Mr. Shark's ARTICLES
| Article - directory | UNSUNG PLAYERS | ROOKIES | HEAVYWEIGHTS |
| OVERACHIEVERS | LINE-TRENDS | MIDSEASON STRATEGY | INJURIES |
November 29th, 1998
The start of the NHL season fills every Fantasy hockey owner with optimism. This is the year that all the long shots you took a chance on will come through. The player that always gets injured will not miss a game and produce the whole season. Time to step back into reality!
It’s that time of the season when Fantasy hockey owners take off their rose colored glasses and see some of the gaping holes they have on their own team. Reality check, New York Rangers forward Niklas Sundstrom with 7 points after his first 18 games is not the Second Coming of Peter Forsberg. Tampa Bay’s Vincent Lecavalier, first overall pick in last June’s Entry Draft, can not be compared to Claude Lemieux let alone Mario! Detroit’s over-rated superstar Sergei Fedorov will not do what it takes to win another Hart Trophy.
Have no fear there are probably some unsung players available that may not have been drafted in your pool the first time around.
Marty McInnis, Anaheim Mighty Ducks - After being traded twice in one day who would blame you if you got the sense no one wanted you, but McInnis has played with desire and been successful on a thin Duck team. Anaheim’s depth is such that McInnis will get time on the power-play and play on the second line. With 17 points after his first 21 games, Marty may finally break the 50 point barrier. He has had a history of being in the doghouse on previous teams, so be careful.
Valeri Bure, Calgary Flames - This Bure is actually playing for his team and with 15 points after just 22 games he is helping out an offensively weak Flames team. Pavel’s little brother will never be a superstar, but he may get you 45 - 50 points with better ice time and a bit more grit. At 25 years old, it appears that Valeri will step from his brother’s shadow and become a legitimate second line player.
Andrei Kovalenko, Edmonton Oilers - Mr. Kovalenko will give most fantasy owners GM’s grey hair before their time. He is built like a Russian tank and has great talent and intelligence. Unfortunately he has been horribly inconsistent throughout his career. Last year disaster finally scared off even the bravest fantasy owner. This season he has rebounded surprisingly with 17 points in 20 games and has been on the top line almost from the start. He has reached the 50 - 60 point range before, he may just do it again. The Oilers are one of the few teams that have the patience to put up with a player like this, so he is given opportunities there that would be nonexistent on other teams.
Joseph Beranek, Edmonton Oilers - Any fantasy owner that picked Joseph to be this good is either a liar or should be handed the 1st prize money now! Beranek has been nothing short of sensational even before the loss of Doug Weight to a knee injury. He has been on the top line most of the season and it has been a toss up to who has been the bigger surprise between Beranek and Kovalenko. He is on a scorching 78 point pace, those are lofty numbers for a player that looked to be out of the league. The way he is playing he could reach the 50 point mark, which would make the Oilers very happy. Long term this guys too much of a gamble and fantasy owners would do well to try to unload him at the first good opportunity.
Rob Niedermayer, Florida Panthers - There are many reasons not to take Rob, he is hurt all the time and has been slow to fulfill the potential that everyone saw in him. There is however, one huge reason to take him, he has all the talent in the world. With power forward size and major league speed and hands this guy could blossom over night. He had a slow start, but most recently has come on to reach 12 points in 20 games played. This may be the year Rob Niedermayer takes it too the next level, so if you’re in a keeper league he may be the best of the bunch. Rob has the talent to reach 70 points but be happy with a more realistic 50!
Todd Harvey, New York Rangers - The Dallas Stars finally gave up on Todd last year shipping him to the Rangers. Todd is a gritty hard working forward that has good skills but has been inconsistent at various times in his career. The Rangers need Harvey to reach his potential; that may mean 20 goals and 50 points. He has shown flashes this year and after 18 games has already gotten 13 points. He is talented enough to play with Gretzky in a mucker role, getting garbage goals by standing in front of the net. More likely he’ll be on the second or third line.
Cliff Ronning, Nashville Predators - The pint-size Ronning has been on fire since joining the Predators in an early season trade from Phoenix. He has 17 points in 19 games, with most of those points coming with Nashville. Cliff is getting a lot of powerplay time and he is producing. He has averaged over 57 points the last three seasons and is the closest thing to a sure bet that the Predators have. Expect him to reach 60 points this season.
Keith Jones, Philadelphia Flyers - There are not too many players that would get traded from an offensive powerhouse and thank their lucky stars. Well with Keith ending up on the Lindros – Leclair line, he is thanking everyone. He is getting the chances to play with skilled players he was not receiving in Colorado. There is a danger that if he is removed from the top line his points will dry up. The Flyers have tried so many players with the big two, that when they get success they’re not going to tamper with them. Jones has gotten only 12 points in 17 games, but has been on fire with the Flyers. He is bit of a gamble, but he may reach 60 points this season.
Marco Sturm, San Jose Sharks - Marco is only beginning his sophomore season with the Sharks and has chipped in with 11 points in 20 games. He is a prototypical European forward with little grit but a good sense of what to do with a puck when he gets it. Sturm is going to get better and may one day get to the 60 point level, but not this year. If you have a lot of risky players already and need a dependable 45 point forward this is your guy.
Darcy Tucker, Tampa Bay Lightning - This scrappy checker is the kind of tenacious pest that teams hate to play against, but love to play with. The Lightning is a team with a lot of veterans and some youth that is on the rise. Tucker is an important part of the youth that will help continue Tampa’s slow but steady climb out of the NHL’s basement. Darcy has scored at every level he’s played in except in the NHL. He has had a good start with 12 points in his first 21 games. Tucker is never going to score 50 goals, but he has the talent to get 40 - 50 points this season.
Adrian Aucoin, Vancouver Canucks - Adrian got his big break this season with the holdout of fan favorite Bryan McCabe. He has always had the tools, but not the consistency or the grit to excel at the NHL level. At 25 years old he is proving the old saying the defensemen don’t reach their potential until they’re mid 20’s. Adrian already has 15 points after only 22 games, already achieving a career best in goals. His dismal 97 - 98 season total of 6 points in 35 games, is a distant memory. More importantly he has confidence in his booming point shot and Vancouver’s head coach Mike Keenan is giving him loads of ice time. Expect at least 35 points from the Canuck’s vastly improved rearguard.
Remember many Fantasy hockey GM’s forget to look at points per game when picking up new players mid season. A player like Washington Capitals forward Richard Zednik may be overlooked with only 3 points in 6 games. A combination of injuries and a 4 game suspension have not helped his early season point totals. Don’t forget last season’s playoff heroics. He has speed and talent to burn and could still reach 40 points in the remainder of the season, which would make him pretty valuable as a mid season pickup.
So start filling those gaping holes, because it’s not too late to rebound from a poor start. A lot of the players that have had great starts will come back down to Earth, which in turn will bring the Fantasy Hockey teams that have them back down too!
A good Fantasy team that is neglected will soon become a poor Fantasy team. It is much harder to fix mistakes, but it can be done.
December 2nd, 1998
Every successful Fantasy hockey owner learns by experience that picking a lot of rookies is no way to win a pool. Rookies are like lottery tickets, its fun to have one or two, but don’t use them as part of your retirement plan. If you have too many rookies your fantasy team will go through what NHL teams do with an overly large number of rookies, growing pains! This may be fine for keeper leagues, but in one-year pools it will ensure your place out of the money. There are no rookies that are dominating the league; in fact the Calder Trophy is very much up for grabs.
Rookies in the National Hockey League are usually the hardest to get a read on compared with any other sport. In general NHL rookies are young and unproven at the pro level. These players have to make a huge adjustment from playing with teenagers to playing with men. So it’s no surprise that teams like to bring these types of players along slowly as is demonstrated with the Lightning’s Vincent Lecavalier. He is playing about 12 minutes a game for Tampa Bay and is not projected to have his ice-time increased anytime soon.
Then there are the other rookies, the older ones that have played College or University hockey. The player coming from this situation has been playing with men, but usually is not prepared for the grind of a long NHL season. Players such as Vancouver’s Bill Muckalt who played in 46 games for the University of Michigan last season often hit the "wall" during the season. College players take a season or two to adjust to the pro game. The NHL season also can wear down the player coming over from Europe for the first time.
There are however a few rookies that Fantasy owners may want to keep an eye on, if not for this season, at least for the future. Some of these players will come on and may even dominate as the season goes on like Samsonov did last season to win the Calder. But many more will fold and spend time in the minors. So here’s a look at some rookies that you should be aware of.
Bill Muckalt, Vancouver Canucks – Currently leading the rookie scoring race with 14 points after 23 games. This Michigan grad is proving he belongs in the league. Muckalt has big time speed and a shot to go with it. He is being used in all situations and has been thriving. The only real knock has been an occasional give-away that has on occasion cost the Canucks a game. He looks to be one of the early season favourites to challenge for the Calder. He should have little problem hitting 45 points this season, but within a few seasons should be close to a point a game. Although he may not have the most potential, Bill is the safest pick among the rookies.
Milan Hejduk, Colorado Avalanche - Milan has moved up to 2nd in the rookie-scoring race. With 13 points after 21 games he is one of the few bright spots with a disappointing Avalanche team. The area of concern for this promising Czech born player is size. Listed at 6’ and 165 lbs. he has little room to lose weight, which can be a serious problem for slightly built players over a long season. The talent is there but will Hedjuk’s body be able to handle the nearly 16 minutes of ice time he is averaging a game. Watch for him to put up good numbers but falter by the 60 game mark. He may hit 60 points if his body holds up, but count on 45 points.
Mark Parrish, Florida Panthers - Mark caught everyone’s attention early with 4 goals in one game. He stands third in rookie scoring with 12 points after 21 games. He had a great rookie year as an overager with the major junior Seattle T-Birds of the WHL, after playing the previous season in the WCHA. He has scored goals wherever he’s been and with 9 goals so far looks to be able to score at the NHL level also. Parrish appears to have slowed from his early season success, and like the Panthers, he may have been overachieving. On a weak Florida team he will get more opportunities than he’d get on a team like Detroit. That being said he probably will have a dry spell and be lucky to hit 40 points. Mark will be a good goal scorer for the Panthers, but don’t pin your fantasy pool hopes on him, yet!
Mike Watt, NY Islanders - Mike was traded by Edmonton during the summer for goalie Eric Fichaud. He has been a pleasant surprise for the Islanders this season. He has great skill and speed for a 6’2" 212 lbs. forward. Watt has recorded 10 points in 21 games and appears ready to make the jump full-time to the NHL after a brief stint last year with the Oilers. The concern for poolsters interested in picking up Mike is his limited playing time. With an average of barely 11 minutes a game, which should decrease even more with Zigmund Palffy’s return, this should scare off all but the bravest Fantasy hockey owner. Project him to get 25 points if he stays with New York.
Tomas Kaberle, Toronto Maple Leafs -Tomas came out of nowhere to bolster the Leaf’s defense. Born in the Czech Republic, he has good size at 6’2" and 200 lbs. Kaberle is playing over 20 minutes a game for a surprising Toronto team. He already has 10 points after only 22 games to lead all rookie defensemen in scoring. Watch for rookie defensive mistakes to force coach Pat Quinn to cut back his ice time drastically in the last part of the season. Count on 25 points this season, but look for 35 next year.
Chris Drury, Colorado Avalanche - Drury beat out the Canuck’s Bill Muckalt for the Hobey Baker award given to the top college player. However, he will not be as suited to the pro game as is Muckalt. Chris has exceptional speed but is a bit on the small side at 5’10" 195lbs. He probably will be played sparingly at times due to Colorado’s forward depth. He has 9 points in 18 games, but is playing less than 11 minutes a game. If he is able to crack either of the top two lines watch for him to challenge for the Calder, otherwise he may be hard pressed to crack 30 points.
Mike Maneluk, Chicago Blackhawks – Mike started the season with Philly and even saw limited time on the "Legion of Doom", but was traded to the Blackhawks for the often traded Roman Vopat. He is 5’11" and 190 lbs., but he is blessed with NHL offensive tools. The problem is he can be a liability in his own zone. He has 9 points in 19 games and might very well see some time in the pressbox or the minors by the end of the season. Maneluk was the MVP in the American Hockey League’s playoffs last year, but he still needs some seasoning to be considered a legitimate Fantasy player. The Blackhawks shouldn’t count on more than 25 points this season and neither should you.
Olli Jokinen, Los Angeles Kings - Olli spent most of last year in Finland, because he wasn’t ready for the National Hockey League. He has 8 points in 11 games, but has been averaging an outstanding 17 minutes a game due to Jozef Stumpel’s various injuries keeping him from racking up his usual amount of ice-time. Olli has a chance to be a poor man’s Peter Forsberg. He has the size and the tools to be a force in the league. The Canucks are rumored to have asked for Jokinen to be included in any Pavel Bure trade. This King is the best bet to win the rookie scoring race and the Calder Trophy. He could very easily get 90 points, but not this year. Be happy with 55 points, this guy will be a star.
Brendan Morrison, New Jersey Devils - Brendan is one of those rookies that may get better as the season progresses. He is a past Hobey Baker winner, but with only 8 points in 18 games he will have to step it up to win the Calder. The Devils are not most Fantasy owner’s first choice for producing gifted offensive forwards. Although New Jersey seems to have opened up their game a bit more than last year, it still wouldn’t hurt if Morrison were traded to another team. Count on 40 points with the Devils, but more with another team.
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning - Vincent will have to wait a little longer to be the "Michael Jordan of hockey". The Lightning’s naive but well-meaning owner put an unduly large amount of pressure on this physically immature kid. He is 6’3" but only 180 lbs., and is seeing limited ice time. He has produced an unremarkable 5 points in 22 games. Lecavalier may well become one of the best players in the NHL some day, but for now he still has a long ways to go to even be considered the best rookie. Project him to get 25 points this year, but he could easily double that in his sophomore year. So if you’re in a keeper league, you may want to bite the bullet and hold on to him.
Eric Brewer, New York Islanders – The Islanders have found themselves another stud defenseman. At 6’4" and 210 lbs. this 19-year-old will be a future all-star. He has recorded a respectable 4 points in 16 games with limited action, and is still a few years from being the force all are projecting him to be. Almost any team that talks trade with the Islanders wants him included, so don’t be too surprised if he’s involved in a big trade. He will have trouble reaching 20 points this season unless his address changes.
None of the players above will win a pool for a Fantasy hockey owner but they could easily help lose it for you if too many are combined together. Picking rookies is exciting, especially if you guess right, but the odds are stacked against you. For fantasy leagues that are one year in length, time is a luxury that you don’t have. So be conservative when picking rookies, let your competitors go for the homerun. More often than not they will strike out!
December 9, 1998
Most Fantasy leagues have a spot for the "policemen" of the NHL. These are the players that are on their respective teams to protect the stars from the other teams enforcers. In the 70’s and 80’s many of these players could do little more than fight, but now a days with the shrinking line-ups these players must be able to help their teams in other facets of the game. In other words these goons must be able to play hockey not just fight.
There tends to be a short shelf life for the career of the hockey fighter, especially for the one-dimensional player. This old saying sums it up the best "mushers who think their rushers soon become ushers". In other words many enforcers forget what got them to the National Hockey League and or they just get tired of fighting, either way they will soon be of little use to their team. Troy Crowder is an example of what happens to many of these players. In the early 90’s he was one of the most feared fighters in the game. Then he lost the will to fight and soon became a player that was moved to teams hoping they could rejuvenate his spirit. None could and it eventually cut short a promising career as a NHL heavy weight.
So when you’re looking for a penalty minute producer, pick a guy that appears to enjoy his role. Otherwise you’ll get a player going through the motions, but if his heart is not in it his role will soon diminish. Fighters are a dime a dozen, but the true heavy weights that can protect their teams over many seasons are like gold.
Please note that the following statistics are official through Dec. 7th games.
Gino Odjick, NY Islanders - He was traded by Vancouver’s Mike Keenan during last years purge of existing players. Odjick is currently the runaway penalty minute leader with 133 in just 22 games played. No other player has hit the century mark in minutes. The Islanders are also getting some unexpected early season production in the goal (4) and point (7) department. Odjick has apparently come to grips with his off ice problems and is fitting in well with New York. Gino Odjick is most valuable when he is creating open ice for his line-mates. He is currently sidelined with an abdominal strain that is expected to sideline him until the third week of December. Count on him approaching the 300-minute mark in penalties, however that may not be enough to lead the league in pims.
Donald Brashear, Vancouver Canucks - Only 18th in the NHL with 63 minutes in penalties he is getting an unheard of 11-12 minutes of ice time a game. He has been noticeably quiet in the fighting department, but remember he finished first last season with 372 minutes. Brashear is the reigning champion and as such some players have shied away from taking him on. His ice time will be reduced with the eventual return of Todd Bertuzzi, Alex Mogilny and the trading of Pavel Bure. The drop off in ice time will be a positive for Fantasy owners that have him because he will be fresher and meaner. He will make a move up the list and pass the 300-minute milestone again.
Peter Worrell, Florida Panthers - This Panther is not a gentle giant, in fact he is tied for the lead in major penalties with 11 in just 19 games. He is also second in the National Hockey League with 91 pims. Worrell is receiving limited ice time at barely 5 minutes per game; this is a sign that he is a very one-dimensional enforcer. The danger for Fantasy owners is Florida’s other tough guy Paul Laus. In games that only one tough guy may be needed Worrell will be the player sitting. Count on a lot of minutes in the penalty box per game, but be wary of missed games. He should still achieve 250 minutes this season, but if Florida stays in the playoff hunt he will get less ice time.
Paul Laus, Florida Panthers - Florida’s other enforcer is one of the most feared if not under-rated enforcers in the NHL. Season after season this blue-liner has intimidated opposing forwards who may wander to close to the Panther’s net. Laus is a dependable top 5 penalty leader and plays a position that will ensure more ice time than most of the other enforcers will get. He is currently 5th in penalty minutes, but unlike many enforcers he is more than just a fighter. Count on him to be able to maintain his current penalty minute pace and approach 300 minutes.
Tie Domi, Toronto Maple Leafs - This Leaf is a fan favorite with every team he’s played with. He is short, stocky and an eager fighter who never seems to get tired of fighting. He does lose the odd fight, but a player that does better him once should prepare to go at it again probably that game. Domi is a showman that loves to play to the crowd, but is a very dependable enforcer. He is currently only 10th in penalties, but this tenacious enforcer will move up the list and should challenge for the overall lead by the end of the season. Domi was second to Brashear in pims last season, he should be able to reach the mid 300’s this season.
Jeff Odgers, Colorado Avalanche - The Avalanche have been looking for an enforcer since trading away Chris Simon, it seems they have found one in Jeff Odgers. He is a team guy that will do what is expected of him, but he’s not a true heavy weight. Colorado can expect him to show up to a fight, even though he is more of a checker. Odgers is 6th with 86 penalty minutes in 24 games and since the Avalanche need toughness he will be useful to Fantasy owners. He would be the second enforcer on many teams, so he is being used in a role that may not be suited to him. A guy with a huge heart, but he should fall down the list and have trouble getting 250 penalty minutes. If you can trade him for a safer enforcer, do it.
Bob Probert, Chicago Blackhawks - In his prime he was the undisputed heavy weight in the National Hockey League. He could also put up outstanding offensive numbers for an enforcer. In his best year he got career highs in goals (29), assists (33), points (62) and pims (398). He still can put up decent offensive numbers for an enforcer, but he’s lived life hard and was hurt most of last season. You can expect him to approach 300 penalty minutes if he stays healthy, but that’s a big if! Probert is an old enforcer and it is debatable if he can keep up his good early season pace of 3.7 pims a game. Let some one else get the headaches.
Matt Johnson, Los Angeles Kings - This King is eligible to return December 22nd against Pittsburgh after serving a 12 game suspension for a cheap shot. Johnson is only 40th for penalty minutes, but he is on a pace to get 250 minutes over a full season. Of course with the suspension he won’t play 82 games, but he loves to fight and could easily move into the top 15. The knock on him is he may be too much of a loose cannon and get suspended again. Take the chance on him as soon as he’s ready to come back.
Craig Berube, Washington Capitals - Tied for 2nd in pims with 91 and on pace to reach an incredible 350 minutes. Berube is a tough player that is likely to be a team’s number two tough guy not their number one. The Capitals real heavy weight is Chris Simon who is 42nd with 48 penalty minutes. If you must take a goon from Washington take the talented Simon, leave Berube and his probable 180 – 200 pims to someone else in your league.
Patrick Cote, Nashville Predators – This promising rookie enforcer is learning the ropes from Denny Lambert a teammate that is a top-notch enforcer in his own right. Cote is 11th with 74 minutes in penalties and he is a capable and willing fighter with 10 majors after only playing 18 games. The danger with him is his paltry 3 minutes of ice time a game, that is a player that is very expendable and may see his fair share of pressbox action! He is too much of a risk this season, but if you have him or must get him, count on 200 minutes. He will be a great heavy weight but give him time to mature, because the Predators sure will!
Tony Twist, St. Louis Blues - This enforcer probably scares his own teammates. Twist has spent some seasons in the minors building a reputation that would have some players suggesting this guy is a little off. Well the Blues are happy he’s on their team and any Fantasy owner that has him will be too. He’s only 21st with 60 penalty minutes but he should approach 250 penalty minutes this season. The danger with Twist is that he will more than likely get suspended at least once a season for "losing" it on a player or even an official.
Krzysztof Oliwa, New Jersey Devils – As a rookie last season with New Jersey he amassed 295 penalty minutes in 73 games, good for 3rd place overall. Oliwa is from Poland and shreds the myth that Europeans are soft. He has only 57 minutes this season which puts him 24th in pims, but count on him to move up the list fast when he does get rolling. He is more than capable of achieving 250 penalty minutes in a season, and if given the chance may break 300. A risky enforcer when compared to Probert, but a greater up side for the brave Fantasy owner.
The danger with most enforcers including the ones listed above is that they are fourth-liners that may and often are expendable. When a team needs to protect a lead or make a comeback these players are often benched in favor of their more skilled teammates. That’s why enforcers like the Panthers Paul Laus and the Leafs Tie Domi are so valuable to Fantasy hockey owners. Dependability is not a trait attributed to fighters very often but it is highly valued when an enforcer has it.
December 16, 1998
What does a Fantasy owner do when some of his/her players are off to an unexpected fast start? Trade the player for the best offer or maybe try to ride your newfound star’s hot streak till the end of the year? Is the player an overachiever, or a player that is finally going to fulfill his potential? Every owner in every Fantasy league has gone through these types of dilemmas.
The player off to a fast start may be like the Boston Bruins Jason Allison of a year ago. A player that with his old club the Washington Capitals only produced 29 points in 86 games. But thanks to a trade and a fresh start Allison has 117 points in only 126 games with the Bruins. This is a perfect example of a player that always had potential but due to injuries; circumstance or any myriad of other reasons needed a change of address.
Please note that the following statistics are official through December 13th games.
Bill Guerin, Edmonton Oilers - One of this season’s examples of a player that needed a change is Bill Guerin of the Edmonton Oilers. His best offensive output was in 95-96 when he produced an unremarkable 53 points in 80 games with the defense-at-any-cost New Jersey Devils. The last few seasons he has had trouble fulfilling the promise he’d shown early in his career. This season is another matter for Guerin now that he feels more comfortable in his offensive role. He is on pace to shatter his career high for points with an Edmonton Oiler team built on speed. Hold on to Guerin and he should reward your Fantasy team with 60 - 70 points.
Pavol Demitra, St. Louis Blues - The Blues got a good season from him in 1997-98, when he broke-out with 52 points in 61 games. This season he already has 27 points in 24 games and if he can hold up to a full season could easily best his career highs of last season. That is a big if, due to injuries or spending time in the minors he’s never played more than 61 games in 5 seasons. Since he probably has little market value in your Fantasy league you would be better off keeping him and his 75 points. The Blues will continue to see great things from Demitra and he should reward Fantasy owners especially in keeper leagues.
Greg Johnson, Nashville Predators - The Predators did very well in claiming him in their Expansion Draft in the off season. He has been a steady if unspectacular point producer for them this season with 17 points in 26 games. He is proving to be a decent playmaker, but with Nashville trading for a more proficient playmaker in Cliff Ronning this may limit his point totals a bit. He should still reach his career high of 40 points and may even near 50 points.
Steve Rucchin, Anaheim Mighty Ducks – There were many hockey people disappointed with Paul Kariya’s short season last year, but Rucchin may have been at the top of that list. After having a break through season in 96-97 centering the Dynamic Duo of Kariya and Teemu Selanne, he cooled off considerably last season. Now that the threesome is reunited, Rucchin’s point totals have blossomed. With 25 points in 28 games, he’s on pace for 75 points. The danger with Rucchin is obvious; his points will dry up if he isn’t on the big line. Thankfully for Rucchin no center on the Mighty Ducks has proven to be as dependable. Fantasy owners should expect him to keep up his early season pace and finish with 70 points.
Markus Naslund, Vancouver Canucks – The Penguins thought they had another great player when they first drafted him. Due to inconsistency, a fragile confidence and an unwillingness to play in traffic he was traded to the Canucks. In his first few seasons with the Canucks things got even worse. At the start of this season Coach Keenan was even questioning his mental toughness and was playing him accordingly. Then due to injuries to teammates he started to play on the top line. He has been spectacular and more importantly shown consistency. He has 23 points in 26 games which is on pace to exceed 70 points. That would be a stretch but he should get 60 points.
Martin Straka, Pittsburgh Penguins – Blessed with blazing speed that can see him go end to end, he has partnered with Jagr to help fill some of the void of Ron Francis’s departure to Carolina. Straka actually looks like he’s ready to do something with his speed not just skate around until he loses it like he has done in the past. He’s on a pace to get 95 points, which would be a minor miracle. He looks great and as long as Jagr isn’t traded he should reach 75 points.
Not every player off to an unusually good start will keep it up like Jason Allison did for the Boston Bruins last year. Most will be like the Montreal Canadiens’ Shayne Corson who recorded 39 points in 41 games, but only recorded 16 more points in an injury-plagued second half. Fantasy owners should have seen Corson’s collapse coming due to his history. The players below may mirror Corson in their reasons for collapsing or they may find entirely new reasons for finishing poorly. Either way they all are to be kept or traded for at your own risk.
Sergei Krivokrasov, Nashville Predators - This Predator has had a great start for his new team after being a headache for the Blackhawks since he was drafted by them in the 92 Entry-Draft. He always appeared to have some offensive ability, but never the intensity to compete at a NHL level. Krivokrasov had 12 points in 12 games and was off to a great start for Nashville, but in his last 15 games has only produced 7 points. He should still better his career best of 24 points, but it should tell a Fantasy owner something if an anemic Chicago team gave up on him. Look for Krivokrasov to spend a lot of time in the doghouse and finish poorly and a long shot to reach 40 points!
Wendel Clark, Tampa Bay Lightning - At one time he was considered the toughest player pound for pound in the NHL. He is a 32-year-old power forward with too many miles on him. In his 13-year career he has averaged nearly 30 missed games a season. Clark is just too fragile for his all out style of play to hold up to a full season. Off to a great start with Tampa Bay at 19 points in 26 games this will only encourage some foolhardy Fantasy owner to keep him. Unload him or you’ll be scanning the injury reports to see how long he’ll be out. The Lightning we’ll be lucky to get 45 points out of him.
Mark Messier, Vancouver Canucks - At one time he was considered the best captain in all of pro sports. In 1994 he led the New York Rangers to their first Stanley Cup since 1940. Now in his second year with the Canucks he has recaptured some of his old scoring touch which had been nonexistent last season. Messier has 29 points in 28 games, but one worrisome problem is starting to appear again. He has been suffering from back spasms that seriously limited his effectiveness in the December 12th game against the Kings. A bad back at any age is a problem, but Messier is nearing his 38th birthday. He had 60 points last year in what was a bad season by his standards. This season he may reach 70 points, but try to trade him to a sentimental Ranger fan in your Fantasy hockey league!
Luc Robitaille, Los Angeles Kings – After finding the fountain of youth this season, a 32 year old Robitaille has surprised everyone with 26 points in 29 games with an undermanned LA team. He is on pace to exceed 70 points this year, but since he has not achieved that level in his last 4 seasons it would be a huge risk for any Fantasy owner to expect it. Count on his ice-time and role to be diminished and with that he will be "lucky" to get 60 and maybe even slide to 50 points by season’s end.
Ray Sheppard, Carolina Hurricanes – The Hurricanes have gotten a lot out of their impending free agent. With 25 points in 29 games, Sheppard is on pace to get 70 points this season. He hasn’t had more than 60 points since his 93-94 season with the Red Wings, and even being much more motivated to play well will not be enough to help him this year. He should start to slow by February if the injury bug doesn’t get him first.
Alexei Zhamnov, Chicago Blackhawks – With 25 points in 28 games he is on pace for 73 points this season. Don’t count on it, this player makes Nashville’s Sergei Krivokrasov look like the most dedicated player in the league. Zhamnov has the talent to get 90 points, but the work habits of your average beer-leaguer. If his teammates can’t figure this guy out, do you really want to try? Keep him on your roster, but if you can, trade him for a player like the Hurricanes’ Sami Kapanen. Otherwise count on 55 points if the Blackhawks don’t unload him.
Shawn McEachern, Ottawa Senators - He has produced an awesome 17 goals and chipped in with 6 assists in only 26 games for the Senators. He has had the luxury of playing with the most under-rated superstar in Alexei Yashin. Unfortunately for the 29 year old McEachern, he is not the future he’s the present. The future for Ottawa is rookie forward and junior phenom Marian Hossa. Now that Hossa has recovered from the injury to his ACL he will be given opportunities to play with Yashin, most likely at McEachern’s expense. Count on some dry spells that will slow his 70 point pace, but he should still match last year’s total of 48 points.
If a Fantasy owner trades a player off to a great start that player may come back and haunt you or by not trading him he may haunt you even more. Either way whatever a Fantasy owner does in this situation could very well make or break his or her season. Remember there are a lot more players having weak finishes to a season than players like Jason Allison who are able to finish just as strong as they started!
December 30th, 1998
Now that the Christmas break is over, the National Hockey League and Fantasy leagues can get back to business. The Fantasy owner has to be aware of some important line combination developments. It’s true that throughout a season lines rarely stay together, without at least some juggling. That doesn’t mean line combinations are not important to keep track of. The better informed you are the more likely you’ll be leading the pack in your Fantasy league.
The days of the big lines staying together ala the Los Angeles Kings "Triple Crown" line with Dionne-Simmer-Taylor, the "French Connection" line of Perreault-Robert-Martin or the most recent example, the "Legion of Doom" line starred Eric Lindros-John Leclair-Mikael Renberg. These lines work well if there is some depth on the rest of the team. But if the opposition team can key on that line, without fear of the second line, then the big line will be shutdown at the most important times.
Wayne Gretzky had a lot of his success in Edmonton Oilers due to a future hall-of-fame line-mate Jari Kurri. But some people don’t give enough importance to how the second line starring Mark Messier and Glenn Anderson also added to Gretzky’s success. An affective second line will take some of the scoring pressure off the top line and also take some of the checking.
NHL teams have all experienced how moving one player on to a line can send shock waves through other lines and affect the whole team as well. Sometimes this is a positive as the New Jersey Devils found out recently when they replaced Dennis Pederson with Patrik Elias on a line with Jason Arnott and Petr Sykora. The line has produced well, but more importantly taken some of the scoring pressure off Bobby Holik’s line.
As of games played through December 6th Jason Arnott, Patrik Elias & Petr Sykora were scoring at a 39, 39 & 55 point pace respectively. But as of games played through December 28th these players have shown a lot of improvement. In that short span Arnott scored at a 55 point pace, Elias at a 73 point pace & Sykora an incredible 90 point pace. Will these three players keep up this pace? Possibly, but not very likely, but they can still be quite valuable.
A Fantasy owner that spotted the success of the Devils newly formed line quick enough may have gained some points. At the end of a long season a few points here and there make all the difference.
The New York Rangers also experienced how one player can affect a roster when they added Petr Nedved in a trade for Kovalev. Petr Nedved has been a contractual headache for almost every NHL team he has played on, but at the same time he has been a very good point producer. He sat out all of last season with the Penguins and missed close to 20 games this season. He is on a 105 point pace, with 18 points in 14 games played with the Rangers as of December 28th.
Adding Nedved to the New York Ranger’s mix helps Fantasy owners that have other players on that NHL team. For example, Niklas Sundstrom had a dismal start to the season with 3 points in his first 13 games, but since November 8th he has produced at a very respectable 73 point pace. Much of which has been alongside Nedved. Forward line-mates are not the only ones helped, as witnessed by Brian Leetch’s improvement. Over the same period of time his pace has gone from 50 points to over 60 points.
Some Fantasy league owners feel threatened when a good player gets traded to a team they have a player on. The first reaction of the Philadelphia Flyer’s re-acquisition of Renberg may have been negative for some Fantasy owners that had Rod Brind’Amour. What these owners may have overlooked is Renberg’s presence may add scoring to the teams powerplay and Brind’Amour will still get his share of time on the powerplay. Since Renberg’s arrival, Brind’Amour has kept up his point a game pace.
When a trade or major line shuffling occurs, it is not always the key components that are affected. Often times players peripherally involved are helped by the change. Fantasy owners will have to be very aware of this when, for example, the Pavel Bure trade finally happens. The trade will have major ramifications for the team getting him and also on the Vancouver Canucks. Bure will boost his new team’s scoring and should help his new teammates. In the 91-92 season Igor Larionov, now with Detroit, helped Bure adjust in his rookie season. In the process Bure helped Larionov almost double his points to 65 points from his previous season.
Another player that will have a significant factor on his team’s line-up is not currently playing in the NHL. Colorado Avalanche’s offensive defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh is holding out for a better contract, which so far has fallen on deaf ears. It is hard to believe Ozolinsh would be traded from a team so short of NHL caliber defensemen, but this team has been dumping salaries for the past few years, e.g. Mike Ricci & Mike Keane.
The Avalanche will more than likely find a way to keep him and by doing so should bolster a powerplay that could at any one time employ Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Valeri Kamensky, Sandis Ozolinsh & Claude Lemieux tormenting the other team’s penalty killers. Ozolinsh is also great at getting the puck out of his end and up to his forwards or carrying the puck himself to create scoring chances.
Can minor deals like the recent Nelson Emerson of Carolina Hurricanes to the Chicago Blackhawks for the ailing Paul Coffey help Fantasy leaguers? It may help boost Chicago’s offense that stood 23rd overall and a powerplay that ranked tied for 8th with seven other teams as of December 28th. Emerson is the kind of player that may add a few points to some Fantasy owner’s team. He will most likely start off hot and if he gets to play on one of the top two lines he may help some of the Blackhawks not producing. He is listed as a right-winger, but can play any forward position. Take note of Emerson’s new home, because he’d fallen out of favor in Carolina.
Not all changes are positives as witnessed by the 1996-97 trade of Stu Barnes by the Florida Panthers to the Pittsburgh Penguins. He had a great season last year and really helped the superstar duo of Jagr - Francis make an awesome line. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Chris Wells the player they got back has done little. In fact many hockey observers see that one deal as what killed the most valuable thing the Panthers had, Chemistry! Many of the Florida players pointed to that trade as what propelled the once promising franchise into the basement of the NHL.
In the past, the big lines tended to stay together. In the 90’s the trend is for at the most two players to stay together and another player to be added to the line from any number of players depending on many factors. The third player on the line can change from game to game.
How many different players have played with Lindros & LeClair, too many to mention here. The same can be said of Kariya & Selanne, although Steve Rucchin seems to have found a home in the middle. There is really no recent line, besides the "Legion of Doom", that has stayed together for any length of time.
So unless you have a player that it is deemed he has to be paired with a particular player, don’t count on line combinations. Just use them to your advantage whenever possible. Most of your players should be on your roster for what they do for you now, not what they can potentially do for your Fantasy team.
Too many owners keep players because of trade rumors. Scott Niedermayer has been rumored in many trades involving New Jersey. Fantasy owners have salivated over what kind of points Niedermayer would put up if giving free reign to think offense. But these same owners end up over paying for this player and others like him for along time before any actual trade takes place!
Waiting for a trade to improve a player’s output is a lot like waiting for a player to be moved to a better line. It’s nice when it happens but too many points may be lost while you’re waiting.
A Fantasy hockey owner’s team that has a few players that are scoring dismally may be helped as much as the player is helped when line juggling or a trade occurs. In some Fantasy leagues, championships may be won or lost by a few points. So staying on top of trends may help you gain an edge over your opposition. Plus you can always count on at least a few Fantasy owners in every league to be less diligent than they should be and lose points because they did not spot a trend soon enough.
January 6, 1999
The National Hockey League is almost at the halfway point of the season and there have been many interesting developments that owner’s in Fantasy leagues should be aware of. Some players and teams have had surprisingly poor starts whereas others have been the opposite and had great starts. Below are some predictions for the last half of the season. Who to watch and who to watch out for and how using the correct strategy will help your Fantasy’ team finish strongly.
Paul Kariya of the Anaheim Mighty Ducks is back and proving he can hold up to the pounding of a NHL season. He has played all 36 games for Mighty Ducks and as of January 4th is only behind Joe Sakic for ice-time at over 25 minutes per game. If Kariya can remain healthy an Art Ross Trophy given to the NHL points leader wont be far behind. More importantly for Anaheim they will make the playoffs for only the second time in their brief history.
Forgive the bad week Dominik Hasek had last week, as of January 4th he is the still the Most Valuable Player in the NHL. Except for this past Saturday versus the Calgary Flames, he has started every one of the Buffalo Sabres’ 34 games this season. Not since Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux in their prime, could a single player win a Fantasy owner a championship you may now add Hasek’s name to that list. He will only get stronger, if you have him keep him.
The other goalies to watch are the Detroit Red Wings’ Chris Osgood, Montreal Canadiens’ Jeff Hackett, LA Kings’ Stephane Fiset & Vancouver Canucks’ Garth Snow.
Chris Osgood has reflected the poor start the Detroit Red Wings have had. His goals against average is a horrendous 2.71 and as of January 4th he has won only two more games than he has lost. As long as he remains the starting goalie, Osgood and Detroit will both rebound to finish strongly. There have been rumours of interest in Toronto’s holdout Felix Potvin by Detroit and also at the same time their own interest in unloading Slava Kozlov. If this were to happen Fantasy owners that have Osgood would be hurt badly no matter where he would end up.
Jeff Hackett had such a poor start that he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens. Since the trade he has lowered his overall goals against average by almost one a game. His save percentage has also come up to substantially to 0.899 from a dismal 0.871. Hackett is a much better goalie than he is given credit for and he may help turn the season around for the Canadiens. On January 4th the NHL named him the player of the week. Fantasy owners should remember he had 8 shutouts for a non-playoff Chicago team.
Stephane Fiset has been injured most of the season having appeared in only 10 games as of January 4th. His goals against average (1.93) and save percentage (0.935) are both excellent. He is now healthy and as the Kings rebound from a poor start his numbers will continue to be impressive. Fantasy owners should be aware that Fiset played in 60 games last year and had a winning record.
Garth Snow, unlike the others listed, is a goalie to watch out for. The Vancouver Canucks have started to fall down to Earth from a very surprising start. They were competitive team for the first quarter of the season. But are now in great danger of being put out of the playoff hunt as teams such as the San Jose Sharks & the LA Kings pass them. His goals against average has climbed to 2.90 and his save percentage has dipped to .904 as of January 4th, both are going in the wrong directions. Fantasy owners should be aware that the Canucks have recently welcomed back Alex Mogilny and Todd Bertuzzi is less than a month away. Those two players and whatever General Manager Brian Burke gets for Bure may fix the team for the short term, but will it be enough to help Snow, time will tell.
The Fantasy owner’s that had great starts due to a roster overloaded with rookies, are now starting to show signs of coming back to reality. Only the Vancouver Canucks Bill Muckalt is looking like he can be a starter on most Fantasy teams roster, with 23 points in 37 games. He has a five-point lead on the next best rookie. There are two other rookies to watch for that may challenge Muckalt for the Calder Trophy.
The New York Islanders’ Eric Brewer and the Ottawa Senators Marian Hossa are both talented enough to finish the season strongly. But for Brewer to win he would have to pick up a lot of points over the second half, because defensemen don’t usually win the Calder unless they rack up a ton of points.
Marian Hossa has to have a great finish ala the Boston Bruins’ Sergei Samsonov and play with more consistency to challenge for the Calder. He does have the talent to win, but he would have to put up great numbers (30 – 40 points) in the rest of the season and at such a young age (18) would be surprising.
Fantasy owners have a tendency to forget about the NHL teams the players they have play for. If a team is off to a bad start it usually affects how an individual player produces. There are exceptions like Chicago Blackhawks Tony Amonte, but in general most players numbers improve as the team improves. This is why Fantasy owners have to look at the teams doing poorly and decide if the record is for real or just a slump.
There is a tendency for Fantasy owners to react like the some real General Managers and think short term. The owners that can see the big picture may scoop themselves some great deals from other owners that are too quick to give up on players having poor starts.
If your Fantasy team is in the hunt and either on top or challenging for top spot you may have to be more conservative. If on the other hand your team really needs a kick-start you may be forced to take some chances. An example of how this strategy may work is choosing between two players one is dependable while the other one is risky but with a lot more potential.
What would you do if faced with a choice between San Jose Sharks’ Marco Sturm and Buffalo Sabres’ Dixon Ward? That is where a thoughtful strategy for any re-drafts is as important as it was for the initial draft. The conservative Fantasy owner would take Ward. Marco Sturm is a good young player but he is still inconsistent and may finish strong or collapse. With Dixon Ward the conservative Fantasy owner knows the player is dependable but has less potential than Sturm. A lot of times you have to draft strategically. Like a NHL team with a lead, it's best not to take too many risks. But if you find yourself behind you may have to gamble!
But take heart there’s still half-a-season left and that is more than enough time in most Fantasy leagues to catch-up.
January 15, 1999
The National Hockey League is the most physical professional sport played. When you then mix in high speeds, big men, razor-sharp steel and hard frozen rubber that has been known to break the 100 mile-per-hour mark. You get one area in hockey that can derail a Fantasy owner’s dreams of winning their Fantasy league and that they seemingly have no control over. That area is injuries, especially injuries to star players.
There is a way to help alleviate some of the damage to a Fantasy roster when a player is injured. Whenever possible replace the injured player with the player that takes his place on the depth-chart. If you have a choice of replacing an injury with one of a group of players that are typical 30 - 40 point performers, you may see better results with the player that is on the injured player’s team. The reason is that 30 - 40 point player can’t help but benefit from his increased role and ice time.
When the Edmonton Oilers’ star forward Doug Weight went down with a major knee injury after only playing in 4 games the Oilers season appeared to be in jeopardy. But thanks to Joseph Beranek helping to fill the void at center on the first line, the Oilers are currently in a playoff spot. Beranek got playing time and more importantly powerplay time that he would not have received with a healthy Doug Weight.
Expect Doug Weight to be a little hesitant when he does make it back and don’t rush him back into your lineup. Remember that he had a fairly serious knee injury (torn MCL), and many players in the past have taken upwards of a season to be back to the way they used to be. Weight is also the type of player that is known to have slow starts to the season; so beware this is basically the start to his season. Joseph Beranek, as of games played January 13th, has a respectable 30 points in 36 games. He is averaging around 8 points every 10 games, but that should decrease proportionally with Weight’s return to prominence.
The Vancouver Canucks Todd Bertuzzi is expected to return to the top line versus the Oilers January 14th after playing in only 10 games and recording 6 points. Fantasy owners that have any Canucks should be happy, as his return should only help other players on the team. Bertuzzi was never adequately replaced on the top line due to the teams limited depth. Unlike Weight’s injury, Bertuzzi’s was a broken leg and besides some rust should waste little time getting back to full speed.
Markus Naslund did get a chance to play on the top line with the injuries to Bertuzzi and Alex Mogilny and has responded with being named to the all-star team. Alex Mogilny is expected to be demoted to the second line but will not see any loss of power play time and will make up points with extra shifts. Mark Messier who hasn’t fully recovered from concussion and back problems should also be helped with Bertuzzi’s fast skating and big hits that should give him more room to operate.
The conventional strategy for most NHL teams is to replace an injured player with the next player on the depth chart at that position. But Ken Hitchcock, coach of the Dallas Stars, is a big believer in replacing an injured player with a similar type of player.
The knee problems second line offensive center Joe Nieuwendyk is having may be more serious than first thought. He may end up having to rest them down the stretch and has already missed Wednesday’s game versus San Jose. This should open the door to the offensively gifted Tony Hrkac who most nights has trouble getting many minutes with any one other than fourth liners. Hrkac should be a very capable fantasy player for the period of time Nieuwendyk is on the shelf and his point per game percentage should increase by 50%!
The fractured right ankle to the New Jersey Devil’s Dave Andreychuk will not have a dramatic effect on Patrik Elias who has been seeing time on the number one line. The extra ice time should still help Elias produce better numbers but he was playing a regular role unlike the case for Tony Hrkac. Still with Andreychuk’s injury expected to have him out until mid March, Elias should be even more valuable.
Philadelphia’s trade for Mikael Renberg seemed destined to put an end to Keith Jones’s time on the big line. That is until Renberg suffered a shoulder separation that is expected to have him out till mid to late January. That put Jones back on the top line and should make him a bit more valuable for Fantasy owners for a few more weeks.
A probable season ending injury to Steve Chiasson, defenseman with the Carolina Hurricanes made it necessary for the team to acquire the ancient Paul Coffey from Chicago. It is true Coffey has little left, but he can still help Fantasy owners who are willing to gamble. He has 7 points in 16 games and is a –8 and that should limit his ice time when the Hurricanes are guarding a lead. He can still help a powerplay and should rack up points there.
Replacing an injured player with a teammate makes even more sense when it comes to goalies. There are dangers for Fantasy owners automatically picking up the backup goalie to replace their injury. The danger is the team may decide the backup goalie is not good enough and replace the injured starting goalie in a trade.
The St. Louis Blues’ number one goalie Grant Fuhr played 79 games in 1995-96and 73 games in 96-97. That does not leave many games for a capable backup goalie. Last season things changed dramatically when an injury shelved Fuhr. That opened the door for McLennan who barged right through posting a great record of 16 wins, a sparkling goals against average of 2.17 and also adding 2 shutouts. The bulk of his numbers came with Fuhr injured.
The Calgary Flames have had bizarre luck when it has come to goalie injuries. They have seen 6 different goalies play games for them in 1998-99. This rash of injuries has given minor leaguer Fred Brathwaite a chance and in 3 games played as of January 13th, he has played exceptional. Brathwaite is expected to keep the number 1 job until and if Ken Wregget returns. There are however persistent rumors of Wregget’s injury being season or even career ending. The one caveat is he does play for the Flames, so if your league values goalie wins above all else look elsewhere.
There is one important rule when an injured player is ready to return. A Fantasy owner should let the returning player get a few games with his team to shake off any rust before putting him in the starting line-up. Besides rust there is another good reason for waiting, often times the player will rush back before they’re really ready to play. They then may not be fully recovered and if they re-injure themselves it usually happens within the first few games after returning. This rule should only be ignored for the superstars that can get 2 or 3 points in their first game back.
Injuries in the National Hockey League are a headache for all concerned. But since they will hit every Fantasy owner, how you react to the problem may end up deciding on how much damage is done to your Fantasy team.