____________Financial Benefits of Fuller Employment in USA
is a gray area of people marginally attached to the economy. If these people were put back to work not only would it be better
for their families but government revenues would go up a couple hundred billion.
_____________Labour Force Level in Best USA Cities: 2005 Benchmarks
average age adjusted participation is 71.67% *
Real Unemployment Based on 71.7% in Labour Force of Best Cities
_______________________USA May 2009
a grey area of people currently not working, not called unemployed, but might like a job. They are not considered unemployed
by statisticians as they say they are not looking for work during the government survey. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics
tries to measure this group with a telephone survey and comes up with the figure of 2.5% nationally (Table A16). This is in
contrast to my estimate from the actual track record of cities at full employment, an alternate analytical device, which puts
it at 10.3% in 2010. The government surveys are a telephone interview which is to say the answers are spur of the moment.
People drop out of the labour force and answer the poll that they are fine for now but over a period of years, long term,
they will return to work if possible. The telephone surveys are not adequate to guide national economic policy by. My 71.7%
benchmark participation rate is consistent in best cities across the USA,
the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.
This is a startling and important statistic. In these five countries the best cities labour force level went above what is
considered full employment by economists. A firming local economy is all it took.
the official unemployment can be corrected for involuntary part time workers (1.7% equivalent) and involuntary part time self
employed (0.7%). These figures are from the Canadian situation which is similar but has better statistics. The real unemployment
in USA as of 2010 is thus 22.4%. The unemployment
might be reduced from that high figure to 10.0%, the inflation point (NAIRU) with my different real unemployment numbers.
The aging population is going to take another hit of 5% on the labour force by the time this could happen so the increase
in people working would be 7.4%. In an economy of $14.3 trillion this is $1.06 trillion, the federal and state tax share of
which would be $297 billion a year. If people became
public spirited, embraced economic growth over aggressive wage increase such that inflation was cooled and the real national
unemployment then went down to 5.0% the tax windfall would be $496 billion a year. In Canada you have such a public spirit and the economic expansion went on 17 years
to 2008. Call the Federal Reserve Bank, we don’t want them to be the last to know.
benchmark cities have slightly fewer people age 65 and over so the labour force level has to be adjusted downward to 72% from
their nominal 74%.