forward to.  The trick is to make sure they don’t continue their losing ways in the Entry Draft.  The other teams selecting in the first round also want to have a rewarding draft, although they do not quite have the pressure on them as the teams that missed the playoffs. 

Fantasy owners must remember that most of the players in the 1999 Entry Draft in Boston are only 17-18yrs old.  The players drafted in the NHL are mostly right out of high school not out of University like the NBA or the NFL!  For the majority of these players they are years from being anything other than prospects in the NHL. 

A quick glance at the first ten players selected in the 1998 Entry Draft is a good example of what to expect out of this year’s group of prospects.  Only the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Vincent Lecavalier with 28 points in 82 games and Manny Malholta of the New York Rangers with 16 points in 73 games had any impact in the National Hockey League last season.

A Fantasy look ahead at the Dallas Stars

June 23, 1999

Is there a better feeling than winning the Stanley Cup, if you ask the Dallas Stars they’ll tell you no.  The biggest trick of all is to win it again.  As most good teams will tell you, it is a lot harder to stay on top than to get to there.  It may be a little much to expect this group to repeat next season.  In fact for fantasy hockey league owners many of the players may be poor or over valued in the regular season.

After the Detroit Red Wings won their first of two Stanley Cups two of their most important players had a marked decline in the following regular season’s PPG’s.  Steve Yzerman had 1.05 regular season PPG in the year they won the Cup, the following year it dropped to 0.92.  Brendan Shanahan’s drop was more significant, dropping from 1.09 PPG to 0.76.  At least part of the blame for the drop in production can be attributed to these players realizing, at least subconsciously that winning the Cup is the only thing that matters and that they may have to save themselves for when it counts.

Does this mean that every player will have a drop in production the season following a Stanley Cup win?  Of course not, but for a team leader like Mike Modano and Joe Nieuwendyk, an Yzerman-like drop in PPG is quite possible.  For other players winning the Cup may actually help motivate them and an improvement in production may happen.  Here’s a fantasy look at what to expect out of the Stanley Cup champions for next season.

Like Steve Yzerman before him the knock on Mike Modano was that he was a winner or a team player.  Know that Modano has destroyed both of those unfair criticisms; he may be ready to assume the mantle as the best team captain in the NHL.  Unfortunately for any fantasy owner that has Modano that may not reflect in more points next season.  In 100 regular season and playoff games he had 104 points, unless scoring opens up next season a slight drop in production is expected.  Like many of his teammates he played with a significant injury but he’ll be ready for the start of training camp.

It is very harsh to suggest that Brett Hull finally scored a goal that meant something.  Has he dispelled the "me first" attitude that seemingly dogged him through out his career and led to major feuds with the likes of Mike Keenan?  Probably, but it will be interesting to see what he does next season.  Will he buy into his coach’s defense first approach again?  If he does, expect that he will have trouble getting a point per game.  Hull is questionable for the start of the regular season as reported by his coach  "He played on one knee and no groins the last three shifts”!  Hitchcock also suggests that he may still be rehabbing by the start of the season. 

Joe Nieuwendyk finally proved GM Bob Gainey right in the trade in which they gave up promising youngster Jarome Iginla.  That’s not to say that he hadn’t played well before, but the Stars added him so they could challenge for the Stanley Cup not the Presidents Trophy!   Nieuwendyk missed 15 games last season and if he can cut that in half, he is a good candidate to increase his 55 points to at least 60.  He does a bad history for being injured and if his MVP in the playoffs has boosted his value too much you may want to let some other owner grab him.

Jamie Langenbrunner had a very disappointing “98-99” regular season with a meager 45 points in 75 games.  But his confidence must be soaring with his excellent play during the playoffs and with his 17 points in 23 games.   His renewed confidence should carry over for next season and he may finally have a breakthrough year with 60 points.  Expect him to beat his career high of 52 points next season.

Dallas was led in no small part by the offense that they got from the defensive duo of Sergei Zubov (13pts) and Darryl Sydor (12pts) in the playoffs.  Zubov had already won a Cup before with the Rangers, but this is Sydor’s first so expect that he’ll have much more confidence next season.  In fact Sydor will prove that he is an elite defenseman and may even mount a significant challenge for the Norris Trophy. 

Jere Lehtinen had 10 goals but only 3 assists in the playoffs, but when you’re playing against the other team’s top lines most of the time that’s not bad.  Lehtinen is a great two-way player and should be able to match his 52point regular season total. 

Dave Reid, Guy Carbonneau & Mike Keane get most of their recognition for solid defensive play in both ends of the ice.  But with only 17 points in 73 regular season games, who would have expected Reid to produce an incredible 10 points in the playoffs?  Well he did not find the fountain of youth and don’t expect Lehtinen-type numbers out of Reid next season.  He is a role player that was given a bigger role in the playoffs, but this is not expected to reflect in his 1999-2000 regular season production.   Guy Carbonneau is in the same boat as Reid, invaluable in the playoffs, but at his age expecting 20 points in a season would be a bit high.   Mike Keane on the other hand is probably the most offensively gifted of the three, but even that still makes him a long shot of equaling his 29 points he had this past season.

The combo of Derian Hatcher and Richard Matvichuk were towers of strength for the Stars all year, but proved their importance in the playoffs against the other team’s best players.  Hatcher does not get enough recognition for his offensive production, he may never match his brother Kevin’s season highs, but 30 points in a season is pretty good in the NHL of the late 90’s.  Matvichuk is not quite as gifted offensively but is starting to come in to his own defensively.  Expect 35 points for Hatcher and around 20 points for Matvichuk.

Pat Verbeek and Tony Hrkac are unrestricted free agents this year and even though there numbers wont warrant it they’ll both get good contracts for what they can still do and that is score.  In 78 games this season he scored 17 times and added 17 assists, which is not that bad on a defensive team.  If he signs with the right team he may have a chance of reaching 50 points again, but with Dallas he’ll probably have to settle for 40.  Tony Hrkac is a player that is stuck in no man’s land.  He is an offensive type player that really doesn’t have the skill to be a fixture on the top 2 lines.  So unless he signs with a team like Atlanta, he wont get enough quality minutes to make him very attractive to fantasy owners.  In the perfect situation he could get 40 – 45 points, so watch where he signs.

Goalie Ed Belfour has finally gotten the Piano of his back as being a goalie that was known for not winning the big one.  A very unfair knock that has never been leveled at the Toronto Maple Leaf’s Curtis Joseph who hasn’t even been to a Stanley Cup final series!  Belfour had a regular season GAA of 1.99 and a decent save percentage of 0.915, but in the Playoffs he was arguably the Stars most valuable player.  He was able for the first time, when it counted, to keep his composure and got better as the playoffs went along.  He was able to guide his team to wins over Hasek & Roy, arguably the 2 best goalies in the league.   With the Stars, almost any starting goalie would be a good starter for a fantasy league team.  But with a newfound confidence that he and his teammates have in his ability, watch for Belfour’s numbers to improve.  Due to the loss of Roman Turek to the St. Louis Blues, he’ll have even less opportunity to rest.  Look for him to approach 65 – 70 games played in the upcoming season.

Dallas has many other players that in the right situation could be better offensively than they are, but for the most part they see the big picture.  Players like Benoit Hogue and Derek Plante were willing to be role players in their quest to win a Cup.  That is admirable but it doesn’t help any one in a fantasy league, so be careful and remember that the NHL is really 2 seasons.  Leave character out of any fantasy hockey league draft, production is all that matters when it comes to winning your league!

A Recap of the Expansion & Entry Draft

June 30, 1999

There were many a comings and goings in Boston over the weekend as the National Hockey League held its expansion draft on Friday and the entry draft the very next day.  There were a few teams in particular that were busier than others through trades and expansion. 

The expansion Atlanta Thrashers were at the forefront on Friday after selecting a group of grinders from which to build a team ready for the start of the season.  The fact that a number of the players may never even see one game with the Thrashers matters not.  A few of those players may yet surprise and may have a Scott Walker type season. 

At 5’10 and 190lbs, Scott Walker tried to be a policeman for the Vancouver Canucks.  He would play well for stretches but seemed to wear down from the daily pounding by the much bigger enforcers around the league.  But when the Nashville Predators picked him up in their expansion draft they were in for a huge surprise.  Walker was given a new role as a power forward, that didn’t really have to fight to be effective.  He played the most games in his career high in goals, assists and points, but at the same time a career low in PIMs.  There will be players on the Thrashers that will be given new roles, roles they’ve haven’t had since junior and a few will succeed.

Terry Yake is currently the offensive dynamo on the Thrashers with 27 points in 60 games last season with the St. Louis Blues.  It must be remembered that he was behind guys like Pierre Turgeon and Pavol Demitra with the Blues, a problem he will not face in Atlanta.  Yake is one of those players that puts up great minor league numbers, but just isn’t talented enough to compete against the elite forwards.  Whether he is up to it or not is seemingly unimportant on a team that makes the Nashville Predators resemble the Oilers in their heyday!  He will get the chance and should be a lock for 40 points.

After selecting Peter Ferraro in the expansion draft the Thrashers sent him packing back to the Bruins for minor league forward Randy Robitaille.  Robitaille spent all but 4 games with Providence (AHL) last season.  He is 23 years old and at 5’11” & 195lbs is big enough to compete, but was never really given a chance to compete for a job with the Bruins.  In his NHL career he’s only had 2 points in his 9 games, but was second last season in AHL scoring with 102 points.  Watch closely to see if Robitaille is getting playing time in the preseason on one of the top two lines.  He has the talent to possibly chip in with 35 points.

Johan Garpenlov is too talented a player to have only gotten 17 points in 64 games last season for Florida.  In the 95-96 season he posted a respectable 51 points in 82 games.  It is unlikely that even a motivated Garpenlov could get those kind of numbers now, but a 15 goals and 20 assists season is not out of reach. 

Is it possible that the Thrashers can make a reasonable offensive defenseman out of the likes of Gord Murphy, Maxim Galanov or Jamie Pushor? Not likely, but that is their task unless they can pick up a better offensive defenseman before the start of the season.  Not one of Nashville’s defenseman was able to break the 20 point barrier, so don’t expect much more out of the present Thrasher’s group.

The entry draft had a lot more drama than the expansion draft, with the Vancouver Canucks stealing the show by working themselves into a position to select the Sedin twins.  A daring and inventive move, that had the crowds buzzing at the FleetCenter and those watching on television.   If the twins play this season, expect them to perform well and even improve as the season goes along.  There are rumors that the Sedins will play this season for the Canucks, but make sure before drafting them in your league. 

The New York Rangers made a trade on draft day in order to select talented goal scorer Pavel Brendl (4th).  On paper losing goalie Dan Cloutier and forward Niklas Sundstrom to Tampa Bay makes them a bit weaker next season even if Brendl can contribute.  But the chances the Rangers will be starting the 1999-2000 season with the present crew is slim and none.  If Brendl makes the Rangers this season he would be quite valuable in keeper leagues, especially if he can get some time on fellow Czech and flake Petr Nedved.   A Calder candidate if he makes the Rangers. 

The Atlanta Thrashers made a trade with the Canucks that basically cost them a 3^rd round pick, for the sole reason of selecting Patrik Stefan with the 1^st overall pick instead of the 2^nd overall pick.  The Canucks trade with Tampa stipulated that they were not allowed to take either Stefan or Brendl.  There is little doubt that Stefan will play for the Thrashers next season and most likely play quite well.  His skill has never been questioned, just his health.  Even though his agent was not making his current medical reports public even to the General Managers, teams were able to get a less recent history from his old Long Beach Ice Dogs (IHL).  Apparently the reports were favorable.   He should be able to approach 40-50 points this season.  

By selecting Tim Connolly 5^th overall, the New York Islanders may have made him a candidate to be drafted in some of the deeper fantasy keeper leagues.  If any other team had picked him, the chances of making the NHL next season would be much slimmer.  At 6’- 180lbs, Connolly has the speed and many of the tools to play next season, but having any success is another matter.

Of all the prospects and veterans selected in either the entry or the expansion draft, many will not be candidates to be taken in all but the deepest fantasy league.  What team selects a player is almost as important as the talent of the player.  All of the top 4 entry draft players are sure bets to make the NHL even as early as this season.  They also have a reasonable expectation of quality ice time if their play deems them worthy. 

The expansion draft players are almost as big a crapshoot for fantasy leaguers as the entry draft.  The preseason will sort many of these problems out, so pay strict attention to see if the likes of Randy Robitaille and Terry Yake can capitalize on a fresh start.  If they or others do, then it will make them valuable in fantasy leagues. 

The Nashville Predators were able to produce 5 players that had 40 or more points on an expansion team.  There is no reason that the Thrashers can’t do the same with the likes of Yake, Stefan and who ever else takes advantage of their newfound opportunities.

Free Agents

July 7, 1999

After July 1st the National Hockey League opened the bidding on restricted and unrestricted free agents.  So far it has been rather dull with many of the better players available resigning with their old clubs before the open bidding even started.  The only free agents that are likely to move are of the unrestricted variety, unless the Rangers try another bold move like they did when they tried and failed to sign Joe Sakic.  Except for Theoren Fleury, the list of unrestricted free agents are for the most part 2^nd line or depth players.  That doesn’t mean many of these players aren’t useful to fantasy owners, because they are.  So pay attention to where the players go because that will make a huge difference on how valuable they are.  Like they say in real estate, the three most important things to remember are location, location and most importantly location!

It is hard to believe fantasy owners that already have Theo Fleury would want him to sign anywhere but with the Colorado Avalanche.  He was impressive after the trade deadline and in all but the last round of the playoffs versus the Dallas Stars.  He is unlikely to get the same offensive chances with players the caliber that he had with the Avalanche.  With them, Fleury could approach 100 points but signing with any other team could mean a loss of at least 10 points over a full season.

Valeri Kamensky was many people’s choice as the next best free agent forward available.  His 98-99 regular season was injury plagued and disappointing with only 44 points in 65 games, but by signing with the Rangers his production should actually be improved.  There are no Forsbergs or Sakics on the Rangers, but he should get quality time on the top line and on the power play.  There is little doubt that Kamensky will rebound with the Rangers and should approach 60 points.

Stephane Quintal parlayed his career year into a huge contract with the Rangers.  He matched his career best in goals (8) and beat it in assists (19) and points (27).  He was the best defenseman, although he was a -24, on a poor Montreal Canadiens club.  It is unrealistic however to expect him to produce 27 points with the Rangers, a more likely total of just over 20 is probable.  He is just not that good of an offensive defenseman!

Andrew Cassels either got old in a hurry with the Flames or he still has something left and on the right team could still produce decent fantasy numbers.  Count on the later, because if he signs with any club with even decent 2^nd line wingers his numbers should improve to the 45-50 point area that they were before his moving to the Flames.  He had 37 points in 70 games this past season on a team that just wasn’t that good offensively.  Unless Cassels resigns with the Flames an improvement of 10-15 points is very possible. 

Joe Juneau may be one of the smartest players off the ice and off but he plays on the perimeter in the regular season and it is questionable if he has the fortitude or intensity a team needed to become a regular on the top line.  He had a lackluster 54 points in 92 playoff and regular season games combined this season.  His 102-point season in 92-93 is a distant memory, but he should be able to chip in with 50-55 points next season on the right team. 

Joe Murphy had 48 points in 76 games with the Sharks last season and found a place on the top line with Damphousse.  He has talent but many have questioned his heart, so be careful if he signs on with a team with a strict coach.  Murphy is a player that could frustrate his coach, which may end with him in the doghouse.  Count on 40 points on most teams; let some one else have the headaches if he signs on in a defensive style system.

The Carolina Hurricanes got a lot out of Ray Sheppard last season.  He had 58 points in 75 regular season games, which was 21 points more than he had the previous season.  He also seemed to fit in with his teammates, something that has not always been the case.  Unless he can sign with an offensive powerhouse like a Colorado or Toronto, resigning with the Hurricanes would be the best for any fantasy owner interested in drafting him.

Wendel Clark had a great season amassing 32 goals in 77 games mostly with Tampa Bay and Detroit.  He had a very disappointing playoff scoring only twice in 10 games with Detroit.  Any fantasy owner drafting Clark, no matter what team he signs with, and expecting another 48 points in 77 games is taking a huge gamble.  Count on 65-70 games and maybe 40 points.

Last year both the Flyers and the Kings were unable to get Steve Duchesne to produce like he had the year before with the Blues.  In the right environment he could still approach 45-50 points not the 30 he had last season.  He did have 6 points in his last 9 games to finish the season but only 2 assists in 6 playoff games.  No question that he still has the offensive ability, but he almost caused the rest of the players on the Kings to mutiny.  If Duchesne has any pride he will rebound from last season no matter what team he signs with.  Count on 45 points and a better attitude!

The Stars corrected their mistake of allowing Juha Lind to return to Finland a year ago.  He had 5 points in his rookie season (1997-98) after totaling 5 points 39 games and added another 4 points in 15 playoff games. He had 39 points last season playing in the Finnish Elite League, a career high.  Good checker with big league speed, a poor man’s Jere Lehtinen.  Should be ready to chip in with 30 points and does have the ability to reach 40 points.

Nelson Emerson is a good quality 3^rd line forward that can move up to the 2^nd line on a weaker squad.  Emerson could easily rebound to 45 points on a team that lacks depth.  Signing with Tampa Bay would actually improve his offensive production.  Count on a journeyman-like performance with whoever signs him. 

The trick on drafting free agents in fantasy hockey is to draft them while they are still playing for a contract.  Most of the free agents that get nice new contracts will not produce the way they did the previous season that got them the big increase in pay in the first place.  It may be useful for fantasy owners to look at what the player produced the year before he was playing for a big new contract! 

Many Goalies Big Break?

July 21, 1999

This off-season has been a big one for some lesser-known goalies to get a chance at making a name for them in the National Hockey League.  With the Atlanta Thrashers joining the league this year it gives another goalie a shot at starting 55-60 games, which can add up to significant fantasy points. 

Most of the goalie moves are not as significant as getting a starting position. Some are just finally moving from starring in the minors to a backup role in the NHL.   Just because the moves don’t appear to be significant does not mean that is the reality.  Often times these young goalies are auditioning for the starting position, which may mean an increase of 30-40 more games played in a season. 

The Philadelphia Flyers finally bit the bullet and ended their long association with Ron Hextall by waiving him.  It appears the odds on favorite to win the spot vacated by Hextall is Brian Boucher. He is a good young goalie that has had knee problems recently but is said to be healthy now.  Boucher has a legitimate shot at playing 20-25 games and if Vanbiesbrouk falters Boucher may find himself as the #1.  He is unproven at the NHL level so watch his progress in Flyers’ training camp and preseason.   Remember when the Flyers got wanted to shake up their goaltending last season they brought up Pelletier not Boucher! 

One of the best goalie prospects the last few years has been the Colorado
Avalanche’s Marc Denis.  Not only is he a lock at being Patrick Roy’s backup this season.  He could be very valuable in keeper leagues with Roy hinting at retirement lately.  Don’t bet on the latter this season, but there is no question that Denis is the goalie of the future.  He should get into about 20 games this season and if he proves himself worthy he may make Roy and his huge contract expendable as early as next season.  More upside than Brian Boucher, but playing behind a hall of famer this season limits his playing time. 

Craig Billington went from the backup in Colorado to being the backup in Washington.  On the surface it appears to be just a lateral move but there is a real chance for him to get an extra 5-10 games with the Capitals. Also he may push Olaf Kolzig into rebounding from a below average season.  Billington is a great team player and very dependable, but if he has to play more than 30 games nest season it will most assuredly be another season out of the playoffs in the nations capital! 

Roberto Luongo has not exactly toiled in junior hockey since the Islanders selected him 4^th overall in the ‘97 entry draft.  He has progressed as expected and has given no signs of not becoming a dominant goalie in the future. Expect Luongo to start the year in the NHL to acclimate him to the pro game.  He’ll probably get into a few games with the Islanders, but not enough to make him a viable fantasy pick this season.  However if you’re in a keeper league and you have a place to “hide” him, do it!

Martin Biron uses the butterfly style that seemingly ever goalie out of Quebec has used in the last decade.  After apprenticing in the AHL the last few years he is ready to play in the NHL as Biron’s brief but effective call-ups last season with the Sabres will attest. He is penciled in as the backup but with Hasek starting to show a bit of wear and tear it is not unthinkable that next season or two Biron may be starting! 

In the Rangers glorious Stanley Cup win in 94-95, the Canuck’s Kirk MacLean was battling Rangers’ Mike Richter.  Both goalies were superb, but that was a long time ago especially for the former Vancouver goalie.  The trading of Cloutier opened up a spot for the unrestricted free agent.  But have no doubts, the number one goalie is Richter and it is questionable whether MacLean can still provide adequate backup netminding over his two year contract. 

The Chicago Blackhawks signed Steve Passmore, an unrestricted goaltender in the Oiler’s organization, supposedly to provide relief to Jocelyn Thibault.  Last season would have to be looked at as a success for Passmore although most of it was spent in the minors, but he looked capable in his 6 games with the Oilers last season.  Not a sure thing but promising future at least as a journeyman netminder. 

Florida muddied the water in regards to their goaltending for next season when they acquired Trevor Kidd via Atlanta.  That however is not a bad thing as Sean Burke and Kirk MacLean provided good but unstable goaltending last season.  Burke won 21 games, but looked shaky at times and it is very questionable whether he can carry a team into the playoffs any longer. 

Trevor Kidd is easily the most promising of the two, although he has already failed to keep the starting goalie job when given the opportunities with Calgary and now Carolina.  If Trevor Kidd can rebound from a poor year, he would be the goalie expected to take the number spot.  Watch what Florida does in preseason to see who takes the starters job.

Roman Turek was traded to the St. Louis Blues after the outgoing joke of an owner from Tampa Bay nixed an agreed upon trade with Dallas.  The ageless Grant Fuhr will probably retire after this season and it is time that an heir apparent was worked into the Blues goaltending rotation.  Fuhr at times last season was outstanding for St. Louis, but it is very likely that Turek will at the very least sharing top billing by the mid point of the season. 

With Ken Wregget’s departure to the motor city, Jean Giguere will be given another chance to at least backup with the Calgary Flames.  He did get into 15 games last season with the Flames, although due to an incredible string of misfortune 7 different goalies got decision last season with the snake bitten club.  If Giguere shows he’s ready in training camp and preseason he could even be the starter.  Strictly a wait and see situation. 

They may have blown getting Roman Turek for hardly anything, but Dan Cloutier is arguably the best number 2 goalie last season.  There is no question he will provide instant credibility for the sad sack organization.  A lot of wins and a great GAA may still be elusive for the next few seasons.  If, however you’re in a league that gives rewards goalies for statistics like save percentage he could be a quality second choice. 

For the last few seasons Ron Tugnutt and Damian Rhodes basically shared the goaltending duties with the Ottawa Senators.  Neither goalie was able to step forward and secure the spot, but with the Rhodes being acquired by the Atlanta Thrashers both goalies will be given the role as the number one goalie with their respective teams.  That could mean an extra 20 starts for both goalies next season, making both decent fantasy choices between the pipes. Of course if your fantasy league values wins above all else for goalies, the expansion Thrashers will provide a lot less opportunities for Rhodes to get wins this season.

Politics does play a part in a goalie getting a chance to show his stuff in the National Hockey League. Before the start last season Arturs Irbe was cast aside by the Vancouver Canucks in favor of Corey Hirsch who is now a long shot at even being a back up in the league.  To be fair to the Canucks, not a lot of other teams were beating a path to Irbe’s door either.  So he signed with Carolina to backup Trevor Kidd, who was a lock as the Hurricanes’ number one.  After Kidd got off to a horrible start and Irbe playing like an all-star in every opportunity he was given, it was not long before Irbe was the number one. 

Looking at a team’s goaltending depth chart may not be the most exciting aspect in getting ready for your fantasy draft, but it is necessary.  The more informed you are about every team; the quicker you will notice a trend or a situation and act upon it!

From Europe with Love?

August 25, 1999

With another team coming in to the National Hockey League this season it is behooves all teams to find players from any place all places that produce hockey players.  That is why more and more teams are increasing their travel budget to fly to the Czech Republic, Germany, Switzerland, Russia etc. So fantasy hockey owners must make themselves as familiar with foreign players that are not household names.  They must also familiarize themselves again with players that left to play in Europe, but have returned to the NHL this season.

The Anaheim Mighty Ducks figure they will finally be able to solve a problem they’ve had since they joined the league, that of a dismal lack of depth.  In their 6 seasons in the league the thing that has stopped them from becoming an elite team has been the lack of depth.  But with the addition of rookies Vitaly Vishnevsky and Maxim Balmochnykh this problem may be a lot closer to being solved this season.

Russian born Maxim Balmochnykh is an average size left-winger but that does not belie his skill.  He has explosive speed and is able to use that to garner offensive chances.  He will eventually help the Ducks powerplay in to becoming one of the most feared in the league.  He also will benefit from the anemic lack of depth the Ducks possess on the left side with only Kariya and Donato ahead of him.  Balmochnykh should, once he acclimatizes himself to the NHL, become a regular on the 2nd line.  In fact there might be times the Ducks will try to have him playing with both Selanne & Kariya. 

All the glowing reports about his ability to shoot and pass like a star should not overshadow the improvement he must make on being a more complete player.  He will show glimpses of great skill, but will be worked in slowly at the start of the season.  If your league allows for flexibility then draft him, but if you’ll be locked into starting him for the whole season then he may to risky.  Forecast Balmochnykh for 30 points, but he will be a hot commodity in keeper leagues.

As good of a prospect as Balmochnykh is, arguably the best prospect on the Ducks is defenseman Vitaly Vishnevsky.  This Russian has good size and a great heart that should be a rock on defense for the Ducks for years.  He might be ready to help quarterback the power play, but will not be rushed in to that duty now that Tverdovsky has been reacquired.  Vishnevsky has excellent mobility and toughness, something that will get him into the lineup to start the season.

The lack of depth on the Ducks blueline will have been addressed if Vishnevsky turns out to be nearly as good as management projects him to be.  Remember young rookie defensemen tend to make lots of mistakes and with the Ducks lack of offense last year, he may be benched in critical times of the game.  
Forecast: With Tverdovsky & Olausson ahead on the depth chart, offensive chances will limit him to 15-20 points.

It is an exaggeration to suggest that foreign-born players don’t want to play in Buffalo.  But with the recent announcement of Dominik Hasek that this season will be his last, that raises the count to at least two players of the impact variety that don’t appear to want to be in Buffalo.  The other player is super prospect Maxim Afinogenov a speedster with the Moscow Dynamo in Russia.  If the Sabres could ever get him to come to the NHL, he could be a game breaker.  He has decent size, but does not like the rough North American style.  His offensive game is ready for the NHL although it doesn’t appear he is as he’s made it known that he is not in a hurry to play in North America. Even if Afinogenov is talked into coming to NHL, he may need some time to acclimatize himself.
Forecast upside 20-30 points, downside stays in Europe.

The Vancouver Canucks hope Finnish right-winger Jarkko Ruutu is ready to help this season, especially now that the twins wont be in the lineup this season.  Ruutu is big, confident and most of all he plays an irritating style of play that will have many opposing players taking retaliation penalties.  He could have played last season, but stayed in Finland when he was able to come to terms on a contract.  Many have compared him to a young Tikkanen, but he is not as skilled offensively.  He does like to hit and is not afraid of initiating the rough stuff.
Forecast: Will be a fan favorite and have an impact but not in many fantasy leagues.

The New York Rangers moves at the Entry Draft in Boston were overshadowed by the moves made by the Vancouver Canucks.  That does not mean that the moves they did do should be overlooked.  In fact acquiring Czech winger Jan Hlavac was probably greeted with little fan fair by Ranger fans, but they will grow to love him quickly. He was an excellent goal scorer over in the Czech Republic.  Hlavac has continued to progress in Europe and the Rangers feel he’s ready to have an impact in the NHL this season. He has good size and ability but is not used to the physical NHL game.  He may make the Savard trade look a lot better sooner than later.
Forecast: At 22 years old he should be able to help the Rangers with 20 points, much more valuable in keeper leagues.

Truth be told Jiri Fischer played in North America last season but he is such a good foreign born prospect that he couldn’t be left off this list.  He is huge and skilled with a big league shot. There is room for him to play on the defense if he is ready. He must play well in preseason to force the Wings to keep him.  He will play for the Red Wings, but with Scotty Bowman’s penchant for bringing youngsters into the lineup very slowly it may take another season or two before Fischer will be a viable fantasy defenseman. 
Forecast: Fischer could be good this year, as long as he makes the team.

At 5’8” and 175lbs Oleg Petrov will not be returning to the Montreal Canadiens with a lot of fan fair, but he may just help.  In his previous incarnation with the team he played in 112 regular season games over 4 NHL seasons and scored 20 goals and assisted on 26.  That works out to about 33 points a season, hardly encouraging fantasy numbers.  There are two reasons to not overlook Petrov this time though.  He has gained a lot of confidence playing in the Swiss League and is much more ready to become a full time player in the NHL.  The other reason that he may be better this time is because the Canadiens are not a very good team and the lack of players that can put the puck in the net is disheartening.  Forecast:  A real good shot at 15 goals and 25 assists could make Petrov a late sleeper pick in most fantasy leagues.

A virtual unknown to NHL fans Jiri Dopita should reward the Florida Panthers with a solid rookie season.  Unknown and rookie are two words that would not describe how he was revered in his homeland.  He was a hero in the Czech league where he recorded 17 goals 29 assists for 46 points.  That was good for 13th in Czech league scoring, behind such "names" as former Bruin disappointment Vladimir Ruzicka (22-29-51) and NYR Jan Hlavac (30-20-50). 

Dopita is a huge (6'3") center that 2 other NHL teams had failed to entice over before and being in his early 30's it's a big "if" whether he will be able to adapt.  But with Florida becoming so Euro friendly it should make it a little easier.  He is good skater and playmaker and does use his size.  He appears a lock to be the 3^rd center, but if he adjusts could very well be the # 2, by even the start of the season.  Don’t draft him expecting 50 points, but if you can get him really cheap he will be a good gamble!
Forecast: He will show signs of what a great player he was, but he is definitely past his prime. There also has been a disturbing trend downward in his point production in the Czech league.

The preseason will help determine if some of these foreign players will be able to compete during the regular season.  Plus looking at a player’s statistics from their previous leagues is useful when put in perspective, but the caliber of play of the league must also be looked at.  A player having success in the Swedish League is much more impressive than Oleg Petrov leading the Swiss League! 

Another thing to remember is that timing and location will also be major factors on whether any player will have success on a team.  If Jiri Dopita does get a chance to play on a line with Pavel Bure as is rumored then he could surprisingly valuable in fantasy leagues.  Everyone likes to find a sleeper that gets 60 points but for most, the sleeper pick turns out to be a dud.  So do some research on foreign players and find out if there particular style of play will lend itself to adapting to the NHL.  The league is littered with players that starred in their homeland, but were unable to adapt to the smaller ice surfaces, tight checking and physical play.  Remember the National Hockey League is the best league in the world.

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month ##, 1999

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