____________Financial Benefits of Fuller Employment in USA

The issue is a gray area of people marginally attached to the economy. If these people were put back to work not only would it be better for their families but government revenues would go up a couple hundred billion.

_____________Labour Force Level in Best USA Cities: 2005 Benchmarks

City­­_______________Official_________Adults in_______Estimated_______Age

________________Unemployment____Labour Force__Real Unemployment__65+

__________________Percent__________Percent_________Percent____Unemployment

____________________________________________________________Adjustment

Madison_____________3.6____________74.9___________(same)_____(-2.9)

Des Moines­­­­__________4.2____________74.3___________(same)______(-1.9) Minneapolis__________5.3____________74.6___________(same)______(-3.1)

Weighted average age adjusted participation is 71.67% *

 Real Unemployment Based on 71.7% in Labour Force of Best Cities 2005

­­­­­_______________________USA May 2009

___________________Official_________Adults in_______Estimated

________________Unemployment____Labour Force__Real Unemployment

USA_________________9.7%______________65.0%________20.0%  

There’s a grey area of people currently not working, not called unemployed, but might like a job. They are not considered unemployed by statisticians as they say they are not looking for work during the government survey. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics tries to measure this group with a telephone survey and comes up with the figure of 2.5% nationally (Table A16). This is in contrast to my estimate from the actual track record of cities at full employment, an alternate analytical device, which puts it at 10.3% in 2010. The government surveys are a telephone interview which is to say the answers are spur of the moment. People drop out of the labour force and answer the poll that they are fine for now but over a period of years, long term, they will return to work if possible. The telephone surveys are not adequate to guide national economic policy by. My 71.7% benchmark participation rate is consistent in best cities across the USA, the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. This is a startling and important statistic. In these five countries the best cities labour force level went above what is considered full employment by economists. A firming local economy is all it took.  

In addition the official unemployment can be corrected for involuntary part time workers (1.7% equivalent) and involuntary part time self employed (0.7%). These figures are from the Canadian situation which is similar but has better statistics. The real unemployment in USA as of 2010 is thus 22.4%. The unemployment might be reduced from that high figure to 10.0%, the inflation point (NAIRU) with my different real unemployment numbers. The aging population is going to take another hit of 5% on the labour force by the time this could happen so the increase in people working would be 7.4%. In an economy of $14.3 trillion this is $1.06 trillion, the federal and state tax share of which would be $297 billion a year. If people became public spirited, embraced economic growth over aggressive wage increase such that inflation was cooled and the real national unemployment then went down to 5.0% the tax windfall would be $496 billion a year. In Canada you have such a public spirit and the economic expansion went on 17 years to 2008. Call the Federal Reserve Bank, we don’t want them to be the last to know.

*These benchmark cities have slightly fewer people age 65 and over so the labour force level has to be adjusted downward to 72% from their nominal 74%.