The Seismic Safety Zone
Scientist of Note - Dr. Vladimir Keilis-Borok
The bend in the road in earthquake prediction is now at hand thanks to the work of Professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok and his colleagues at U.C.L.A.
Dr. Keilis-Borok is currently predicting a 6.4 or greater quake to strike in the Mohave Desert or south of there before September 5th, 2004. This follows two other important predictions including the 6.5 San Simeon earthquake which occurred on December 22, 2003 and the 8.1 Hokkaido earthquake which occurred on September 25, 2003.
This man is no stranger to earth sciences or prediction. At age 82 he has 20 years of prediction experience and a strong background in mathematical geophysics and seismology. He and his team use multidisciplinary methods including seismicity pattern recognition, geodynamics, chaos theory, seismology and statistical physics.
His team at U.C.L.A. includes three other noted scientists
Peter Shebalin, geophysicist from the Russian Academny of Sciences and Institute of Physics of the Earth in Paris; Purdue University mathematician and geophysicist Andrei Gabrielov and U.C.L.A. researcher Ilya Zalipin who's specialty is analysis of complex systems.
Russian born Keilis-Borok’s predictions are fortunately meeting with acceptance within the scientific community and also panic free acceptance from the populace of Southern California as well.
This team has proven earthquakes can be predicted months in advance when looking at site specific earthquake behavior. It doesn't mean that they will predict all future large earthquakes, however, their method is showing more promise than countless others over time.
There is nothing new in the world of seismology to which one would attribute these predictions, rather a handful of scientists who have chosen to look at a problem using information which is already available.
Petra Nova Challus
For The Seismic Safety Zone
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